考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害风险评估
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摘要
研究网络层面的地震灾害风险评估模型和方法,对于提高电力系统的抗灾能力至关重要,而中国在这些方面的研究尚不完善。分析地震灾害的特点,提出考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害分析思路及理论框架;基于场地地震动值的估算方法,建立元件损坏概率模型;综合考虑网络结构和运行情况对电力系统抗震性能的影响,提出电力系统地震灾害风险评估算法和指标体系,并通过熵权综合评价各指标对节点抗灾能力的影响,计算出节点的综合灾害风险指标。实际电网算例验证说明:所提算法是切实可行的,能寻找系统的薄弱环节,有助于提高电网的抗震性能。
Network’s risk-assessment model and method are crucial for improving power system’s safety under seismic disaster.The research in this field in China is still not perfect.Characteristics of seismic disaster were analyzed,and analysis method and theoretical framework of seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure were proposed.Element damage probability model was established based on ground shaking prediction method.Considering the influence of network structure and operation conditions,seismic disaster risk-evaluation algorithm and risk indices for power systems were proposed.Entropy weight was applied to evaluate the effects of indices on nodes’ anti-disaster ability and nodes’ comprehensive disaster-risk indices were calculated.The calculation examples of actual power systems show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and it can find system’s weak links,and this helps to improve the power grid’s anti-seismic performance.
Network’s risk-assessment model and method are crucial for improving power system’s safety under seismic disaster.The research in this field in China is still not perfect.Characteristics of seismic disaster were analyzed,and analysis method and theoretical framework of seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure were proposed.Element damage probability model was established based on ground shaking prediction method.Considering the influence of network structure and operation conditions,seismic disaster risk-evaluation algorithm and risk indices for power systems were proposed.Entropy weight was applied to evaluate the effects of indices on nodes’ anti-disaster ability and nodes’ comprehensive disaster-risk indices were calculated.The calculation examples of actual power systems show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and it can find system’s weak links,and this helps to improve the power grid’s anti-seismic performance.
引文
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[15]贺海磊,郭剑波,谢强.电气设备的地震灾害易损性分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(4):25-28.He Hailei,Guo Jianbo,Xie Qiang.Vulnerability analysisof power equipments caused by earthquake disaster[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(4):25-28(inChinese).
[16]中华人民共和国电力行业标准.GB12325-90电能质量供电电压允许偏差[S].北京:中国电力出版社,1990.Electric Power Industry Standard of People’s Republic ofChina.GB12325-90 Quality of electric energy admissibledeviation of voltage[S].Beijing:China Electric PowerPress,1990(in Chinese).
[17]张星.自然灾害灾情的熵权综合评价模型[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):189-192.Zhang Xing.Entropy weight theory-based integratedevaluation model of natural disaster[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2009,18(6):189-192(in Chinese).
[18]四川省电力公司.四川电力系统2010年度运行方式[R].成都:四川省电力公司,2010.Sichuan Electric Power Company.Operation mode ofSichuan power grid in 2010[R].Chengdu:SichuanElectric Power Company,2010(in Chinese).
[19]刘浪.汶川地震地震动衰减特性分析[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2010.Liu Lang.Analysis about characteristics of ground motionattenuation of Wenchuan earthquake[D].Harbin:Instituteof Engineering Mechanics,China EarthquakeAdministration,2010(in Chinese).
[2]李文沅.电力系统风险评估模型、方法和应用[M].北京科学出版社,2006:10-33,67-71.Li Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems modelsmethods and applications[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006:10-33,67-71(in Chinese).
[3]Ang A H S,Pires J,Villaverde R,et al.Seismicprobabilistic reliability assessment of electric powertransmission systems[J].Reliability Engineering andSystem Safety,1996,51(1):7-22.
[4]Vanzi I.Seismic reliability of electric power networks:methodology and application[J].Structural Safety,1996,18(4):311-327.
[5]Lju G Y,Lju C W,Wang Y J.A study on seismic responseand vulnerability of electric power system[C]//SecondProceeding of Japan-Taiwan Workshop on LifelinePerformance and Disaster Mitigation.Kobe,Japan:Japan-Taiwan Workshop,2002:176-183.
[6]刘季宇,汪以仁,刘志文.电力系统震害风险分析与减灾策略工具之研究[R].台北:国家地震工程研究中心,2008.Liu Jiyu,Wang Yiren,Liu Zhiwen.A study on the seismicperformance of electricpower systems and preliminarymodeling of power restoration in post-earthquakeconditions[R].Taibei:National Center for Research onEarthquake Engineering,2008(in Chinese).
[7]文波,牛荻涛,赵鹏.变电站抗震性能研究综述[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2007,29(6):73-77.Wen Bo,Niu Ditao,Zhao Peng.Review of substationseismic performance research[J].Earthquake ResistantEngineering and Retrofitting,2007,29(6):73-77(inChinese).
[8]何军,李杰.大型相关失效工程网络系统可靠度的近似算法[J].计算力学学报,2003,20(3):261-266.He Jun,Li Jie.Approximate method for large engineeringnetwork system with correlation failure[J].ChineseJournal of Computational Mechanics,2003,20(3):261-266(in Chinese).
[9]柳春光,李秀菊.电力供应系统地震功能失效问题研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(2):86-90.Liu Chunguang,Li Xiuju.Studies on seismic functionfailure of electrid power supply system[J].EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,2003,23(2):86-90(in Chinese).
[10]丰飞.电力供应系统地震安全分析与控制[D].大连:大连理工大学.2006.Feng Fei.Seismic security analysis and control of powersupply system[D].Dalian:Dalian University ofTechnology,2006(in Chinese).
[11]高玉峰,张健.地震危险性分析研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:9-35.Gao Yufeng,Zhang Jian.Seismic risk analysisresearch[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007:9-35(inChinese).
[12]马玉宏,赵桂峰.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:79-91.Ma Yuhong,Zhao Guifeng.Earthquake risk analysis andmanagement[M].Beijing:Science Press,2008:79-91(inChinese).
[13]刘春光,林皋,李宏男,等.生命线地震工程导论[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005:180-197.Liu Chunguang,Lin Gao,Li Hongnan,et al.Introductionto lifeline earthquake engineering[M].Dalian:DalianUniversity of Technology Press,2005:180-197(inChinese).
[14]张明媛,袁永博,周晶.基于网络均衡性的生命线系统抗灾能力分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2009,28(2):228-230.Zhang Mingyuan,Yuan Yongbo,Zhou Jing.Analysis ofanti-disaster ability of lifeline network system based onproportionality[J].Journal of Liaoning TechnicalUniversity,2009,28(2):228-230(in Chinese).
[15]贺海磊,郭剑波,谢强.电气设备的地震灾害易损性分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(4):25-28.He Hailei,Guo Jianbo,Xie Qiang.Vulnerability analysisof power equipments caused by earthquake disaster[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(4):25-28(inChinese).
[16]中华人民共和国电力行业标准.GB12325-90电能质量供电电压允许偏差[S].北京:中国电力出版社,1990.Electric Power Industry Standard of People’s Republic ofChina.GB12325-90 Quality of electric energy admissibledeviation of voltage[S].Beijing:China Electric PowerPress,1990(in Chinese).
[17]张星.自然灾害灾情的熵权综合评价模型[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):189-192.Zhang Xing.Entropy weight theory-based integratedevaluation model of natural disaster[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2009,18(6):189-192(in Chinese).
[18]四川省电力公司.四川电力系统2010年度运行方式[R].成都:四川省电力公司,2010.Sichuan Electric Power Company.Operation mode ofSichuan power grid in 2010[R].Chengdu:SichuanElectric Power Company,2010(in Chinese).
[19]刘浪.汶川地震地震动衰减特性分析[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2010.Liu Lang.Analysis about characteristics of ground motionattenuation of Wenchuan earthquake[D].Harbin:Instituteof Engineering Mechanics,China EarthquakeAdministration,2010(in Chinese).
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