强震复发间隔变异系数的一种计算方法
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
确定强震复发间隔变异系数在强震发生概率的计算中具有重要意义.考虑到由小样本量地震序列计算得到变异系数的估计值与实际值可能存在一定的偏差,本文提出了一种计算强震复发间隔变异系数的新方法.该方法首先利用最大似然估计法计算出大量小样本地震序列的变异系数估计值;然后先对这些变异系数的估计值进行标准化处理,再对这些标准化的变异系数估计值进行统计分析;最后在广泛搜集的39个地震序列的基础上,利用该方法计算得到一个通用的变异系数值(α=0.34),并讨论了该值的物理意义及其应用.
Determining the aperiodicity parameterα(equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation)is important for calculating the possibility of large earthquake occurrence.Considering the deviation between the estimate values ofαfrom small sample of earthquake sequences and the actual values ofα,this paper presents a new method for computingα.Firstly,a large number of estimated values ofαfor small samples from earthquake sequences are calculated by maximum likelihood estimate method,and then the estimated values are standardized and statistically analyzed.Finally,based on the 39 recurrent earthquake sequences,ageneral value ofαis given(α=0.34),and the physical meaning and application of the value are also discussed.
引文
柴炽章,廖玉华,张文孝,许文俊,申旭辉,田勤俭.2001.灵武断裂晚第四纪古地震及其破裂特征[J].地震地质,23(1):15--23.Chai Z Z,Liao Y H,Zhang W X,Xu W J,Shen X H,Tian Q J.2001.Late Quaternary paleoearthquakes and their rupture features along the Lingwu fault[J].Seismology and Geology,23(1):15--23(in Chinese).
    陈立春.2002.河套断陷带的古地震、强震复发规律和未来可能强震地点[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所:16--48.Chen L C.2002.Paleoearthquakes,the Law of Strong Earthquake Recurrence and Potential Sites for the Occurrence ofFuture Strong Earthquakes in the Hetao Fault-Depression Zone[D].Beijing:Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration:16--48(in Chinese).
    李正芳,周本刚,冉洪流.2012.运用古地震数据评价东昆仑断裂带东段未来百年的强震危险性[J].地球物理学报,55(9):3051--3065.Li Z F,Zhou B G,Ran H L.2012.Strong earthquake risk assessment of eastern segment on the East Kunlun fault in thenext 100years based on paleo-earthquake data[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,55(9):3051--3056(in Chinese).
    刘静,汪良谋.1996.运用活断层资料评价汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J].地震学报,18(4):427--436.Liu J,Wang L M.1996.Using active fault data to evaluate long-term earthquake risk in Fen-Wei earthquake zone[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,18(4):427--436(in Chinese).
    闵伟,张培震,邓起东.2000.区域古地震复发行为的初步研究[J].地震学报,22(2):163--170.Min W,Zhang P Z,Deng Q D.2000.Primary research of regional paleoearthquake recurrence[J].Acta SeismologicaSinica,22(2):163--170(in Chinese).
    冉勇康,张培震,陈立春.2003.河套断陷带大青山山前断裂晚第四纪古地震完整性研究[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):207--216.Ran Y K,Zhang P Z,Chen L C.2003.Research on the completeness of paleoseismic activity history since Late Quaternary along the Daqingshan piedmont fault in Hetao depression zone,North China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):207--216(in Chinese).
    时振梁,汪良谋,傅征祥,金学申.1997.中国大陆中长期强震危险性预测方法研究[M].北京:海洋出版社:31--36.Shi Z L,Wang L M,Fu Z X,Jin X S.1997.Study on Prediction Method of Mid-and Long-Term Strong EarthquakeRisk for the Mainland China[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press:31--36(in Chinese).
    向宏发,池田安隆,张晚霞,张秉良,虢顺民,何宏林.1999.六盘山东麓断裂的古地震研究[J].中国地震,15(1):74--81.Xiang H F,Yasutaka I,Zhang W X,Zhang B L,Guo S M,He H L.1999.Study on paleoearthquakes of the easternLiupanshan piedmont fault zone[J].Earthquake Research in China,15(1):74--81(in Chinese).
    张培震,闵伟,邓起东,毛凤英.2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律[J].中国科学:D辑,33(8):705--713.Zhang P Z,Min W,Deng Q D,Mao F Y.2003.Paleoearthquake and strong earthquake recurrence of Haiyuan fault zone[J].Science in China:Series D,33(8):705--713(in Chinese).
    郑文俊,袁道阳,何文贵.2004.祁连山东段天桥沟—黄羊川断裂古地震活动习性研究[J].地震地质,26(4):645--657.Zheng W J,Yuan D Y,He W G.2004.Characteristics of palaeo-earthquake activity along the active Tianqiaogou--Huangyangchuan fault on the eastern section of the Qilianshan mountains[J].Seismology and Geology,26(4):645--657(in Chinese).
    Atwater B F,Hemphill-Haley E.1997.Recurrence Intervals for Great Earthquakes of the Past 3500 Years at Northeastern Willapa Bay[R].Washington:U S Geological Survey Professional Paper 1576:108.
    Biasi G,Weldon R J.1998.Paleoseismic date refinement and implications for seismic hazard estimation[M]∥Dating andEarthquakes:Review of Quaternary Geochronology and Its Application to Paleoseismology.U S Nuclear Regulatory Commission,NURGE-5562:3-61-3-66.
    Ellsworth W L,Matthews M V,Nadeau R M,Nishenko S P,Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1999.A PhysicallyBased Earthquake Recurrence Model for Estimation of Long-Term Earthquake Probabilities[R].U S GeologicalSurvey Open-File Report:99--522.
    Ishibashi K,Satake K.1998.Problems on forecasting great earthquakes in the subduction zones around Japan by meansof paleoseismology[J].J Seismol Soc Japan,50(Suppl):1--21.
    Matthews M V,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes[J].Bull SeismolSoc Am,92(6):2233--2250.
    McCalpin J P,Nishenko S P.1996.Holocene paleoseismicity,temporal clustering,and probabilities of future large(M>7)earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone,Utah[J].J Geophys Res,101(B3):6233--6253.
    Nishenko S P,Buland R A.1987.A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J].Bull SeismolSoc Am,77(4):1382--1399.
    Pantosti D,Schwartz D P,Valensise G.1993.Paleoseismology along the 1980surface rupture of the Irpinia fault:Implications for earthquake recurrence in the southern Apennines,Italy[J].J Geophys Res,98(B4):6561--6577.
    Plafker G,Rubin M.1994.PaleoseismicEvidencefor“Yo-Yo”Tectonics Above the Eastern Aleutian Subduction Zone:Coseismic Uplift Alternating with Even Larger Interseismic Submergence:Proceedings of the Workshop on Paleoseismology[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report 94-568:155-157.
    Reid H F.1910.TheMechanicsoftheEarthquake,the California Earthquake of April 18,1906[R].Washinton:State Investigation Commission,Carnegie Institution of Washington,(2):43--47.
    Seitz G,Weldon R II,Biasi G P.1997.The Pitman Canyon paleoseismic record:A re-evaluation of the southern SanAndreas fault segmentation[J].J Geodyn,24(1/2/3/4):129--138.
    Sieh K,Stuiver M,Brillinger D.1989.A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas fault insouthern California[J].J Geophys Res,94(B1):603--623.
    The Tanna Fault Trenching Research Group.1983.Trenching study for Tanna fault,Izu,at Myoga,Shizuoka Prefecture,Japan[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst,Univ Tokyo,58:797--830.
    Utsu T.1984.Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst,Univ Tokyo,59(1):53--66.
    Van Dissen R J,Berryman K R.1996.Surface rupture earthquakes over the last~1000years in the Wellington region,New Zealand,and implications for ground shaking hazard[J].J Geophys Res,101(B3):5999--6019.
    Wesnousky S G.1986.Earthquake Quaternary faults,and seismic hazard in California[J].J Geophys Res,91(B12):12587--12631.
    Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.2003.Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region:2002 to 2031[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report:03-214.
    Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.2007.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast,Version 2[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report:2007-1437.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心