食品行业突发事件风险感知的传染病模型研究
|
摘要
日本2011年的"地震—引发海啸—引起核泄漏—导致核辐射"一系列突发公共危机事件对我国经济和消费者的生活产生了较大的影响,特别是对我国的食品行业,衍生了诸如菠菜滞销、抢购食盐的食品供给安全突发事件。本文运用传染病模型,研究了食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的特征和过程,建立了食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的传染病模型,并以日本大地震衍生的我国抢购食盐的食品供给安全事件风险感知为例进行模型仿真模拟,提出了规避食品行业突发事件风险感知传递的措施建议。
In 2011,a series of unexpected public crisis,namely the "earthquake-tsunami-nuclear leak-nuclear radiation" which happened in Japan,brought out a great impact on the economy and the consumers' life in China,especially in the food industry,which generates a series of emergencies in food supply safety,such as the poor market of spinach and the panic buying of table salt,etc.This paper applies the epidemic model to analyze the features and process of the risk perception and transfer in the emergency events of the food industry,and establishes an epidemic model for such risk perception and transfer,Then,the paper also conducts the model simulation by citing the panic buying of the table salt generated by the great earthquake in Japan as an example of the risk perception of the food supply safety emergency,and puts forward suggestions to avoid the emergency risk perception transferring in food industry.
In 2011,a series of unexpected public crisis,namely the "earthquake-tsunami-nuclear leak-nuclear radiation" which happened in Japan,brought out a great impact on the economy and the consumers' life in China,especially in the food industry,which generates a series of emergencies in food supply safety,such as the poor market of spinach and the panic buying of table salt,etc.This paper applies the epidemic model to analyze the features and process of the risk perception and transfer in the emergency events of the food industry,and establishes an epidemic model for such risk perception and transfer,Then,the paper also conducts the model simulation by citing the panic buying of the table salt generated by the great earthquake in Japan as an example of the risk perception of the food supply safety emergency,and puts forward suggestions to avoid the emergency risk perception transferring in food industry.
引文
[1]Li Zhemin(李哲敏).Research on the connotation of food security and the evaluation index system(食品安全内涵及评价指标体系研究)[J].Journal of Beijing Vocational College of Agriculture(北京农业职业学院学报).2004,18(1):18-22.
[2]W O Kermack.A G McKendriek.Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics[J],Proceedings of the Royal Society.A115(1927):700-721.
[3]W O Kermack.A G McKendrick.Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society.A138(1932):55-83.
[4]Han Xiaona et.(韩晓娜等).Application of infectious disease model in the control of SARS[J](传染病模型在SARS防制中的应用).Chinese Journal of Epidemiology(中国流行病学杂志).2005,26(3):169-171.
[5]Liu Yuan(刘源).Application of"Infectious disease model"in tacit knowledge communication[J]("传染病模型"在隐性知识传播中的应用).Science&Technology Progress and Plocy(科技进步与对策).2008,25(7):168-170.
[6]Yang Lirong(杨丽荣).Application of the infectious disease model in the group events[J](传染病模型在群体性事件研究中的应用).Science&Technology Information(Academic Edition)(科技信息(学术版)).2008(36):87.
[7]Allen F.Gale D.Financial contagion[J].Journal of Political Economy.2000,108:1-33.
[8]Allen F.Carletti E.Credit risk transfer and contagion[J].Journal of Monetary Economics.2006,53(1):89-111.
[9]Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Wang Yuanming(王元明).Research on the risk transfer mechanism of the project schedule based on PERT[J](基于PERT的项目工期风险传递机制).Industrial Engineering(工业工程).2008,11(4):14-18.
[10]Wang Yuanming(王元明).Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Xu Dahai(许大海).Research on the one-way transmission mechanism and countermeasures of the Project supply chain risk[J](项目供应链的风险单向传递机理及其对策).Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)).2009,8(4):47-52.
[11]Wang Yuanming(王元明).Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Research on the transfer model and control of the project quality risk[J](建筑项目质量风险传递模型与控制研究).Journal of Business Economics(商业经济与管理).2008(6):15-20.
[12]Hertzel MG Li Z.Officer MS,Rodgers KJ Inter-firm linkages and the wealth effects of fmancial distress along the supply chain[J].Journal of Financial Economics.2008,87:374-387.
[13]Fujiwara Y.Chain of finns’bankruptcy:a macroscopic study of link effect in a production network[J].Advances in Complex System.2008,11(5):703-717.
[14]Jiang Qiyuan(姜启源).Xie Jinxing(谢金星).Ye Jun(叶俊).Mathematical Model[M](数学模型).Beijing(北京):Higher Education Press(高等教育出版社).2011.
[2]W O Kermack.A G McKendriek.Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics[J],Proceedings of the Royal Society.A115(1927):700-721.
[3]W O Kermack.A G McKendrick.Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society.A138(1932):55-83.
[4]Han Xiaona et.(韩晓娜等).Application of infectious disease model in the control of SARS[J](传染病模型在SARS防制中的应用).Chinese Journal of Epidemiology(中国流行病学杂志).2005,26(3):169-171.
[5]Liu Yuan(刘源).Application of"Infectious disease model"in tacit knowledge communication[J]("传染病模型"在隐性知识传播中的应用).Science&Technology Progress and Plocy(科技进步与对策).2008,25(7):168-170.
[6]Yang Lirong(杨丽荣).Application of the infectious disease model in the group events[J](传染病模型在群体性事件研究中的应用).Science&Technology Information(Academic Edition)(科技信息(学术版)).2008(36):87.
[7]Allen F.Gale D.Financial contagion[J].Journal of Political Economy.2000,108:1-33.
[8]Allen F.Carletti E.Credit risk transfer and contagion[J].Journal of Monetary Economics.2006,53(1):89-111.
[9]Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Wang Yuanming(王元明).Research on the risk transfer mechanism of the project schedule based on PERT[J](基于PERT的项目工期风险传递机制).Industrial Engineering(工业工程).2008,11(4):14-18.
[10]Wang Yuanming(王元明).Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Xu Dahai(许大海).Research on the one-way transmission mechanism and countermeasures of the Project supply chain risk[J](项目供应链的风险单向传递机理及其对策).Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)).2009,8(4):47-52.
[11]Wang Yuanming(王元明).Zhao Daozhi(赵道致).Research on the transfer model and control of the project quality risk[J](建筑项目质量风险传递模型与控制研究).Journal of Business Economics(商业经济与管理).2008(6):15-20.
[12]Hertzel MG Li Z.Officer MS,Rodgers KJ Inter-firm linkages and the wealth effects of fmancial distress along the supply chain[J].Journal of Financial Economics.2008,87:374-387.
[13]Fujiwara Y.Chain of finns’bankruptcy:a macroscopic study of link effect in a production network[J].Advances in Complex System.2008,11(5):703-717.
[14]Jiang Qiyuan(姜启源).Xie Jinxing(谢金星).Ye Jun(叶俊).Mathematical Model[M](数学模型).Beijing(北京):Higher Education Press(高等教育出版社).2011.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心