基于多变量统计分析的大型滑坡敏感性评价:以汶川地震影响的陇南地区为例
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摘要
以"5.12"汶川地震影响较严重的甘肃东部的陇南震区为研究区,分析地震前后影响历史大型深层滑坡的空间要素,以专家经验分析确定的成因要素作为滑坡敏感性评价的初选方案。为了避免专家经验的客观性和要素相互重叠对滑坡敏感性评价的影响,执行主成分(PCA)多变量分析法以确定新的评价方案。2个方案分别通过逻辑回归模型(LR)执行,并绘制滑坡危险等级地图。采用成功率曲线和累积面积曲线对2种评价结果的有效性和性能进行检验和对比。检验结果表明:采用新方案所得的滑坡敏感性地图具有更好的性能和更高的精度,因此,新方案下由LR绘制的滑坡危险等级地图可作为指导研究区震后重建、基础设施建设和土地规划的依据。
Taking Longnan area of the east part of Gansu province,which was seriously affected by the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake,as study area,a comprehensive analysis was conducted based on field investigation of the front and back of the Wenchuan earthquake.The caused factors were determined as the first scenario by expert experiences.To avoid the expert subjectivity and reduce the interaction between the caused factors,principal component analysis was conducted to determine a new scenario.The two scenarios were assessed by logical regression analysis.The landslide susceptibility maps produced by logical regression analysis were validated by the success rate curve and the cumulative area curve.The results show that the landslide susceptibility map in the new scenario is better than that of the original one.Therefore,the landslide susceptibility map with the new scenario can be recommended as the consultation of the post-quake reconstruction,infrastructure construction and land planning.
Taking Longnan area of the east part of Gansu province,which was seriously affected by the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake,as study area,a comprehensive analysis was conducted based on field investigation of the front and back of the Wenchuan earthquake.The caused factors were determined as the first scenario by expert experiences.To avoid the expert subjectivity and reduce the interaction between the caused factors,principal component analysis was conducted to determine a new scenario.The two scenarios were assessed by logical regression analysis.The landslide susceptibility maps produced by logical regression analysis were validated by the success rate curve and the cumulative area curve.The results show that the landslide susceptibility map in the new scenario is better than that of the original one.Therefore,the landslide susceptibility map with the new scenario can be recommended as the consultation of the post-quake reconstruction,infrastructure construction and land planning.
引文
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[2]Saha A K,Gupta R P,Sarkar I,et al.An approach for GIS-based statistical landslide susceptibility zonation:With a case study in the Himalayas[J].Landslides,2005,2(1):61-69.
[3]Fell R,Corominas J,Bonnard C,et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning[J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3/4):99-111.
[4]Baeza C,Corominas J.Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of multivariate statistical techniques[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2001,26(12):1251-1263.
[5]Ayalew L,Yamagishi H,Marui H,et al.Landslides in Sado Island of Japan:PartⅡ.GIS-based susceptibility mapping with comparisons of results from two methods and verifications[J].Engineering Geology,2005,81(4):432-445.
[6]王卫东,陈燕平,钟晟.应用CF和Logistic回归模型编制滑坡危险等级区划图[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2009,40(4):1127-1133.WANG Wei-dong,CHEN Yan-ping,ZHONG Sheng.Landslides susceptibility mapped with CF and logistic regression model[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2009,40(4):1127-1133.
[7]van Westen C J,Rengers N,Soeters R.Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibility assessment[J].Natural Hazards,2003,30(3):399-419.
[8]Dai F C,Lee C F.Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS,Lantau Island,Hong Kong[J].Geomorphology,2002,42(3/4):213-228.
[9]Carrara A,Guzzetti F,Cardinali M,et al.Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard[J].Natural Hazards,1999,20(2/3):117-135.
[10]张帆宇,刘高.国道212线福津河段滑坡发育特征及成因分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2005,16(2):130-134.ZHANG Fan-yu,LIU Gao.Characteristics and mechanism of lanslsides along the Fujin river section on the national Haiway G212[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2005,16(2):130-134.
[11]Glade T,Crozier M J.The nature of landslide hazard impact[M].Wiley,Chichester:Landslide Hazard and Risk,2005:43-74.
[12]谌文武,赵志福,刘高,等.兰州—海口高速公路甘肃段工程地质问题研究[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社,2006:70-73.CHEN Wen-wu,ZHAO Zhi-fu,LIU Gao,et al.Geoengineering question in Gansu province of the highwar form Lanzhou to Haikou[M].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University Press,2006:70-73.
[13]Harlow L L.The Essence of multivariate thinking:Basic themes and methods[M].London:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,2005:199-207.
[14]Can T,Nefeslioglu H A,Gokceoglu C,et al.Susceptibility assessments of shallow earthflows triggered by heavy rainfall at three catchments by logistic regression analyses[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1/2/3/4):250-271.
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