日本东北大地震——大自然给人类上的又一课
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摘要
作者介绍了2011年3月11日日本东北地区太平洋沿岸近海的M9.0特大地震的震后研究情况,日本列岛M8.0以上大地震发生的地球动力学背景、地理环境,大地震在东北太平洋沿岸地区、关东地区、东海道地区的活动历史以及对下一次东海地震发生时间的最新研究进展。最后总结了地震中长期预测的现状及相关基础研究应努力的方向,提出了在工程应用研究中应该避免的错误工作思路。
The authors summarized researches on the Tohoku off-pacific-coast M9 earthquake and its effect on ground deformation and tsunami.Review was also given on the seismotectonic setting under the framework of plate tectonics,geographic environment,historical activities of M8-class earthquakes in Tohoku off-pacific-coast,Kanto area and Tokai area,with the up-to-date progress in prediction on future earthquake activity of M8 class in Tokai area.The authors also reviewed the status and problems to be solved in mid-to-long-term prediction on earthquake occurrence and suggested important research topics in earthquake science.Lastly,suggestions are also given for avoiding mistakes in engineering design and the related risk assessment.
The authors summarized researches on the Tohoku off-pacific-coast M9 earthquake and its effect on ground deformation and tsunami.Review was also given on the seismotectonic setting under the framework of plate tectonics,geographic environment,historical activities of M8-class earthquakes in Tohoku off-pacific-coast,Kanto area and Tokai area,with the up-to-date progress in prediction on future earthquake activity of M8 class in Tokai area.The authors also reviewed the status and problems to be solved in mid-to-long-term prediction on earthquake occurrence and suggested important research topics in earthquake science.Lastly,suggestions are also given for avoiding mistakes in engineering design and the related risk assessment.
引文
[1]八木勇治,西村直树.破裂过程[EB/OL].http://www.geol.tsukuba.ac.jp/~yagi-y/EQ/Tohoku/index-o2.ht ml,2011.
[2]HAYES G.Finite fault model[EB/OL].http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0001xgp/finite_fault.php,2011.
[3]WEI S,SLADEN A,The ARIA group.Updated Result,3/11/2011(Mw9.0),Tohoku-oki,Japan[EB/OL].http://www.tec-tonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2011_taiheiyo-oki/,2011.
[4]陈运泰研究组.破裂过程[EB/OL].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/subjects/20110311134621/20110311134621_polie.jsp?id=109157,2011.
[5]日本国土地理院,The2011off the Pacific coast of Tohokuearthquake:crustal defor mation and fault model(preli mina-ry)[EB/OL].http://www.gsi.go.jp/cais/topic110313-index-e.ht ml,2011.
[6]HASHI MOTO C,NODA A,SAGIYA T,et al.Interplateseis mogenic zones along the Kuril-Japan trench inferred fromGPS datainversion[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:141-144.
[7]CHLIEH M.IRD-Geoazur[EB/OL].http://supersites.earth-observations.org/sendai.php,2011.
[8]古村孝志,前田拓人,津波シミュレ-ション[EB/OL].http://outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/eqvolc/201103_tohoku/,2011.
[9]ATWATER BF,CISTERNAS VEGA M,BOURGEOISJ A,et al.Surviving a Tsunami—Lessons fromChile,Hawaii,and Japan[R].U.S.Geological Survey,Circular1187,Version1.1,2005.
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[11]HOLTHUIJSEN L H.Waves in oceanic and coastal waters[M].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[12]Maine Geological Survey.Tsunamis in the Atlantic Ocean[EB/OL].http://www.maine.gov/doc/nri mc/mgs/ex-plore/hazards/tsunami/jan05.ht ml,2005.
[13]IRIS.Magnitude9.0great earthquake near east coast of Hon-shu,Japan[EB/OL].http://www.iris.edu/hq/files/pro-grams/education_and_outreach/ret m/t m_110311_japan/20110311Japan.pdf,2011.
[14]SENO T,STEINS,GRIPP A E.A model for the motion ofthe Philippine Sea Plate consistent with NUVEL-1and geolog-ical data[J].J Geophys Res,1993,98:17941-17948.
[15]宇津德治.地震学(第2版)[M].共立全书216,共立出版株式会社,1984.
[16]山村武彦.東海道、南海道の地震[EB/OL].防災システム研究所,http://bo-sai.co.jp/tounankai1.ht m,2011.
[17]瀬野徹三.南海トラフ巨大地震-その破壊の様一とシリ一ズについての新たな考え[EB/OL].http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/seno/Papers/nankai.eq.pdf,2010.
[18]RUINA A L.Slip instability and state variable friction laws[J].J Geophys Res,1983,88:10359-10370.
[19]BLANPIED ML,LOCKNER D A,BYERLEEJ D.Friction-al slip of granite at hydrother mal conditions[J].J GeophysRes,1995,100:13045-13064.
[20]HE C,WANG Z,YAO W.Frictional sliding of gabbro gougeunder hydrother mal conditions[J].Tectonophysics,2007,445:353-362.
[21]HIROSE T,SHI MAMOTO T.Slip-weakening distance offaults during frictional melting as inferred fromexperi mentaland natural pseudotachylytes[J].Bulletin of the Seis mologicalSociety of America,2005,95:1666-1673.
[22]LAPUSTA N,RICEJ R.Nucleation and early seis mic propa-gation of s mall and large events in a crustal earthquake model[J].J Geophys Res,2003,108:2205.
[23]闻学泽.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用[J].地震学报,2001,23:380-390.
[2]HAYES G.Finite fault model[EB/OL].http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0001xgp/finite_fault.php,2011.
[3]WEI S,SLADEN A,The ARIA group.Updated Result,3/11/2011(Mw9.0),Tohoku-oki,Japan[EB/OL].http://www.tec-tonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2011_taiheiyo-oki/,2011.
[4]陈运泰研究组.破裂过程[EB/OL].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/subjects/20110311134621/20110311134621_polie.jsp?id=109157,2011.
[5]日本国土地理院,The2011off the Pacific coast of Tohokuearthquake:crustal defor mation and fault model(preli mina-ry)[EB/OL].http://www.gsi.go.jp/cais/topic110313-index-e.ht ml,2011.
[6]HASHI MOTO C,NODA A,SAGIYA T,et al.Interplateseis mogenic zones along the Kuril-Japan trench inferred fromGPS datainversion[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:141-144.
[7]CHLIEH M.IRD-Geoazur[EB/OL].http://supersites.earth-observations.org/sendai.php,2011.
[8]古村孝志,前田拓人,津波シミュレ-ション[EB/OL].http://outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/eqvolc/201103_tohoku/,2011.
[9]ATWATER BF,CISTERNAS VEGA M,BOURGEOISJ A,et al.Surviving a Tsunami—Lessons fromChile,Hawaii,and Japan[R].U.S.Geological Survey,Circular1187,Version1.1,2005.
[10]MILES J W.On the generation of surface waves by shearflows[J].Journal of Fluid Mechanics,1957,3:185-204.
[11]HOLTHUIJSEN L H.Waves in oceanic and coastal waters[M].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[12]Maine Geological Survey.Tsunamis in the Atlantic Ocean[EB/OL].http://www.maine.gov/doc/nri mc/mgs/ex-plore/hazards/tsunami/jan05.ht ml,2005.
[13]IRIS.Magnitude9.0great earthquake near east coast of Hon-shu,Japan[EB/OL].http://www.iris.edu/hq/files/pro-grams/education_and_outreach/ret m/t m_110311_japan/20110311Japan.pdf,2011.
[14]SENO T,STEINS,GRIPP A E.A model for the motion ofthe Philippine Sea Plate consistent with NUVEL-1and geolog-ical data[J].J Geophys Res,1993,98:17941-17948.
[15]宇津德治.地震学(第2版)[M].共立全书216,共立出版株式会社,1984.
[16]山村武彦.東海道、南海道の地震[EB/OL].防災システム研究所,http://bo-sai.co.jp/tounankai1.ht m,2011.
[17]瀬野徹三.南海トラフ巨大地震-その破壊の様一とシリ一ズについての新たな考え[EB/OL].http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/seno/Papers/nankai.eq.pdf,2010.
[18]RUINA A L.Slip instability and state variable friction laws[J].J Geophys Res,1983,88:10359-10370.
[19]BLANPIED ML,LOCKNER D A,BYERLEEJ D.Friction-al slip of granite at hydrother mal conditions[J].J GeophysRes,1995,100:13045-13064.
[20]HE C,WANG Z,YAO W.Frictional sliding of gabbro gougeunder hydrother mal conditions[J].Tectonophysics,2007,445:353-362.
[21]HIROSE T,SHI MAMOTO T.Slip-weakening distance offaults during frictional melting as inferred fromexperi mentaland natural pseudotachylytes[J].Bulletin of the Seis mologicalSociety of America,2005,95:1666-1673.
[22]LAPUSTA N,RICEJ R.Nucleation and early seis mic propa-gation of s mall and large events in a crustal earthquake model[J].J Geophys Res,2003,108:2205.
[23]闻学泽.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用[J].地震学报,2001,23:380-390.
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