流行病传播自组织临界性模型适用性探讨
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摘要
自组织临界状态(SOC)理论已被用于解释地震、森林火灾、恐龙灭绝等灾难性事件,将SOC引入流行病传播模型的研究也是很有前景的方向,但必须明确SOC在该领域的适用条件。首先对SOC系统的基本性质与流行病传播特征进行了对比分析,提出对各类流行病的传播过程而言,人类社会已经演化到了小事件引起的连锁反应可能导致一场大灾难的临界状态,具有近距离接触的传染方式是应用SOC模型的控制条件;然后通过以非典型性肺炎(SARS)病毒(2002~2004年)为范例的研究,发现流行病的传播仅在未经人为强力干预阶段才具有SOC效应;最后在SOC的概念框架下对流行病防治对策进行了讨论。
Self-organized criticality(SOC) has been used to explain the dynamics of many catastrophes such as earthquake,forest fire and demise of the dinosaurs.The application of SOC in the modelling of epidemic spreading is very promising,while the applicable condition of SOC in this field is not clear yet.In this paper,first,based on comparing the basic features of SOC system and epidemic spreading,it is suggested that human society has evolved to a critical state that a minor event may start a chain reaction and lead to a catastrophe,and close-distance infection is the control parameter of applying SOC.Then,based on the data of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) spreading from 2002 to 2004,it is found that epidemic spreading is of SOC features under little human interference,while SOC features are not found under much human interference.Finally,some measures for epidemics prevention are suggested from the principle of SOC.
Self-organized criticality(SOC) has been used to explain the dynamics of many catastrophes such as earthquake,forest fire and demise of the dinosaurs.The application of SOC in the modelling of epidemic spreading is very promising,while the applicable condition of SOC in this field is not clear yet.In this paper,first,based on comparing the basic features of SOC system and epidemic spreading,it is suggested that human society has evolved to a critical state that a minor event may start a chain reaction and lead to a catastrophe,and close-distance infection is the control parameter of applying SOC.Then,based on the data of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) spreading from 2002 to 2004,it is found that epidemic spreading is of SOC features under little human interference,while SOC features are not found under much human interference.Finally,some measures for epidemics prevention are suggested from the principle of SOC.
引文
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[4]Bak P,Chen K.Self-organized criticality[J].Scientific Ameri-can,1991,264(1):26-33.
[5]Yao Lingkan,Huang Yuan,Lu Yang.Self-organized criticalityand its application in the slope disasters under gravity[J].Sciencein China:Ser.E Technological Sciences,2003,(46):20-30.
[6]姚令侃,李仕雄,蒋良潍.自组织临界性及其在散粒体研究中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2003,35(1):9-14.
[7]曾文霞,戴应基.2004年SARS流行特征[J].现代预防医学,2005,32(10):1270-1272.
[2]张培培,苏培培,许田.失控自复制导致的社会结构破坏与自组织临界现象[J].自然科学进展,2004,14(1):107-110.
[3]Dickman R.Non-equilibrium phase transition in epidemics andsandpiles[J].Physica A,2002,(306):90-97.
[4]Bak P,Chen K.Self-organized criticality[J].Scientific Ameri-can,1991,264(1):26-33.
[5]Yao Lingkan,Huang Yuan,Lu Yang.Self-organized criticalityand its application in the slope disasters under gravity[J].Sciencein China:Ser.E Technological Sciences,2003,(46):20-30.
[6]姚令侃,李仕雄,蒋良潍.自组织临界性及其在散粒体研究中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2003,35(1):9-14.
[7]曾文霞,戴应基.2004年SARS流行特征[J].现代预防医学,2005,32(10):1270-1272.
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