2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震序列参数的早期特征
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摘要
利用"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型,考虑不同的截止震级和序列持续时间的影响,对2014年鲁甸6.5级地震后9 d内的序列参数特征进行了研究。结果表明,当选取截止震级MC=ML2.0时,可获得相对稳定可靠的p值和α值等序列参数,其中p=0.89~1.10,显示了较慢的衰减特征,α值在震后5.0 d出现大幅下降,表明激发次级余震的能力出现显著变化。
Based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence( ETAS) model, considering the influence of different cutoff magnitude and duration time,we investigated the parameter characteristics in the early stage of Yunnan Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake sequence in 2014. It is observed that the p and α values kept stable and reliable when the cutoff magnitude MC= ML2. 0 was selected. The result of p = 0. 89 ~ 1. 10 indicated that it had a slowdecay rate of aftershocks. The α-value showed a sharp drop on the 5thday after the main shock,which indicated the ability of provoking aftershocks change greatly.
Based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence( ETAS) model, considering the influence of different cutoff magnitude and duration time,we investigated the parameter characteristics in the early stage of Yunnan Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake sequence in 2014. It is observed that the p and α values kept stable and reliable when the cutoff magnitude MC= ML2. 0 was selected. The result of p = 0. 89 ~ 1. 10 indicated that it had a slowdecay rate of aftershocks. The α-value showed a sharp drop on the 5thday after the main shock,which indicated the ability of provoking aftershocks change greatly.
引文
蒋长胜,韩立波,郭路杰.2014.新疆于田地区2008年以来3个地震序列的参数早期特征[J].地震学报,36(2):165-174.
蒋长胜,吴忠良,韩立波,等.2013a.地震序列早期参数估计和余震概率预测中截止震级MC的影响:以2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震为例[J].地球物理学报,56(12):4048-4057.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2011.玉树MS7.1地震前的中长期加速矩释放(AMR)[J].地球物理学报,54(6):1501-1510.
蒋长胜,庄建仓,龙锋,等.2013b.2013年芦山MS7.0地震序列参数的早期特征:传染型余震序列模型计算结果[J].地震学报,35(5):661-669.
蒋海昆,郑建常,吴琼,等.2007.传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义[J].地球物理学报,50(6):1778-1786.
Daley D.J.,Vere-Jones D..2003.An Introduction to the Theory of PointProcesses-Volume 1:Elementary Theory and Methods[M].NewYork:Springer.
Guo Z.,Ogata Y..1997.Statistical relations between the Parameters ofAftershocks in Time,Space and Magnitude[J].J.Geophys.Res.,102(B2):2857-2873.
Huang Q..2006.Search for Reliable Precursors:A Case Study of theSeismic Quiescence of the 2000 Western Tottori Prefecture Earthquake[J].J.Geophys Res.,111(B4):B04301,doi:10.1029/2005JB003982.
Iwata T..2008.Low Detection Capability of Global Earthquakes after theOccurrence of Large Earthquakes:Investigation of the Harvard CMTcatalogue[J].Geophys J.Int.,174(3):849-856.
Kagan Y.Y.,Bird P.,Jackson D.D..2010.Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,167(6/7):721-741.
Ogata Y..1988.Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes[J].J.Amer..Statist Assoc.,83(401):9-27.
Ogata Y..1989.Statistical Model for Standard Seismicity and Detection ofAnomalies by Residual Analysis[J].Tectonophysics,169(1/3):159-174.
Ogata Y..1992.Detection of Precursory Relative Quiescence before GreatEarthquakes through a Statistical Model[J].J.Geophys Res.,97(B13):19845-19871.
Omori F..1894.On the After-shocks of Earthquakes[J].J.CollSci.Imp.Univ.Tokyo,7:11-200.
Schoenberg F.P.,Chu A.,Veen A..2010.On the Relationship betweenLower Magnitude Thresholds and Bias in ETAS Parameter Estimates[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115:B04309,doi:10.1029/2009JB006387.
Sornette D.,Werner M.J..2005.Apparent Clustering and ApparentBackground Earthquakes Biased by Undetected Seismicity[J].J.Geophys.Res.,110(B9):B09303,doi:10.1029/2005JB003621.
Utsu T..1961.A Statistical Study of on the Occurrence of Aftershocks[J].Geophys.Mag.,30:521-605.
Wang Q.,Jackson D.D.,Zhuang J.C..2010.Missing Links in Earthquake Clustering Models[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(21):L21307,doi:10.1029/2010GL044858.
Zhuang J.,Harte D.,Werner M.J.,et al..2012.Basic Models of Seismicity:Temporal Models[M/OL].(2012-08-04)[2014-08-29].http://www.corssa.org/silva_ethz/ETH/erdw/corssa/corssa/articles/themev/zhuang_et_al_a/zhuang_et_al_a.pdf.
1全国统一地震编目(日报)查询系统,http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/catalog_direct_link.htm#,查阅时间2014年8月16日.
蒋长胜,吴忠良,韩立波,等.2013a.地震序列早期参数估计和余震概率预测中截止震级MC的影响:以2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震为例[J].地球物理学报,56(12):4048-4057.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2011.玉树MS7.1地震前的中长期加速矩释放(AMR)[J].地球物理学报,54(6):1501-1510.
蒋长胜,庄建仓,龙锋,等.2013b.2013年芦山MS7.0地震序列参数的早期特征:传染型余震序列模型计算结果[J].地震学报,35(5):661-669.
蒋海昆,郑建常,吴琼,等.2007.传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义[J].地球物理学报,50(6):1778-1786.
Daley D.J.,Vere-Jones D..2003.An Introduction to the Theory of PointProcesses-Volume 1:Elementary Theory and Methods[M].NewYork:Springer.
Guo Z.,Ogata Y..1997.Statistical relations between the Parameters ofAftershocks in Time,Space and Magnitude[J].J.Geophys.Res.,102(B2):2857-2873.
Huang Q..2006.Search for Reliable Precursors:A Case Study of theSeismic Quiescence of the 2000 Western Tottori Prefecture Earthquake[J].J.Geophys Res.,111(B4):B04301,doi:10.1029/2005JB003982.
Iwata T..2008.Low Detection Capability of Global Earthquakes after theOccurrence of Large Earthquakes:Investigation of the Harvard CMTcatalogue[J].Geophys J.Int.,174(3):849-856.
Kagan Y.Y.,Bird P.,Jackson D.D..2010.Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,167(6/7):721-741.
Ogata Y..1988.Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes[J].J.Amer..Statist Assoc.,83(401):9-27.
Ogata Y..1989.Statistical Model for Standard Seismicity and Detection ofAnomalies by Residual Analysis[J].Tectonophysics,169(1/3):159-174.
Ogata Y..1992.Detection of Precursory Relative Quiescence before GreatEarthquakes through a Statistical Model[J].J.Geophys Res.,97(B13):19845-19871.
Omori F..1894.On the After-shocks of Earthquakes[J].J.CollSci.Imp.Univ.Tokyo,7:11-200.
Schoenberg F.P.,Chu A.,Veen A..2010.On the Relationship betweenLower Magnitude Thresholds and Bias in ETAS Parameter Estimates[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115:B04309,doi:10.1029/2009JB006387.
Sornette D.,Werner M.J..2005.Apparent Clustering and ApparentBackground Earthquakes Biased by Undetected Seismicity[J].J.Geophys.Res.,110(B9):B09303,doi:10.1029/2005JB003621.
Utsu T..1961.A Statistical Study of on the Occurrence of Aftershocks[J].Geophys.Mag.,30:521-605.
Wang Q.,Jackson D.D.,Zhuang J.C..2010.Missing Links in Earthquake Clustering Models[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(21):L21307,doi:10.1029/2010GL044858.
Zhuang J.,Harte D.,Werner M.J.,et al..2012.Basic Models of Seismicity:Temporal Models[M/OL].(2012-08-04)[2014-08-29].http://www.corssa.org/silva_ethz/ETH/erdw/corssa/corssa/articles/themev/zhuang_et_al_a/zhuang_et_al_a.pdf.
1全国统一地震编目(日报)查询系统,http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/catalog_direct_link.htm#,查阅时间2014年8月16日.
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