天山地区中强地震预报判据及方案
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摘要
对新疆6级地震成组活动与7级地震的相关性进行了总结。结合天山地区不同构造环境,开展中强地震孕育阶段不同区域地震活动图像演化和强震短期前兆异常综合特征研究,在总结天山地区中短期异常特征及预报判据基础上,提出中短期阶段预报方案。预报方案:①时间预测。南天山在地震平静背景下,局部地区出现较明显的地震增强现象;北天山3~4级地震出现增强—平静—显著地震过程;大范围前兆观测出现同步异常变化等。②地点预测。地震活动增强区、空区周围、条带端部或空段、显著事件周围,定点前兆短期异常相对集中区域等,可做为地震发生的预测地点。③强度预测。预测区周围历史地震强度、新疆5级地震平静持续时间、震前地震活动强度等可做为强度预测的参考。
We sum up the relativity between the group activities of earthquakes with MS6 and earthquakes with MS7 in Xinjiang.Unifying the different structure environment of Tianshan area,we studied the comprehensive characteristic of the seismic activity image evolution in different region and the precursory abnormities of short-term about strong earthquakes in gestation stage of mid-strong earthquakes.On basic of summing up the characteristic of short and medium term abnormities in Tianshan area and the prediction criterion,we put up the prediction project of short and medium term stage.The prediction project is: ① Time Prediction.In the earthquake tranquility background,partial area of South Tianshan appeared obvious earthquake strengthen;While earthquakes with MS3～4 of North Tianshan appeared the picture of strengthentranquility-remarkable earthquake;And precursory observation of wide range appeared the synchronizing abnormal change and so on.② Place Prediction.In strengthen area,empty and its surrounding,the end of banding,or empty stage and around remarkable event of seismic activity,the fixed precursory abnormities of short-term is relatively centralized region and so on.③ Magnitude Prediction.In prediction area and its surrounding,they included history earthquake magnitude,the tranquility duration of earthquakes with MS5 in Xinjiang and the intensity of seismic activity before earthquakes and so on.
We sum up the relativity between the group activities of earthquakes with MS6 and earthquakes with MS7 in Xinjiang.Unifying the different structure environment of Tianshan area,we studied the comprehensive characteristic of the seismic activity image evolution in different region and the precursory abnormities of short-term about strong earthquakes in gestation stage of mid-strong earthquakes.On basic of summing up the characteristic of short and medium term abnormities in Tianshan area and the prediction criterion,we put up the prediction project of short and medium term stage.The prediction project is: ① Time Prediction.In the earthquake tranquility background,partial area of South Tianshan appeared obvious earthquake strengthen;While earthquakes with MS3～4 of North Tianshan appeared the picture of strengthentranquility-remarkable earthquake;And precursory observation of wide range appeared the synchronizing abnormal change and so on.② Place Prediction.In strengthen area,empty and its surrounding,the end of banding,or empty stage and around remarkable event of seismic activity,the fixed precursory abnormities of short-term is relatively centralized region and so on.③ Magnitude Prediction.In prediction area and its surrounding,they included history earthquake magnitude,the tranquility duration of earthquakes with MS5 in Xinjiang and the intensity of seismic activity before earthquakes and so on.
引文
[1]中国地震局监测预报司.强地震短期预测综合预报方法与方案[M].北京:地震出版社,2006.
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[6]杨又陵,温和平,张翼.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前新疆定点形变异常分析[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):317-324.
[2]高国英,王筱荣,温和平,等.新疆及周边地区强震成组活动及其预测研究[J].地震,2007,27(4):18-26.
[3]张国民,李丽.强震成组孕育、成组发生过程中相互影响的研究[J].地震,1997,17(3):221-231.
[4]张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙.构造块体的成组孕育模型和前兆场某些特征的分析[J].地震学报,17(1):1-10.
[5]张永仙,余素荣,张晓东,等.中国大陆西部前兆异常涨落与强震短期预测研究[J].地震,2004,24(1):7-17.
[6]杨又陵,温和平,张翼.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前新疆定点形变异常分析[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):317-324.
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