印尼M_W9.0地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆──HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨
摘要
新研制的抗干扰高精度PS100大地电测仪器系统,在中国川滇地区的台站上记录到印尼MW9.0海啸地震的地电前兆。本文将分析论证地电前兆的波动特性,特别是其传播规律。在印尼地震前约3个月开始出现周期等于潮汐力周期(如MSf、K1、M2等)、振幅异常增大的地电潮汐力谐振波(Harmonie waves driven by tidal frces,简称HT波);地震前2天(北京时2004年12月24日10时)出现地电潮汐力共振波(Resonancewaves driven by tidal frces,简称RT波)。RT波有纵波和横波,初步确定纵波速度Vl≈307 km/h;横波速度Vt≈126 km/h,是一种在地壳多孔岩石孔隙流体中传播的声波。其固有振动周期T0=4~5 h;其振幅很大达2.9%(超出观测标准偏差17倍),异常极为显著;峰值异常尖锐,Q≈8.3。与地震同时从震源发出的RT波为断层破裂所激发,故推断地震前2天所出现的RT波系MW9.0地震震源区断层前期破裂所致。在可预见的将来,根据震前RT波出现的时间,台站所记纵、横波的到时差及T0,对强震在震前1~3天定量预测其三要素(如果有一布设合理的PS100台网)是可能的。
Four sets of PS100,a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric measurement system,have been stationed in Sichuan and Yunnan and recorded the harmonic resonance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces(HRT wave ) prior to the M_W9.0 Sumatra earthquake.At resonance T=T_0,where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero,the RT wave peak will be very large,sharp and an earthquake will impend within 1~3 days.As preliminarily estimated,the phase velocity of the RT longitudinal waves is V_l=307 km/h and the virtual wave veocity V_v=(V_l×V_t)/(V_l-V_t) is 207 km/h.Hence,as long as the arrival time difference of the 2 RT waves at one station is known,it is possible to calculate the epicentral distance of a coming earthquake quantitatively.For the Sumatra earthquake,the free period of oscillation is T_0=4~5 h,from which the magnitude of the coming earthquake can be determined.Both the arrival time difference and the virtual wave velocity during and before the earthquake are almost equal to each other,the RT waves during the earthquake were emitted by the fault failure,and the RT waves appearing 2 days before the earthquake were emitted by the early failure of the fault in the hypocenter region of the earthquake.If we have a reasonably designed the PS100 network,it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three elements of a coming earthquake.
Four sets of PS100,a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric measurement system,have been stationed in Sichuan and Yunnan and recorded the harmonic resonance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces(HRT wave ) prior to the M_W9.0 Sumatra earthquake.At resonance T=T_0,where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero,the RT wave peak will be very large,sharp and an earthquake will impend within 1~3 days.As preliminarily estimated,the phase velocity of the RT longitudinal waves is V_l=307 km/h and the virtual wave veocity V_v=(V_l×V_t)/(V_l-V_t) is 207 km/h.Hence,as long as the arrival time difference of the 2 RT waves at one station is known,it is possible to calculate the epicentral distance of a coming earthquake quantitatively.For the Sumatra earthquake,the free period of oscillation is T_0=4~5 h,from which the magnitude of the coming earthquake can be determined.Both the arrival time difference and the virtual wave velocity during and before the earthquake are almost equal to each other,the RT waves during the earthquake were emitted by the fault failure,and the RT waves appearing 2 days before the earthquake were emitted by the early failure of the fault in the hypocenter region of the earthquake.If we have a reasonably designed the PS100 network,it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three elements of a coming earthquake.
引文
[1]Zhao Y L,Q ian F Y.Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China.Tectonophysics,1994,233:99-113
[2]钱复业,赵玉林.地电阻率季节干扰变化分析.地震学报,1987,9(3):289-302
[3]Lu J,Q ian F y,Zhao Y L.Sensitivity analysis of the Schlumberger mon itoring array:application to changes ofresistivity prior to the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan,China.Tectonophysics,1999,238:397-405
[4]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山7.8级强震前震中周围形变电阻率的下降异常.地球物理学报,1978,21(3):181-190
[5]钱复业,赵玉林,于谋明,等.地震前地电阻率异常变化.中国科学(B辑),1982(9):831-839
[6]钱复业,赵玉林,赴成达.唐山地震前、后震中周围浅部地电阻率与地下水位变化等因素的关系.地震学报,1981,3(2):135-142
[7]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Lu J.Georesistirity Precursors to the Tangshan earthquake of 1976.Anneli,d i Goofisica,1997,XL(2):251-260
[8]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L and Huang Y N.Calculation of the parameters of georesistivity an isotropy and case history ofearthquake precursors.Acta Seismologica Sin ica,1996,18(4):480-488(in Chinese);1996,9(4):617-627(in English)
[9]赵玉林,钱复业,卢军.电测量在中国地震预报中的应用.地震地质,2001,23(2):277-284
[10]Gu G X.On the strategy of earthquake pred iction.in Source mechan ism and earthquaxe pred iction,Paris,1980,99-107
[11]赵玉林,钱复业.原地电阻率变化的实验.地震学报,1983,5(2):217-225
[12]赵玉林,钱复业,许同春.岩土层受力时电阻率变化与应变的关系.地震学报,1990,12(1):87-93
[13]Zhao Y L,Q ian F Y,Stop inskiwW.In situ experiments and relationship between the electrical resistivity chan-ges and the strain.Acta Geophysica Polon ica,1990,38(3):229-343
[14]Zhao Y L,Li Z N,Q ian F Y,et al.Synthetic criterion for judging the transition geoelectric precursors from me-d ium-term stage to short-term/imm inent stage.Journal of Earthquake Pred iction Research,1996,5(4):594-601
[15]钱复业,赵玉林.地电场短临预报方法研究.地震,2005(2):33-40
[16]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后形变电阻率的脉冲.地球物理学报,1979,22(1):25-31
[17]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后自然电场的周期变化.地震学报,1982,4(3):264-272
[18]Zhao Y L,Zhao B R,Q ian F Y.E lectrical Stream ing Potential Precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China,Anneli d i Geofisica,1997,XL(2):241-250
[19]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Xu T C,et al.A model of earthquake-impend ing precursor of geoelectric ity triggered bytidal forces.Phys.Earth P lanet.Int.,1990,62:284-297
[20]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Teisseyre R.Period ic anomalies of the telluric electric field before the Tangshan earthquakeand a model of electrokinetic precursor triggered by tidal forces.Acta Geophysica Polon ica,1990,38(3):245-256
[21]钱复业,赵玉林,刘捷,等.唐山7.8级地震地电阻率临震功率谱异常.地震,1990(3):33-38
[22]钱复业,赵玉林.地电短临前兆产生机理及一种新的短临预报方法(谐振预报法).华北地震科学,1996,14(3):1-9
[23]Strack K M.Exploration w ith deep transient electromagnetics,E lsevier,Amsterdam-Landon-Newyork-Tokyo,1992,275-277.
[24]Park S K,Johnston M J S,Madden T R,et al.E lectromagnetic precursors to earthquakes in the ULF band:Areview of observations and mechan isms.Reviews of Geophysics,1993,31(2):117-132
[25]赵璧如,赵健,张洪魁,等.PS100型IP到端可控源高精度大地电测仪—CDMA技术首次在地电阻率测量中的应用.地球物理进展,2006,21(2):675-682
[26]Zhang H K,Zhao B R,Zhao Y L,et al.PS100 anti-interference electrical observation system and its applicationto earthquake pred iction study.Pysics and Chem istry of the Earth,2006,31:172-181
[27]Nur A,Tectonophysics:the study of relations between deformation and forces in the Earth,3-rd conference ofInt.Soc.Rock Mech,1974,243-317
[28]Morse P M,Ingerd K U.Theoretical Acoustics,McG raw H ill,1968
[29]Sibson R H.Cond ition for fault_valve behaviour,In:Kn ipe R J and Rutter E H(eds)DeformationMechan isms,Rheology and Tecton ics,Published by the Gelogical Soc iety,London,1990,15-28
[30]Byerlee J.Model for ep isod ic of high-pressure water in fault zones before earthquakes.Geology,1993,21:303-306
[31]Madden T R.E lectricalmeasurement as stress-strain morvitors,proceed ings of conferenceⅦ,stress and strainmeasurements related to earthquake predd iction,Geol,Surv.Open file rep.U,S,1978
[32]B race W F,W alsh J B,FrangosW F,Permeab ility of gran ite under high pressure.J.Geophys.Res,1968,73(6):2 225-2 236
[33]Morrow C,B raceW F.E lectrical resistivity changes in tuffs due to stress.J.Geophys.Res,1981,86:2 929-2934
[34]W ang C Y.E lectrical resistivity changes in during Crielional slid ing and fracture.Pageoph,1978,116(4/5):717-731
[35]F itterman D V.Theory of electrokinetic-magnetic anomalies in a faulted half-space.J.Geophys.Res,1979,84:6031-6040
[36]FenoglioM A,M J S Johston,J D Byelee.Magnetic and electric fields assoc iated w ith changes in high pore pres-sure in fault soures:application to the Lama Prieta ULF em issions.J.Geophys.Res,1995,100(B7):12 951-12 958
[37]Corw in R F,Morrison H F.Self-potentialVariations preced ing earthquakes in Central Californ ia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1977,4:171-174
[38]M izutan iH.E lectrokinetic phenomena assoc iated w ith earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett,1976,3(7):365-368
[39]Genzel G S,Zaezdnyi A M.Bases ofAcoustics(in Russian),Izdatelsro“Morskoi Transport”(the Publishing ofOcean ic Transport),1952nance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces(HRT wave)prior to theMW9.0 Sumatra earth-quake.At resonanceT=T0,where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero,the RT
②证书编号:DCcm2004-0012。此证书所列校准和测试结果系中国计量科学研究院(NIM)直流及低频(1MHz以下)电磁计量领域校准和测试能力(CMC)的一个项目,已列入互相承认协议附录C,可在BIPM网址:http://kcdb.bipm.fr/BIPM-KCDB/AppendixC/search.asp?MET=EM查询。
[2]钱复业,赵玉林.地电阻率季节干扰变化分析.地震学报,1987,9(3):289-302
[3]Lu J,Q ian F y,Zhao Y L.Sensitivity analysis of the Schlumberger mon itoring array:application to changes ofresistivity prior to the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan,China.Tectonophysics,1999,238:397-405
[4]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山7.8级强震前震中周围形变电阻率的下降异常.地球物理学报,1978,21(3):181-190
[5]钱复业,赵玉林,于谋明,等.地震前地电阻率异常变化.中国科学(B辑),1982(9):831-839
[6]钱复业,赵玉林,赴成达.唐山地震前、后震中周围浅部地电阻率与地下水位变化等因素的关系.地震学报,1981,3(2):135-142
[7]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Lu J.Georesistirity Precursors to the Tangshan earthquake of 1976.Anneli,d i Goofisica,1997,XL(2):251-260
[8]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L and Huang Y N.Calculation of the parameters of georesistivity an isotropy and case history ofearthquake precursors.Acta Seismologica Sin ica,1996,18(4):480-488(in Chinese);1996,9(4):617-627(in English)
[9]赵玉林,钱复业,卢军.电测量在中国地震预报中的应用.地震地质,2001,23(2):277-284
[10]Gu G X.On the strategy of earthquake pred iction.in Source mechan ism and earthquaxe pred iction,Paris,1980,99-107
[11]赵玉林,钱复业.原地电阻率变化的实验.地震学报,1983,5(2):217-225
[12]赵玉林,钱复业,许同春.岩土层受力时电阻率变化与应变的关系.地震学报,1990,12(1):87-93
[13]Zhao Y L,Q ian F Y,Stop inskiwW.In situ experiments and relationship between the electrical resistivity chan-ges and the strain.Acta Geophysica Polon ica,1990,38(3):229-343
[14]Zhao Y L,Li Z N,Q ian F Y,et al.Synthetic criterion for judging the transition geoelectric precursors from me-d ium-term stage to short-term/imm inent stage.Journal of Earthquake Pred iction Research,1996,5(4):594-601
[15]钱复业,赵玉林.地电场短临预报方法研究.地震,2005(2):33-40
[16]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后形变电阻率的脉冲.地球物理学报,1979,22(1):25-31
[17]赵玉林,钱复业.唐山地震前后自然电场的周期变化.地震学报,1982,4(3):264-272
[18]Zhao Y L,Zhao B R,Q ian F Y.E lectrical Stream ing Potential Precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China,Anneli d i Geofisica,1997,XL(2):241-250
[19]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Xu T C,et al.A model of earthquake-impend ing precursor of geoelectric ity triggered bytidal forces.Phys.Earth P lanet.Int.,1990,62:284-297
[20]Q ian F Y,Zhao Y L,Teisseyre R.Period ic anomalies of the telluric electric field before the Tangshan earthquakeand a model of electrokinetic precursor triggered by tidal forces.Acta Geophysica Polon ica,1990,38(3):245-256
[21]钱复业,赵玉林,刘捷,等.唐山7.8级地震地电阻率临震功率谱异常.地震,1990(3):33-38
[22]钱复业,赵玉林.地电短临前兆产生机理及一种新的短临预报方法(谐振预报法).华北地震科学,1996,14(3):1-9
[23]Strack K M.Exploration w ith deep transient electromagnetics,E lsevier,Amsterdam-Landon-Newyork-Tokyo,1992,275-277.
[24]Park S K,Johnston M J S,Madden T R,et al.E lectromagnetic precursors to earthquakes in the ULF band:Areview of observations and mechan isms.Reviews of Geophysics,1993,31(2):117-132
[25]赵璧如,赵健,张洪魁,等.PS100型IP到端可控源高精度大地电测仪—CDMA技术首次在地电阻率测量中的应用.地球物理进展,2006,21(2):675-682
[26]Zhang H K,Zhao B R,Zhao Y L,et al.PS100 anti-interference electrical observation system and its applicationto earthquake pred iction study.Pysics and Chem istry of the Earth,2006,31:172-181
[27]Nur A,Tectonophysics:the study of relations between deformation and forces in the Earth,3-rd conference ofInt.Soc.Rock Mech,1974,243-317
[28]Morse P M,Ingerd K U.Theoretical Acoustics,McG raw H ill,1968
[29]Sibson R H.Cond ition for fault_valve behaviour,In:Kn ipe R J and Rutter E H(eds)DeformationMechan isms,Rheology and Tecton ics,Published by the Gelogical Soc iety,London,1990,15-28
[30]Byerlee J.Model for ep isod ic of high-pressure water in fault zones before earthquakes.Geology,1993,21:303-306
[31]Madden T R.E lectricalmeasurement as stress-strain morvitors,proceed ings of conferenceⅦ,stress and strainmeasurements related to earthquake predd iction,Geol,Surv.Open file rep.U,S,1978
[32]B race W F,W alsh J B,FrangosW F,Permeab ility of gran ite under high pressure.J.Geophys.Res,1968,73(6):2 225-2 236
[33]Morrow C,B raceW F.E lectrical resistivity changes in tuffs due to stress.J.Geophys.Res,1981,86:2 929-2934
[34]W ang C Y.E lectrical resistivity changes in during Crielional slid ing and fracture.Pageoph,1978,116(4/5):717-731
[35]F itterman D V.Theory of electrokinetic-magnetic anomalies in a faulted half-space.J.Geophys.Res,1979,84:6031-6040
[36]FenoglioM A,M J S Johston,J D Byelee.Magnetic and electric fields assoc iated w ith changes in high pore pres-sure in fault soures:application to the Lama Prieta ULF em issions.J.Geophys.Res,1995,100(B7):12 951-12 958
[37]Corw in R F,Morrison H F.Self-potentialVariations preced ing earthquakes in Central Californ ia.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1977,4:171-174
[38]M izutan iH.E lectrokinetic phenomena assoc iated w ith earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett,1976,3(7):365-368
[39]Genzel G S,Zaezdnyi A M.Bases ofAcoustics(in Russian),Izdatelsro“Morskoi Transport”(the Publishing ofOcean ic Transport),1952nance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces(HRT wave)prior to theMW9.0 Sumatra earth-quake.At resonanceT=T0,where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero,the RT
②证书编号:DCcm2004-0012。此证书所列校准和测试结果系中国计量科学研究院(NIM)直流及低频(1MHz以下)电磁计量领域校准和测试能力(CMC)的一个项目,已列入互相承认协议附录C,可在BIPM网址:http://kcdb.bipm.fr/BIPM-KCDB/AppendixC/search.asp?MET=EM查询。
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