自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研——以山西省地震灾害风险为例
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摘要
自然灾害发生的可能损失一直是灾害风险评估上的难题。本研究以自然灾害风险评估经典模型为基础,提出了新的自然灾害风险评估与风险等级划分方法,利用历史灾情和孕灾环境解决风险评价中致灾因子破坏力与灾害发生的可能,并以山西省地震灾害风险为例进行了定量化评估研究。主要改进在于:确定灾害损失率和环境参数以建立地震灾害可能损失计算模型,计算承灾体地震灾害风险的可能损失量;用标准差和对数位转换的相关计算对地震灾害风险等级进行划分。案例结果显示:山西全省发生地震灾害,可能损失风险包括房屋破坏风险超过3百万间,经济损失风险超过130亿元,人员伤亡风险将近30万人。山西省各县市之间地震灾害综合风险差异明显,最高风险区域是太原市辖区、大同市辖区、晋中市辖区等15个县市区。
The study on possible losses is one of the most important points for disaster risk management.In this paper,the classical disaster risk-assessing model was modified to assess natural disasters risks,especially in quantifying possible loss and risk severe level.Disaster risk was attributed to three main factors: disaster damage force(D),disaster resilience society exposure(E),and disaster-breeding environment(P).Disaster risk is the function of these three factors.Damage force(D) indicates damage rate of a disaster in a certain intensity,which might be obtained from results of disaster events in the past.Exposure(E) includes mainly personnel,property/economic and natural resources.D and E give the quantified vulnerability of a region.Disaster-breeding environment(P) gives the occurrence possibility of environmental conditions,such as geological structure,land surface materials,land cover,and cycling occurrence event etc.P was characterized by a parameter in this paper.Shanxi Province,a high frequent earthquake region,was taken as a case study.In the case,D and E were concerned with issues of structure of buildings,casualty rate(mortality/wounded) and GDP.Parameter of P was determined by combining historical seismic integrated intensity,seismic activity fault belts distribution,and seismic peak ground acceleration.The basic risk calculating unit was based on the county level.After possible losses were calculated,integrated loss levels and their severe levels were ranked with relative calculation on standard deviation.The results showed that: the damaged building might be more 3 million rooms,the direct economic loss would be over 13 billion RMB Yuan,and the total casualty could be near 300 thousand.In Shanxi Province,there were great differences between counties in terms of the integrated risk.Integrated risk levels were ranked into four classes.In general,high risk would mainly occur in urban areas.The highest risk level was observed in districts under the jurisdiction of 15 cities such as Taiyuan,Datong and Jinzhong.This method has improved in two aspects: firstly quantifying possible losses,and secondly avoiding the constraint in disaster prediction to make the calculation possible.
The study on possible losses is one of the most important points for disaster risk management.In this paper,the classical disaster risk-assessing model was modified to assess natural disasters risks,especially in quantifying possible loss and risk severe level.Disaster risk was attributed to three main factors: disaster damage force(D),disaster resilience society exposure(E),and disaster-breeding environment(P).Disaster risk is the function of these three factors.Damage force(D) indicates damage rate of a disaster in a certain intensity,which might be obtained from results of disaster events in the past.Exposure(E) includes mainly personnel,property/economic and natural resources.D and E give the quantified vulnerability of a region.Disaster-breeding environment(P) gives the occurrence possibility of environmental conditions,such as geological structure,land surface materials,land cover,and cycling occurrence event etc.P was characterized by a parameter in this paper.Shanxi Province,a high frequent earthquake region,was taken as a case study.In the case,D and E were concerned with issues of structure of buildings,casualty rate(mortality/wounded) and GDP.Parameter of P was determined by combining historical seismic integrated intensity,seismic activity fault belts distribution,and seismic peak ground acceleration.The basic risk calculating unit was based on the county level.After possible losses were calculated,integrated loss levels and their severe levels were ranked with relative calculation on standard deviation.The results showed that: the damaged building might be more 3 million rooms,the direct economic loss would be over 13 billion RMB Yuan,and the total casualty could be near 300 thousand.In Shanxi Province,there were great differences between counties in terms of the integrated risk.Integrated risk levels were ranked into four classes.In general,high risk would mainly occur in urban areas.The highest risk level was observed in districts under the jurisdiction of 15 cities such as Taiyuan,Datong and Jinzhong.This method has improved in two aspects: firstly quantifying possible losses,and secondly avoiding the constraint in disaster prediction to make the calculation possible.
引文
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[17]Nadim F,Kjekstad O.Assessment of global high-risk landslide disaster hotspots.landslides 2009,3(11):213~221.
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[28]Lantada N,Irizarry J,Barbat A H,et al.Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona,Spain,using the risk-UEvulnerability index method.Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2010,8:201~229.
[29]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准.北京:地震出版社,2004.
[30]国家统计局,民政部.中国灾情报告(1949~1995).北京:中国统计出版社,1995.
[31]Chen Y,Chen Q F,et al.Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators.Natural Hazards,1998,17(3):269~283.
[32]Chen L S,Chen Y,Chen Q F,et al.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate.Natural Hazards,2001,23(2):349~364.
[33]陈棋福,陈颙,陈凌,等.全球地震灾害预测.科学通报,1999,44(1):21~25.
[34]高庆华,马宗晋,张业成,等.自然灾害评估.北京:气象出版社,2007.
[35]山西省人口普查办公室编.山西省2000年人口普查资料.北京:中国统计出版社,2002.
[36]山西省统计局,国家统计局.2001年山西省统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2001.
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[39]Kijko A,Retief S,Graham G.Seismic hazard and risk assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa:PartⅠ-Assessmentof seismic risk.natural hazards,2002,26(2):175~201.
[40]Kijko A,Retief S,Graham G.Seismic hazard and risk assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa:PartⅡ-Assessmentof seismic risk.Natural Hazards,2003,30(1):25~41.
[41]陈立春,王虎,冉勇康,等.玉树MS7.1级地震地表破裂与历史大地震.科学通报,2010,55(13):1200~1205.
[2]中华人民共和国国务院办公厅.国家综合减灾“十一五”规划.北京,2007.
[3]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究.地球科学进展,2009,24(4):428~435.
[4]徐伟,王静爱,史培军,等.中国城市地震灾害危险度评价.自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):9~15.
[5]聂高众,高建国,马宗晋,等.中国未来10~15年地震灾害的风险评估.自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):68~73.
[6]Shi P J,Du J,Ji M X,et al.Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China.Advances inEarth Science,2006,21(2):170~177.
[7]朱良峰,殷坤龙,张梁,等.基于GIS技术的地质灾害风险分析系统研究.工程地质学报,2002,10(4):428~433.
[8]Remondo J,Bonachea J,Cendrero A.A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale:from land-slide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment.Landslides,2005,2(4):321~328.
[9]王静爱,史培军,王平.中国自然灾害时空格局.北京:科学出版社,2006.
[10]Lee S,Pradhan B.Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor,Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regressionmodels.Landslides,2007,4(1):33~41.
[11]Guzzetti F,Carrara A,Cardinali M,et al.Landslide hazard evaluation:a review of current techniques and theirapplication in a multi-scale study,Central Italy.Geomorphology,1999,31(1-4):181~216.
[12]Sarris A,Loupasakis C,Soupios P,et al.Earthquake vulnerability and seismic risk assessment of urban areas inhigh seismic regions:application to Chania City,Crete Island,Greece.Natural Hazards,2010,54(2):395~412.
[13]全国减灾救灾标准化技术委员会.综合灾害风险分类标准.北京:中国标准出版社,2010.
[14]Balassanian S Y,Melkoumian M G,Arakelyan A R,et al.Seismic risk assessment for the territory of Armenia andstrategy of its mitigation.Natural Hazards,1999,20(1):43~55.
[15]Catani F,Casagli N,Ermini L,et al.Landslide hazard and risk mapping at catchment scale in the Arno River ba-sin.Landslides,2005,2(4):329~342.
[16]Meroni F,Zonno G.Seismic Risk Evaluation.Survey Geophys,2000,21(2):257~267.
[17]Nadim F,Kjekstad O.Assessment of global high-risk landslide disaster hotspots.landslides 2009,3(11):213~221.
[18]Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.Landslide risk assessment and management:an overview.Engineering Geology,2002,64(1):65~87.
[19]Zonno G.,Garcia-Fernandez M,Jimenez M J,et al.The SERGISAI procedure for seismic risk assessment.Journalof Seismology,2003,7(2):259~277.
[20]Pasquale G D,Orsini G,Romeo R W.New developments in seismic risk assessment in Italy.Bulletin of Earth-quake Engineering,2005,3(1):101~128.
[21]United Nations Disaster Relief Organization.Mitigating Natural Disasters:Phenomena,Effects and Options(AManual for Policy makers and Planners).New York:United Nations,1991.
[22]葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[23]山西省地图集编纂委员会.山西省灾害地图集.济南:山东省地图出版社,2007.
[24]山西省统计局,国家统计局.2009年山西省统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[25]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.中国地震烈度表(GB/T 17742-2008).北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[26]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估(GB/T 18208.4-2005).北京:中国标准出版社,2005.
[27]中华人民共和国建设部,国家质量监督检验检疫总局.建筑抗震设计规范.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2001.
[28]Lantada N,Irizarry J,Barbat A H,et al.Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona,Spain,using the risk-UEvulnerability index method.Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2010,8:201~229.
[29]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准.北京:地震出版社,2004.
[30]国家统计局,民政部.中国灾情报告(1949~1995).北京:中国统计出版社,1995.
[31]Chen Y,Chen Q F,et al.Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators.Natural Hazards,1998,17(3):269~283.
[32]Chen L S,Chen Y,Chen Q F,et al.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate.Natural Hazards,2001,23(2):349~364.
[33]陈棋福,陈颙,陈凌,等.全球地震灾害预测.科学通报,1999,44(1):21~25.
[34]高庆华,马宗晋,张业成,等.自然灾害评估.北京:气象出版社,2007.
[35]山西省人口普查办公室编.山西省2000年人口普查资料.北京:中国统计出版社,2002.
[36]山西省统计局,国家统计局.2001年山西省统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2001.
[37]国家科委国家计委国家经贸委自然灾害综合研究组.中国自然灾害区划研究的进展.北京:海洋出版社,1998.
[38]高庆华,张业成,刘惠敏,等.中国自然灾害风险与区域安全性分析.北京:气象出版社,2005.
[39]Kijko A,Retief S,Graham G.Seismic hazard and risk assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa:PartⅠ-Assessmentof seismic risk.natural hazards,2002,26(2):175~201.
[40]Kijko A,Retief S,Graham G.Seismic hazard and risk assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa:PartⅡ-Assessmentof seismic risk.Natural Hazards,2003,30(1):25~41.
[41]陈立春,王虎,冉勇康,等.玉树MS7.1级地震地表破裂与历史大地震.科学通报,2010,55(13):1200~1205.
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