芦山地震水库震害考察及灾区大坝总风险评估
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摘要
为全面了解四川芦山7.0级强烈地震对灾区水库的震害影响,对地震重灾区宝兴县及天全县9座水库进行实地震害考察,并给出水库震害程度初步评价。调查及分析显示,水库典型震害现象为大坝附属结构的变形和破坏、坝体渗漏增加及库区滑坡崩塌等地质灾害引发的间接损害,大坝主体保持完好或基本完好。整体来看,除个别小型水库震损严重甚至损毁外,大多数水坝经受了强地震的考验。同时,为进一步分析大坝在地震中存在的潜在风险,引入Bureau大坝地震总风险分析方法,并结合地区大坝建设及经济人口情况对坝高和下游损失风险因子进行了适当调整,应用于芦山地震灾区19座不同类型大坝进行地震总风险评级。结果显示,大坝整体处于中等风险级别,符合考察实情及决策经验,可进一步为大坝震害评估和水库的除险加固决策等提供参考。
A field survey was conducted within the earthquake-stricken area to investigate the damages to dams and reservoirs caused by the Lushan M 7.0 earthquake.Based on the survey results,a preliminary damage evaluation of 9 selected reservoirs in Baoxing and Tianquan counties was also performed.Field survey indicated that typical damages to these dams included the deformation and failure of subsidiary structures,dam seepage,and indirect damage caused by geological disasters such as landslides and collapse,whereas the main structures of most dams remained intact or largely intact.To further analyze potential risks to dams caused by the earthquake,the risk analysis method of Bureau(2003) was modified to dam height risk factor and downstream hazard factor based on dam construction,local economy,and population,and employed to calculate the total seismic risks of 19 dams in the quake-hit areas.Result indicated that the overall risk level of the dams in the earthquake-stricken area ranked moderate,which was consistent with the field investigation results.The total seismic risk analysis can be useful for further damage assessment and post-quake reinforcement of dams.
引文
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