汶川特大地震后安县疫情的地理流行病学分析方法
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摘要
在分析汶川特大地震后安县2008年5~7月份的流行病学数据的过程中,作者探索了安县震后疫情地理分布、疾病构成、易感人群及其时序变化等特征的地理流行病学方法,并给出了有关专题地图、过程曲线和统计表格。它们能够形象、直观、准确地反映安县震后的疫情态势地理分布,进而使防控工作有的放矢、对症下药,收到事半功倍的效果。在此基础上,作者分析了地理流行病学方法的固有优势、实施关键、应用模式,以及今后的防治方向。为确保震后疫情流行病学数据在空间性、时效性和完整性上的质量,今后对地理流行病学方法的研究,应该从目前的疫情现状描述层次,尽快地向疫情分析预测、防控决策支持等层次延伸。
At 2∶28 p.m.on 12 May,2008,a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale hit Wenchuan County,Sichuan Province in southwest China,and resulted in death of thousands of people.The author went to An County that located close to Beichuan County as an emergency response team member of public health.Some geographic epidemiological methods were used to explore the geographic features and distribution of the diseases and high risk population in An County after Wenchuan earthquake.Thematic maps,curves and statistics tables were developed.The methods are tools to help public health workers to understand the sanitation situations after earthquakes visually,gradually and directly.According to the results mentioned above,the discussion on geographic epidemiology methods has been carried out from different aspects,such as their inherent advantages,key points and modes of their implementation,and the direction of further study in the field.The important conclusions obtained are:1)the successful usage of the geographic epidemiology is relied on the quality of epidemiology data with positioning accuracy,the frequency of updating and completeness of content;2)the targets of the study in the field must extend from the outbreak description to the forecasting of the outbreaks and decision making for their control and prevention as soon as possible;3) dynamic method will be used in future studies to demonstrate real in situ circumstances on time;4) decision support,early warning and forecasting will be the new outcome of the geographic epidemiology.It will be done in future studies.
At 2∶28 p.m.on 12 May,2008,a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale hit Wenchuan County,Sichuan Province in southwest China,and resulted in death of thousands of people.The author went to An County that located close to Beichuan County as an emergency response team member of public health.Some geographic epidemiological methods were used to explore the geographic features and distribution of the diseases and high risk population in An County after Wenchuan earthquake.Thematic maps,curves and statistics tables were developed.The methods are tools to help public health workers to understand the sanitation situations after earthquakes visually,gradually and directly.According to the results mentioned above,the discussion on geographic epidemiology methods has been carried out from different aspects,such as their inherent advantages,key points and modes of their implementation,and the direction of further study in the field.The important conclusions obtained are:1)the successful usage of the geographic epidemiology is relied on the quality of epidemiology data with positioning accuracy,the frequency of updating and completeness of content;2)the targets of the study in the field must extend from the outbreak description to the forecasting of the outbreaks and decision making for their control and prevention as soon as possible;3) dynamic method will be used in future studies to demonstrate real in situ circumstances on time;4) decision support,early warning and forecasting will be the new outcome of the geographic epidemiology.It will be done in future studies.
引文
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[2]Liang N J,et al.Disaster Epidemiology and Medical Re-sponse in the Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan.Ann EmergMed,2001,38(5):549-55.
[3]Chan C C,et al.APopulation-based Study on the Imme-diate and Prolonged Effects of the 1999 Taiwan Earth-quake on Mortality.Ann Epidemiol,2003,13(7):502-8.
[4]Akbari ME,Farshad AA,Asadi-Lari M.The Devastationof Bam:An Overview of Health Issues 1 Month after theEarthquake.Public Health,2004,118(6):403-8.
[5]Karadenizli A,et al.Outbreak of Tularaemia in Golcuk,Turkey in 2005:Report of5 Cases and an Overviewof theLiterature from Turkey.Scand J Infect Dis,2005,37(10):712-6.
[6]Saenz R,Bissell R A,Paniagua F.Post-disaster Malariain Costa Rica.Prehosp Disaster Med,1995,10(3):154-60.
[7]Floret N,et al.Negligible Risk for Epidemics after Geo-physical Disasters.Emerg Infect Dis,2006,12(4):543-8.
[8]Joanna C W,Audrey E S.Earthquakes in El Salvador.ADescriptive Study of Health Concerns in a Rural Commu-nity and the Clinical Implications-Part I.Disaster Man-agement&Response,2003,1(4):105-109.
[9]Joanna C W,Audrey E S.Earthquakes in El Salvador:ADescriptive Study of Health Concerns in a Rural Commu-nity and the Clinical Implications-Part II.Disaster Man-agement&Response,2004,2(2):10-13.
[10]Joanna C W,Audrey E S.Earthquakes in El Salvador:A Descriptive Study of Health Concerns in a Rural Com-munity and the Clinical Implications-PartⅢ.DisasterManagement&Response,2004,2(2):40-45.
[11]曾光,訾维廉等.中国两次特大自然灾害后的公共卫生服务.中华流行病学杂志,2001,22(2):87-89.
[12]吴系科.地理流行病学——第十六章,流行病学(第一卷).第二版,耿贯一主编,北京:人民出版社,1979,347-362.
[13]Melinda S M,Robert J E.Medical Geography,SecondEdition,The Guilford Press,New York,London,2005,59-71.
[14]聂树人.医学地理学概论.西安:陕西师范大学出版社,1988.
[15]Melinda S M,Robert J E.Medical Geography,SecondEdition,The Guilford Press,New York,London,2005,59-71.
[16]聂树人.医学地理学概论.西安:陕西师范大学出版社,1988.
[17]毛锋,马金锋,周文生.北京防震历史经验与汶川地震灾后城镇选址重建.地球信息科学,2008,10(4).
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