东北地区M≥5.0地震前中等地震集中活动的震兆研究
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摘要
定义了描述东北地区中等地震活动增强的3个参量E、T和R,并对东北地区11次M≥5.0地震进行了统计分析。结果显示,东北地区地震活动具有明显的区域性特点:辽宁地区和嫩江断裂以西地区M≥5.0地震前均存在4级地震集中活动的现象,且预期的5级以上地震大部分发生在最近1次4级地震后的半年内;嫩江断裂以东地区5级地震前没有中等地震集中活动的特征。ETR方法在中等地震活跃后判定未来5级地震的震中时具有一定的指示意义。
In this paper,three parameters(E,T,and R) were used as tools to describe the activities of moderate earthquakes defined by statistical analysis of 11 earthquakes(M≥5.0) in the northeast region of China.The results showed that seismic activity in this area had obvious regional characteristics such that intense seismic activity of ML≥4.0 earthquakes was observed prior to all M≥5.0 earthquakes in Liaoning and to the west of the Nenjiang fracture.The final moderate earthquakes prior to the M≥5.0 earthquakes generally occurred within six months.The interval average was three months;the shortest period was 0.7 month in Liaoning Province.In addition,the interval ranged from two to nine months with a four-month average west of the Nenjiang fracture.However,intensive moderate earthquake activity was not observed prior to M≥5.0 earthquakes east of the fracture.The probability of the expected M≥5.0 earthquake occurring in the area of Yingkou-Haicheng-Xiuyan was more than 75%,which was accompanied by enhanced moderate earthquake intensity.If a foreshock sequence existed,its epicenter was located in the scope of 22 km near the larger earthquake.Essentially,the epicenter of M≥ 5.0 earthquake occurring to the west of the Nenjiang fracture was located in the vicinity of the initial or latest moderate earthquake area,at a distance of 11~67 km.Therefore,the ETR method has some significance in determining the epicenter of next M≥5.0 earthquake after the occurrence of moderate seismic activity.
引文
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