地震能够应力预测
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摘要
1997年Geller等人曾发表"地震不能预报",因为在自组织临界系统中尺度不变性是普遍存在的,而地球正处于自组织临界状态中,在这种状态下小地震具有某种概率,如瀑布般触发大的地震事件。但是在物理上,只有对应其地震震级的应力能量得到有效释放,才能有大地震的发生。利用对这种应力的依赖性可以进行地震预测,方法就是利用剪切波分裂来监控即将发生地震的周围岩体的应力积累。这项技术可以说是成功的,但是由于假定的不可预报性,所以需要清晰的论证才能被普遍接受。雪崩也是自组织临界现象。近期通过二维球形素珠堆进行的雪崩实验观测表明,具有自组织临界性的自然物理现象是能够预报的,如雪崩、地震等。预报地震和雪崩的关键是监控母体介质,而不是即将发震的震源区。
引文
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[7]Ramos O,Altshuler E,Malφy K J.Avalanche prediction in self-organized pile of beads.Phys.Rev.Lett.,2009,102:078701--078704
[8]Bak P.How Nature Works.New York:Springer-Verlag Inc.1996:212
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[13]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V.Modelling the compliance of crustal rock:II—response to temporal changes before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1997,129:495--506
[14]Gao Y,Crampin S.Observations of stress relaxation before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:578--582,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[15]Davies P.The New Physics:a synthesis,in The New Physics,1989:1--6,ed.Davies P,Cambridge:Cambridge Univ.Press
[16]Crampin S,Peacock S,Gao Y,et al.The scatter of time-delays in shear-wave splitting above small earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156:39--44
[17]Bak P,Tang C,Wiesenfeld K.Self-organized criticality:an explanation for1/fnoise.Phys.Rev.Lett.,1987.59:382--384
[2]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted.Science,1997,275:1616--1623
[3]Crampin S,Volti T,Stef nsson R.Asuccessfully stress-forecast earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,1999,138:F1--F5,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[4]Crampin S,Gao Y,Peacock S.Stress-forecasting(not predicting)earthquakes:a paradigmshift-Geolo-gy,2008,36:427--430,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[5]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof shear-wave splittinginthe compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth.Wave Motion,2005,41:59--77,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[6]Crampin S,Peacock S.Areviewof the current understanding of shear-wave splitting and common falla-cies ininterpretation.Wave Motion,2008,45:675--722
[7]Ramos O,Altshuler E,Malφy K J.Avalanche prediction in self-organized pile of beads.Phys.Rev.Lett.,2009,102:078701--078704
[8]Bak P.How Nature Works.New York:Springer-Verlag Inc.1996:212
[9]Mouka F,Nezbeda I.Detection and characterization of structural change in the hard-disk fluid under freezing and melting conditions.Phys.Rev.Lett.,2005,94:040601--040603
[10]Crampin S.The fracture criticality of crustal rocks.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,118:428--438
[11]Crampin S.Calculable fluid-rockinteractions.J.Geol.Soc.,1999,156:501--514
[12]Crampin S.The New Geophysics:a newunderstanding of fluid-rock deformation,in Eurock2006:Mul-tiphysics Coupling and Long Term Behaviour in Rock Mechanics,2006:539--544,eds Van Cotthem A,Charlier R,Thimus J F,et al.London,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[13]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V.Modelling the compliance of crustal rock:II—response to temporal changes before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1997,129:495--506
[14]Gao Y,Crampin S.Observations of stress relaxation before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:578--582,available at:www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion
[15]Davies P.The New Physics:a synthesis,in The New Physics,1989:1--6,ed.Davies P,Cambridge:Cambridge Univ.Press
[16]Crampin S,Peacock S,Gao Y,et al.The scatter of time-delays in shear-wave splitting above small earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156:39--44
[17]Bak P,Tang C,Wiesenfeld K.Self-organized criticality:an explanation for1/fnoise.Phys.Rev.Lett.,1987.59:382--384
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