基于变形的土石坝地震风险分析
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摘要
土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。
The seismic safety design of an earth-rock dam usually focuses on how to prevent its structure from collapsing,which makes the issue about how to control the structural damage of an earth-rock dam within an acceptable risk level,an important topic worth researching in the field of geotechnical engineering.By applying the theory of seismic risk analysis to practice,this paper witnesses the establishment of a method of seismic risk analysis particularly designed for earth-rock dams.The method explores the seismic risk from three aspects: the seismic hazard analysis,the seismic fragility analysis and the seismic loss assessment.On the basis of the site seismic risk analysis,the ideology of performance-based seismic design is successfully realized in the seismic fragility analysis of an earth-rock dam.The seismic damage level for an earth-rock dam is classified according to the specific condition of the relative settlement of the dam crest which serves as an evaluation index.Finally,with the help of seismic economic losses analysis,a seismic risk model for earth-rock dams is established,which can be used for evaluating the seismic damage risk of an earth-rock dam in terms of technology and economy.This paper also takes a high earth-rock dam for example to analyze and predict its seismic damages and economic losses in an earthquake,using the proposed model.The conclusion of such analysis and prediction can provide a valuable reference for safety evaluations of earth-rock dams and investment decisions,especially when an earth-rock dam is located in an area endangered by possible earthquakes.
The seismic safety design of an earth-rock dam usually focuses on how to prevent its structure from collapsing,which makes the issue about how to control the structural damage of an earth-rock dam within an acceptable risk level,an important topic worth researching in the field of geotechnical engineering.By applying the theory of seismic risk analysis to practice,this paper witnesses the establishment of a method of seismic risk analysis particularly designed for earth-rock dams.The method explores the seismic risk from three aspects: the seismic hazard analysis,the seismic fragility analysis and the seismic loss assessment.On the basis of the site seismic risk analysis,the ideology of performance-based seismic design is successfully realized in the seismic fragility analysis of an earth-rock dam.The seismic damage level for an earth-rock dam is classified according to the specific condition of the relative settlement of the dam crest which serves as an evaluation index.Finally,with the help of seismic economic losses analysis,a seismic risk model for earth-rock dams is established,which can be used for evaluating the seismic damage risk of an earth-rock dam in terms of technology and economy.This paper also takes a high earth-rock dam for example to analyze and predict its seismic damages and economic losses in an earthquake,using the proposed model.The conclusion of such analysis and prediction can provide a valuable reference for safety evaluations of earth-rock dams and investment decisions,especially when an earth-rock dam is located in an area endangered by possible earthquakes.
引文
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[10]袁一凡,苗崇刚,宋立军,等.GB/T 18208.4-2005地震现场工作(第4部分):灾害直接损失评估[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.
[11]ANCOLD.Guidelines on risk assessment[M].Tatura:Australian National Committee on Large Dams,2003.
[12]SEED H B,MAKDISI F I,DE ALBA P A.The performance of earth dam during earthquakes[J].Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division,1978,104(7):967-994.
[13]沈怀至,金峰,张楚汉.基于功能的混凝土重力坝抗震风险模型研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(12):3323-3328.SHEN Huai-zhi,JIN Feng,ZHANG Chu-han.Performance-based seismic risk analysis model of concrete gravity dams[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(12):3323-3328.
[2]GUAN ZHICHENG.Investigation of the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake damages to the Zipingpu water control project and an assessment of its safety state[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2009,52(4):820-834.
[3]MOEHLE J P.Displacement based design of RC structure subjected to earthquakes[J].Earthquake Spectra,1992,8(3):403-428.
[4]张楚汉,金峰,沈怀至,等.基于功能的高坝抗震安全与风险评价[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2004.
[5]吕大刚,李晓鹏,王光远.基于可靠度和性能的结构整体地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):107-114.LüDa-gang,LI Xiao-peng,WANG Guang-yuan.Global seismic fragility analysis of structures based on reliability and performance[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(2):107-114.
[6]李红军,迟世春,林皋,等.高土石坝地震永久变形研究评述[J].水利学报,2007,(增刊):178-183.LI Hong-jun,CHI Shi-chun,LIN Gao.et al.Review on the seismically permanent deformation of high earth rock-fill dams[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,(Supp.):178-183.
[7]SWAISGOOD J R.Embankment dam deformations caused by earthquakes[CD-ROM]//2003 Pacific Con-ference on Earthquake Engineering.Christchurch:[s.n.].2003.
[8]李永红,王平,曹荣.汶川地震中高土石坝震损初步分析[C]//汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究.北京:科学出版社,2009.
[9]刘汉龙.随机地震作用下地基及土石坝永久变形分析[J].岩土工程学报,1996,18(3):19-27.LIU Han-long.Permanent deformation of foundation and embankment dam due to stochastic seismic excitation[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1996,18(3):19-27.
[10]袁一凡,苗崇刚,宋立军,等.GB/T 18208.4-2005地震现场工作(第4部分):灾害直接损失评估[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.
[11]ANCOLD.Guidelines on risk assessment[M].Tatura:Australian National Committee on Large Dams,2003.
[12]SEED H B,MAKDISI F I,DE ALBA P A.The performance of earth dam during earthquakes[J].Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division,1978,104(7):967-994.
[13]沈怀至,金峰,张楚汉.基于功能的混凝土重力坝抗震风险模型研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(12):3323-3328.SHEN Huai-zhi,JIN Feng,ZHANG Chu-han.Performance-based seismic risk analysis model of concrete gravity dams[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(12):3323-3328.
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