基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险应用研究
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摘要
在采用全概率方法的基于性能的地震工程研究中,定量反映地震作用和工程结构中存在的不确定性是研究的关键。利用地震易损性和地震风险的概率解析函数,针对一栋按我国相关规范设计的五层三跨钢筋混凝土框架结构进行了地震易损性分析和风险评估。采用100条实际地震动作为输入以考虑地震动的不确定性,提出了基于控制变换拉丁超立方体抽样技术的随机Pushover方法以考虑结构不确定性对其抗震能力的影响。结果表明:算例结构在50年内发生完全破坏的概率不超过2%,发生严重破坏的概率不超过10%,发生轻微破坏的概率基本不超过63.2%,基本满足我国"小震不坏、中震可修、大震不倒"的三水准要求。
For the performance-based earthquake engineering( PBEE) based on the total probability method,it is the key issue to quantitatively consider the influences of the uncertainties on earthquake actions and structures. Using the analytical functions of seismic fragility and probabilistic seismic risk,a five-story and three-bay reinforced concrete( RC) frame structure which was designed according to the current Chinese codes was selected as the study case to conduct seismic fragility assessment and seismic risk evaluation. One hundred real ground motions were selected as inputs to incorporate the earthquake uncertainty; and a random Pushover method based on a transformation controlled Latin hypecube sampling was proposed to determine the influences of structural uncertainties on the corresponding capacity. The results show that the case-study frame approximately has no more than 63. 2% exceeding probability of light damage,no more than 10% exceeding probability of medium damage; and no more than 2% exceeding probability of severe damage in 50-year period. Consequently,the case frame approximately satisfies the three-level requirements defined in the seismic design code,i. e.,no damage under minor earthquake,no un-repaired damage under moderate earthquake,and no collapse under major earthquake.
For the performance-based earthquake engineering( PBEE) based on the total probability method,it is the key issue to quantitatively consider the influences of the uncertainties on earthquake actions and structures. Using the analytical functions of seismic fragility and probabilistic seismic risk,a five-story and three-bay reinforced concrete( RC) frame structure which was designed according to the current Chinese codes was selected as the study case to conduct seismic fragility assessment and seismic risk evaluation. One hundred real ground motions were selected as inputs to incorporate the earthquake uncertainty; and a random Pushover method based on a transformation controlled Latin hypecube sampling was proposed to determine the influences of structural uncertainties on the corresponding capacity. The results show that the case-study frame approximately has no more than 63. 2% exceeding probability of light damage,no more than 10% exceeding probability of medium damage; and no more than 2% exceeding probability of severe damage in 50-year period. Consequently,the case frame approximately satisfies the three-level requirements defined in the seismic design code,i. e.,no damage under minor earthquake,no un-repaired damage under moderate earthquake,and no collapse under major earthquake.
引文
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[2]刘晶波,刘阳冰,闫秋实,韩强.基于性能的方钢管混凝土框架结构的地震易损性分析[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(2):39-47.(Liu Jingbo,Liu Yangbing,Yan Qiushi,Han Qiang.Performance-based seismic fragility analysis of CFST frame structures[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2010,43(2):39-47.(in Chinese))
[3]周靖,罗高杰,方小丹.强震作用下竖向不规则RC框架结构抗震易损性分析[J].建筑结构学报,2011,32(11):134-142.(ZHOU Jing,LUO Gaojie,FANG Xiaodan.Fragility analysis of vertical irregular reinforced concrete frame structures subjected to pulselike ground motion[J].Journal of Building Structures,2011,32(11):134-142.(in Chinese))
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[6]吕大刚,李晓鹏,王光远.基于可靠度和性能的结构整体地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):107-114.(LDa-gang,LI Xiao-peng,WANG Guang-yuan.Global seismic fragility analysis of structures based on reliability and performance[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(2):107-114.(in Chinese))
[7]吕大刚,王光远.基于可靠度和灵敏度的结构局部地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):157-162.(LDa-gang,WANG Guang-yuan.Local seismic fragility analysis of structures based on reliability and sensitivity[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(4):157-162.(in Chinese))
[8]吕大刚,于晓辉.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究[J].建筑结构学报,2013,34(10):41-48.(LDagang,YU Xiaohui.Theoretical study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):41-48.(in Chinese))
[9]于晓辉,吕大刚.考虑结构不确定性的地震倒塌易损性分析[J].建筑结构学报,2012,33(10):8-14.(YU Xiaohui,LDagang.Seismic collapse fragility analysis considering structural uncertainties[J].Journal of Building Structures,2012,33(10):8-14.(in Chinese))
[10]吕大刚,于晓辉,王光远.基于改进云图法的结构概率地震需求分析[J].世界地震工程,2010,20(1):7-15.(LDagang,YU Xiaohui,WANG Guangyuan.Probabilistic seismic demand analysis of structures based on an improved cloud method[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2010,20(1):7-15.(in Chinese))
[11]Medina R,Krawinkler H.Seismic demands for nondeteriorating frame structures and their dependence on ground motions[R].PEER Report:2003/15.Berkeley,CA:University of California.Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center,2003.
[12]ATC-63 Quantification of building seismic performance factors[S].Redwood City,California:Applied Technology Council,2008.
[13]Joyner W B,Boore D M.Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley,California,Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1981,71(6):2011-2038.
[14]Campbell K W.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration,peak ground velocity,and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].Seismological Research Letter,1997,68(1):154-179.
[15]Power M,Chiou B,Abrahamson N Bozorgnia,Shantz T,Roblee C.An overview of the NGA project[J].Earthquake Spectra,2008,24(1):3-22.
[16]Chiou B,Darragh R,Gregor N,Silva W.NGA project strong-motion database[J].Earthquake Spectra,2008,24(1):23-44.
[17]Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center.PEER strong motion database[DB/OL].2011-04-01.http://peer.berkeley.edu/nga.
[18]LU Dagang,Yu Xiaohui,Jia Mingming,Wang Guangyuan.Seismic risk assessment for a reinforced concrete frame designed according to Chinese codes[J].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.2013.(DOI:10.1080/15732479.2013.791326.)
[19]Barbato M,Gu Q,Conte J P.Probabilistic Pushover analysis of structural and soil-structure systems[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,2010,136(11):1330-1341.
[20]于晓辉,吕大刚,王光远.多级力控制随机Pushover方法[J].工程力学,2010,27(增刊1):6-10.(YU Xiaohui,LU Dagang,WANG Guangyuan.Multi-level force controlled random Pushover analysis[J].Engineering Mechanics,2010,27(Suppl.1):6-10.(in Chinese))
[21]Olsson A M J,Sandberg G E.Latin hypercube sampling for stochastic finite element analysis[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,ASCE,2002,128(1):121-125.
[22]GB 50011—2010建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2010.(GB 50011—2010 Code for seismic design of buildings[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2010.(in Chinese))
[23]FEMA 350 Recommended seismic design criteria for new steel moment-frame buildings[R].Washington DC:Federal Emergency Management Agency,2000.
[24]Dolsek M,Fajfar P.Effects of masonry infills on the seismic response of a four storey reinforced concrete frame:a probabilistic assessment[J].Engineering Structures,2008,30(11):3186-3192.
[2]刘晶波,刘阳冰,闫秋实,韩强.基于性能的方钢管混凝土框架结构的地震易损性分析[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(2):39-47.(Liu Jingbo,Liu Yangbing,Yan Qiushi,Han Qiang.Performance-based seismic fragility analysis of CFST frame structures[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2010,43(2):39-47.(in Chinese))
[3]周靖,罗高杰,方小丹.强震作用下竖向不规则RC框架结构抗震易损性分析[J].建筑结构学报,2011,32(11):134-142.(ZHOU Jing,LUO Gaojie,FANG Xiaodan.Fragility analysis of vertical irregular reinforced concrete frame structures subjected to pulselike ground motion[J].Journal of Building Structures,2011,32(11):134-142.(in Chinese))
[4]韩淼,那国坤.基于增量动力法的剪力墙结构地震易损性分析[J].世界地震工程,2011,27(3):108-113.(HAN Miao,NA Guokun.Seismic fragility analysis of shear wall structure by using incremental dynamic method[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2011,27(3):108-113.(in Chinese))
[5]韩淼,李守静.基于能力谱法的框架-剪力墙结构地震易损性分析[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(增刊1):108-112.(Han Miao,Li Shoujing.Seismic fragility analysis for frame-shear wall structure based on capacity spectrum method[J].2010,43(Suppl.1):108-112.(in Chinese))
[6]吕大刚,李晓鹏,王光远.基于可靠度和性能的结构整体地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):107-114.(LDa-gang,LI Xiao-peng,WANG Guang-yuan.Global seismic fragility analysis of structures based on reliability and performance[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(2):107-114.(in Chinese))
[7]吕大刚,王光远.基于可靠度和灵敏度的结构局部地震易损性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):157-162.(LDa-gang,WANG Guang-yuan.Local seismic fragility analysis of structures based on reliability and sensitivity[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(4):157-162.(in Chinese))
[8]吕大刚,于晓辉.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究[J].建筑结构学报,2013,34(10):41-48.(LDagang,YU Xiaohui.Theoretical study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):41-48.(in Chinese))
[9]于晓辉,吕大刚.考虑结构不确定性的地震倒塌易损性分析[J].建筑结构学报,2012,33(10):8-14.(YU Xiaohui,LDagang.Seismic collapse fragility analysis considering structural uncertainties[J].Journal of Building Structures,2012,33(10):8-14.(in Chinese))
[10]吕大刚,于晓辉,王光远.基于改进云图法的结构概率地震需求分析[J].世界地震工程,2010,20(1):7-15.(LDagang,YU Xiaohui,WANG Guangyuan.Probabilistic seismic demand analysis of structures based on an improved cloud method[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2010,20(1):7-15.(in Chinese))
[11]Medina R,Krawinkler H.Seismic demands for nondeteriorating frame structures and their dependence on ground motions[R].PEER Report:2003/15.Berkeley,CA:University of California.Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center,2003.
[12]ATC-63 Quantification of building seismic performance factors[S].Redwood City,California:Applied Technology Council,2008.
[13]Joyner W B,Boore D M.Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley,California,Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1981,71(6):2011-2038.
[14]Campbell K W.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration,peak ground velocity,and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].Seismological Research Letter,1997,68(1):154-179.
[15]Power M,Chiou B,Abrahamson N Bozorgnia,Shantz T,Roblee C.An overview of the NGA project[J].Earthquake Spectra,2008,24(1):3-22.
[16]Chiou B,Darragh R,Gregor N,Silva W.NGA project strong-motion database[J].Earthquake Spectra,2008,24(1):23-44.
[17]Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center.PEER strong motion database[DB/OL].2011-04-01.http://peer.berkeley.edu/nga.
[18]LU Dagang,Yu Xiaohui,Jia Mingming,Wang Guangyuan.Seismic risk assessment for a reinforced concrete frame designed according to Chinese codes[J].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.2013.(DOI:10.1080/15732479.2013.791326.)
[19]Barbato M,Gu Q,Conte J P.Probabilistic Pushover analysis of structural and soil-structure systems[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,2010,136(11):1330-1341.
[20]于晓辉,吕大刚,王光远.多级力控制随机Pushover方法[J].工程力学,2010,27(增刊1):6-10.(YU Xiaohui,LU Dagang,WANG Guangyuan.Multi-level force controlled random Pushover analysis[J].Engineering Mechanics,2010,27(Suppl.1):6-10.(in Chinese))
[21]Olsson A M J,Sandberg G E.Latin hypercube sampling for stochastic finite element analysis[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,ASCE,2002,128(1):121-125.
[22]GB 50011—2010建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2010.(GB 50011—2010 Code for seismic design of buildings[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2010.(in Chinese))
[23]FEMA 350 Recommended seismic design criteria for new steel moment-frame buildings[R].Washington DC:Federal Emergency Management Agency,2000.
[24]Dolsek M,Fajfar P.Effects of masonry infills on the seismic response of a four storey reinforced concrete frame:a probabilistic assessment[J].Engineering Structures,2008,30(11):3186-3192.
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