地震荷载下露天坑边坡模糊随机可靠度分析
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摘要
为探讨地震荷载下露天坑边坡的稳定性,结合可靠度分析方法及模糊数学理论对边坡工程的可靠度进行分析。以某露天坑边坡工程为例,利用拟静力法分析地震荷载下影响边坡工程可靠度的各个作用力,进而应用可靠度、模糊数学等理论对边坡工程进行可靠度分析,得到该边坡工程的随机失效概率为0.015 9,模糊失效概率为0.100 1。同时,对黏聚力c和内摩擦因数f的均值和方差进行敏感度分析,可知其取值的变化将对失效概率产生线性影响,其中模糊失效概率的敏感度较低,而随机失效概率的敏感度则相对较高。结果表明,模糊随机可靠度分析结果虽偏于保守,但它考虑不确定性因素的影响,更适用于大型工程的施工。
For the purpose of probing into stability of open-pit mine slope under seismic load,the reliability was analyzed by using reliability method and fuzzy mathematic theory.The forces acting on the slope of a certain open-pit mine under seismic load were investigated by pseudo-static method.Then,the reliability of the slope engineering was analyzed with reliability and fuzzy mathematic theory.The results show that the failure probability and fuzzy failure probability were 0.015 9 and 0.100 1,respectively.Meanwhile,the sensitivities of mean and variance for cohesion and internal friction coefficient were discussed.The results show that there is an obvious liner correlation between them.The sensitivity of fuzzy failure probability was lower than that of failure probability.The reason why the failure probability obtained by fuzzy random reliability was more less than that by random reliability is that it considered the uncertain factors influence.
For the purpose of probing into stability of open-pit mine slope under seismic load,the reliability was analyzed by using reliability method and fuzzy mathematic theory.The forces acting on the slope of a certain open-pit mine under seismic load were investigated by pseudo-static method.Then,the reliability of the slope engineering was analyzed with reliability and fuzzy mathematic theory.The results show that the failure probability and fuzzy failure probability were 0.015 9 and 0.100 1,respectively.Meanwhile,the sensitivities of mean and variance for cohesion and internal friction coefficient were discussed.The results show that there is an obvious liner correlation between them.The sensitivity of fuzzy failure probability was lower than that of failure probability.The reason why the failure probability obtained by fuzzy random reliability was more less than that by random reliability is that it considered the uncertain factors influence.
引文
[1]李炜.边坡稳定可靠性研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009.LI Wei.Study on Reliability Analysis of Slope[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2009.
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[11]王海涛,贾金青.管棚预支护条件下隧道开挖面稳定的可靠度分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11):122-127.WANG Hai-tao,JIA Jin-qing.Reliability analysis on face stability of tunnel with pipe roof reinforcement[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2011,21(11):122-127.
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[14]邓建.岩土工程结构可靠度[M].长沙:中南大学出版社,2005:56-63.DENG Jian.Structure Reliability of Geotechnical Engineering[M].Changsha:Central South University Press,2005:56-83.
[15]罗一新,李俊湘.五滚柱式超越离合器系统模糊可靠度计算[J].中国安全科学学报,2002,12(6):77-79.LUO Yi-xin,LI Jun-xiang.Calculation of the fuzzy reliability of five roller overrunning clutch system[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2002,12(6):77-79.
[16]孙杰,张晓.不同隶属函数对地下连续墙模糊可靠度影响的分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(3):838-840.SUN Jie,ZHANG Xiao.Analysis of effect of different membership function on calculation of fuzzy reliability in under-ground continuous wall[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(3):838-840.
[17]赵延喜,徐卫亚.基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估[J].岩土力学,2009,30(3):793-798.ZHAO Yan-xi,XU Wei-ya.Risk assessment of TBM construction for tunnels based on AHP and fuzzy syntheticevaluation[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(3):793-798.
[18]王飞跃.基于不确定性理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2009.WANG Fei-yue,Research on Stability Analysis and Comprehensive Assessment of the Tailing Dam Based on the Uncer-tainty Theory[D].Changsha:Central South University,2009.
[19]东戈壁钼矿露天开采岩石力学研究[R].长沙:中南大学,2011.The Rock Mechanics for Open-pit Mining at East Gobi Molybdenum mine[R].Changsha:Central South University,2011.
[20]GB18306—2001,中国地震动参数区划图[S].GB 18306—2001,Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China[S].
[2]李海波,肖克强.地震荷载作用下顺层岩质边坡安全系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(12):2386-2394.LI Hai-bo,XIAO Ke-qiang.Factor of safety analysis of beddin grock slope under seismic load[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2007,26(12):2 386-2 394.
[3]马文英,周玉娟.地震荷载动力分析与工程结构可靠度设计原理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009:15-16.MA Wen-ying,ZHOU,Yu-juan.Dynamic Analysis of Seismic Load and Reliability Design for Engineering Structures[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2009:15-16.
[4]谢桂华.岩土参数随机性分析与边坡稳定可靠度研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2009.XIE Gui-hua.Stochastic Analysis of Geotechnical Parameters and Study on Stable Reliability of Slope[D].Changsha:Central South University,2009.
[5]Dug Hun Hong,Hae Young Do.Fuzzy system reliability analysis by the use of Tω(the weakest t-norm)on fuzzynumber[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1997,90(3):307-316.
[6]Dodagoudar G R,Venkatachalam G.Reliability analysis of slopes using fuzzy sets theory[J].Computers and Geotech-nics,2000,27(4):101-115.
[7]Om Prakash Yadav,Nanua Singh.A fuzzy logic based approach to reliability improvement estimation during productdevelopment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003,80(1):63-74.
[8]LIU Yu-bin,QIAO Zhong.Fuzzy random reliability of structures based on fuzzy random variables[J].Fuzzy Sets andSystems,1997,86(3):345-355.
[9]Giasi C I,Masi P.Probabilistic and fuzzy reliability analysis of a sample slope near Aliano[J].Engineering Geology,2003,67(3-4):391-402.
[10]Harun Sonmez,Candan Gokceoglu.An application of fuzzy sets to geological strength index(GSI)system used in rockengineering[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2003,16(3):251-269.
[11]王海涛,贾金青.管棚预支护条件下隧道开挖面稳定的可靠度分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11):122-127.WANG Hai-tao,JIA Jin-qing.Reliability analysis on face stability of tunnel with pipe roof reinforcement[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2011,21(11):122-127.
[12]李东升.基于可靠度理论的边坡风险评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006.LI Dong-sheng.Slope Engineering Risk Assessment Based on Reliability Theory[D].Chongqing:ChongqingUniversity,2006.
[13]谭晓慧,王建国.边坡稳定的有限元可靠度计算及敏感性分析[J].岩石力学及工程学报,2007,26(1):115-122.TAN Xiao-hui,WANG Jian-guo.Finite element reliability computation and sensitivity analysis of slope stability[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(1):115-122.
[14]邓建.岩土工程结构可靠度[M].长沙:中南大学出版社,2005:56-63.DENG Jian.Structure Reliability of Geotechnical Engineering[M].Changsha:Central South University Press,2005:56-83.
[15]罗一新,李俊湘.五滚柱式超越离合器系统模糊可靠度计算[J].中国安全科学学报,2002,12(6):77-79.LUO Yi-xin,LI Jun-xiang.Calculation of the fuzzy reliability of five roller overrunning clutch system[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2002,12(6):77-79.
[16]孙杰,张晓.不同隶属函数对地下连续墙模糊可靠度影响的分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(3):838-840.SUN Jie,ZHANG Xiao.Analysis of effect of different membership function on calculation of fuzzy reliability in under-ground continuous wall[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(3):838-840.
[17]赵延喜,徐卫亚.基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估[J].岩土力学,2009,30(3):793-798.ZHAO Yan-xi,XU Wei-ya.Risk assessment of TBM construction for tunnels based on AHP and fuzzy syntheticevaluation[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(3):793-798.
[18]王飞跃.基于不确定性理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2009.WANG Fei-yue,Research on Stability Analysis and Comprehensive Assessment of the Tailing Dam Based on the Uncer-tainty Theory[D].Changsha:Central South University,2009.
[19]东戈壁钼矿露天开采岩石力学研究[R].长沙:中南大学,2011.The Rock Mechanics for Open-pit Mining at East Gobi Molybdenum mine[R].Changsha:Central South University,2011.
[20]GB18306—2001,中国地震动参数区划图[S].GB 18306—2001,Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China[S].
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