基于制约因素的城市应急避难场所运行能力评价指标体系构建——以汶川地震时某城市应急避难场所为例
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摘要
为改善城市应急避难场所"重规轻管,重建轻用"的现状,构建城市应急避难场所运行能力评价指标体系。基于熵流原理,分析城市应急避难场所运行制约因素的熵流类型。指出避难场所运行的制约因素,实际上就是避难场所运行管理耗散结构系统中生成正熵流的"贡献"因素。基于制约因素探讨城市避难场所运行能力评价指标筛选技术,即聚类分析、变异系数及专家评判技术组合运用。通过对汶川地震期间某城市应急避难场所运行情况的实证分析,构建35个原始指标;采用指标筛选技术筛选后形成26个指标;对26个指标构成的指标体系进行有效性评测,效度系数值为0.085,小于0.1。由此,26个指标构成了汶川地震时某城市应急避难场所运行能力的评价指标体系。
To improve present condition of urban emergency shelters——"pay attention to regulation but ignore management,pay attention to construction but ignore use",a operation capacity evaluation index system of urban emergency shelters was built.According to the principle of entropy flow,types of entropy flows of restrictive factors of urban emergency shelter were analyzed.It was pointed out that the factors restricting shelter operation capacity are the factors forming positive entropy flows of the dissipative structure system in the shelter operations management.The index that restricts city shelters run screening method are discussed.Shelter operation capacity evaluation indexes were selected by using cluster analysis,"coefficient of variation" and expert judgment.Through the analysis of the wenchuan earthquake emergency shelters,35 original indexes are constructed.By adopting the method of index screening,We have 26 indicators for effectiveness evaluation.The validity coefficient value is 0.085,less than 0.1.Therefore,we obtain an index system consisted of 26 indicators.
To improve present condition of urban emergency shelters——"pay attention to regulation but ignore management,pay attention to construction but ignore use",a operation capacity evaluation index system of urban emergency shelters was built.According to the principle of entropy flow,types of entropy flows of restrictive factors of urban emergency shelter were analyzed.It was pointed out that the factors restricting shelter operation capacity are the factors forming positive entropy flows of the dissipative structure system in the shelter operations management.The index that restricts city shelters run screening method are discussed.Shelter operation capacity evaluation indexes were selected by using cluster analysis,"coefficient of variation" and expert judgment.Through the analysis of the wenchuan earthquake emergency shelters,35 original indexes are constructed.By adopting the method of index screening,We have 26 indicators for effectiveness evaluation.The validity coefficient value is 0.085,less than 0.1.Therefore,we obtain an index system consisted of 26 indicators.
引文
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[22]王东明,黄宝森,李永佳,等.应急避难场所的规划建设-基于玉树地震调查数据的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(1):66-70.WANG Dong-ming,HUANG Bao-sen,LI Yong-jia,et al.Planning and construction of emergency shelter:A study based onsurveying data of Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(1):66-70.
[23]张江石,傅贵,郭芳,等.安全氛围测量量表研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(6):85-91.ZHANG Jiang-shi,FU Gui,GUO Fang,et al.Research on safety climate survey scale[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(6):85-91.
[2]Pine J C.Comprehensive assessment of hurricane shelters:Lessons from hurricane georges[J].Natural Hazards Reviews,2003,4(4):197-205.
[3]夏保成.西方公共安全管理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006:143-150.XIA Bao-cheng.The Western Public Security Management[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2006:143-150.
[4]王宏伟.重大突发事件的应急管理机制研究[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2010:45-51.WANG Hong-wei.Study on the Mechanism of Emergency Management to Major Emergencies[M].Beijing:Press toRenmin University of China,2010:45-51.
[5]夏保成,张平吾.公共安全管理概论[M].北京:当代中国出版社,2011:103-108.XIA Bao-cheng,ZHANG Ping-wu.Introduction to Public Security Management[M].Beijing:Contemporary ChinaPublishing House,2011:103-108.
[6]托马斯.D.费伦.应急管理操作实务[M].北京:知识产权出版社,2012:157-164.D Thomas Phelan.Practice of Emergency Management[M].Beijing:Intellectual Property Publishing House,2012:157-164.
[7]张文侯.台北市防灾避难场所之区位决策分析[D].台北:台湾大学,1997:2-8.ZHANG Wen-hou.Analysis of Location Decision-making to Disaster Shelter in Taipei City[D].Taibei:Taiwan Universi-ty,1997:2-8.
[8]蒋蓉,邱建,邓瑞.汶川地震前成都市避难场所应急能力评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(10):170-176.JIANG Rong,QIU Jian,DENG Rui.Emergency capacity assessment of earthquake emergency shelters in Chengdu citybefore wenchuan earthquake[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(10):170-176.
[9]辜智慧,庄苏玲,陈达写.城市开敞空间的避难容灾能力评价研究———以深圳市南山区为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(3):150-155.GU Zhi-hui,ZHUANG Su-ling,CHEN Da-xie.Disaster evacuation capability evaluation for urban open spaces:A casestudy in Nanshan district,Shenzhen city[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(3):150-155.
[10]吴宗之,黄典剑,蔡嗣经,等.基于模糊集值理论的城市应急避难场所应急适应能力评价方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(6):100-103.WU Zong-zhi,HUANG Dian-jian,CAI Si-jing,et al.On assessment method to emergency shelter adaptation by using thestatistic theory for fuzzy centralization[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2005,5(6):100-103.
[11]陈志芬,李强,王瑜,等.应急避难场所建设进度优化模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2):160-164.CHEN Zhi-fen,LI Qiang,WANG Yu,et al.Optimized schedule planning models for emergency shelters construction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(2):160-164.
[12]周晓猛,刘茂,王阳.紧急避难场所优化布局理论研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(增1):118-121.ZHOU Xiao-meng,LIU Mao,WANG Yang.Emergency shelter layout optimization theory[J].Journal of Safety and Envi-ronment,2006,6(S1):118-121.
[13]苏幼坡.城市应急避难与避难疏散场所[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,2006:89-93.SU You-po.City Emergency Shelter and Refuge[M].Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,2006:89-93.
[14]陈志芬,李强,王瑜,等.基于有界数据包络分析(DEA)模型的应急避难场所效率评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(11):152-158.CHEN Zhi-fen,LI Qiang,WANG Yu,et al.Efficiency assessment of emergency shelter based on bounded variables DEAmodel[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(11):152-158.
[15]钱洪伟.应急避难场所规划环境影响评价体系初探[J].防灾科技学院学报,2010,12(3):1-5.QIAN Hong-wei.Study of environmental impact assessmental theories and methods in emergency shelters[J].Journal ofInstitute of Disaster-prevention Science and Technology,2010,12(3):1-5.
[16]吴彤.自组织方法论研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001:45-49.WU Tong.Research on Self-organization Method[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2001:45-49.
[17]胡卫健.日本新澙县区域防灾规则[M].北京:中国地质大学出版社,2011:129-135.HU Wei-jian.Regional Disaster Prevention Rules of Niigata Prefecture in Japan[M].Beijing:China University of Geosci-ences Press,2011:129-135.
[18]曲福恒.模糊聚类算法用应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011:87-90.QU Fu-heng.Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm with Applications[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2011:87-90.
[19]贾建华.谱聚类集成算法研究[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2011:102-105.JIA Jian-hua.Research on the Algorithm of Integration to Spectral Clustering[M].Tianjin:Tianjin University Press,2011:102-105.
[20]于梅子,纪颖,唐芹,等.应用德尔菲法构建公众健康传播材料筛选指标体系[J].中国健康教育,2011,27(4):278.YU Mei-zi,JI Ying,TANG Qin,et al.Study on applying delphi method for screening indicator system of public healthdissem ination material[J].Chinese Journal of Health Education,2011,27(4):278.
[21]李随成,陈敬东,赵海刚.定性决策指标体系评价研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(9):22-28.LI Sui-cheng,CHEN Jing-dong,ZHAO Hai-gang.Studying on the method of appraising qualitative decision indicationsystem[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2001,21(9):22-28.
[22]王东明,黄宝森,李永佳,等.应急避难场所的规划建设-基于玉树地震调查数据的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(1):66-70.WANG Dong-ming,HUANG Bao-sen,LI Yong-jia,et al.Planning and construction of emergency shelter:A study based onsurveying data of Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(1):66-70.
[23]张江石,傅贵,郭芳,等.安全氛围测量量表研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(6):85-91.ZHANG Jiang-shi,FU Gui,GUO Fang,et al.Research on safety climate survey scale[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(6):85-91.
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