我国生态中心计算方法及定迁都生态安全损益分析
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摘要
在"复合面积重心法"计算国土几何、生态、水资源、经济中(重)心的基础上,利用2008年面板数据分别确定了我国的陆地、全版图几何中(重)心及我国的人口、经济、生态、水资源和粮食中(重)心。比较了各重心与北京之间的生态距离,结果表明北京偏离各指标重心620～1487km。对定都北京62年后逐步显现的生态限制因子如水、大气及地形、地震等因子的限制作用进行了定性定量分析。研究"迁都"最佳位置(备选)的水源区域、核战争威胁的安全区域、最佳物产分布区域、最佳人文地理环境。对"迁都"的国家层面之损失和收益、物质成本和机会成本、迁都后的北京的发展、"迁与不迁"的抉择进行了限制生态因子方法、生态经济成本损益综合评估方法和生产力布局时空分析方法的研究。
The barycenter calculated by composite proportion is parameterized according to the data of statistical yearbooks to calculate and interpret the geometry barycenter of land and entirely territory,as well as the barycenter of population,economy,ecology,water resource,and commissariat.By comparing the distance between the barycenters and Beijing,we find that the deviation is about 620 to 1487 km,which is not good for region administration.Besides,we analyze Beijing's problem within the confines of the factors such as water,gas,landform,geology and earthquake after establishing capital in Beijing 61 years later.We discuss the area of the fullest water, the martial security area under threat of nuclear warfare,the area of the most products,and the area of the best anthropogeography in the best location for establishing a new capital.Finally,we evaluate the loss and benefit,physical cost and opportunity cost,development of Beijing after its moving to a new place,and choice of moving or not using different evaluation methods..
The barycenter calculated by composite proportion is parameterized according to the data of statistical yearbooks to calculate and interpret the geometry barycenter of land and entirely territory,as well as the barycenter of population,economy,ecology,water resource,and commissariat.By comparing the distance between the barycenters and Beijing,we find that the deviation is about 620 to 1487 km,which is not good for region administration.Besides,we analyze Beijing's problem within the confines of the factors such as water,gas,landform,geology and earthquake after establishing capital in Beijing 61 years later.We discuss the area of the fullest water, the martial security area under threat of nuclear warfare,the area of the most products,and the area of the best anthropogeography in the best location for establishing a new capital.Finally,we evaluate the loss and benefit,physical cost and opportunity cost,development of Beijing after its moving to a new place,and choice of moving or not using different evaluation methods..
引文
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[3]吴殿廷,袁俊,何龙娟,陈向玲.迁都——中部崛起的重要途径[J].地域研究与开发,2006,25(06):12-17.
[4]孙儒泳,李庆芬,牛翠娟,娄安如.基础生态学[M].高等教育出版社,2002.
[5]王颖,路紫.改革开放以来我国生产力布局的空间结构的演进与趋势[J].山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008, 22(1):117-123.
[6]欧阳志云,王如松,赵景柱.生态系统服务功能及其生态价值评价[J].应用生态学报,1999,10(5):635-640.
[7]中国人民共和国国家统计局国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2009).北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[8]高歌,黄朝迎.中国水资源年景评估方法及其应用研究.应用气象学报[J],2005,16(03):105-110.
[9]中华人民共和国建设部.民用建筑热工设计规范. (GB50176-93),1993,(10).
[10]时振梁,王健,张晓东.中国地震活动性分区特征.地震学报,1995,17(1):20-24.
[11]汤爱民.大整合.北京:中国经济出版社,2000.
[12]王西琴,张远.我国七大流域河道生态用水现状评价.自然资源学报,2008,(1):95-102.
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