基于SOC的活断层系与地震活动性关系的探讨
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摘要
通过对中国大陆及青藏高原、新疆、华北和东北各构造区的地震活动性的分析,论证了区域地震活动是一种自组织临界现象。利用分形理论中的粗视化网格法,研究了中国大陆以及各构造区断层系的分形特点和分形结构的跨尺度特征。开展了组构具有分形特点的沙堆模型实验。结合断裂力学理论,认为地震的自组织临界现象源于分形几何断层系的自组织临界性动力学过程,地震分维数和断层系分维数之间存在着一种正相关关系,明确了断层系分形和地震活动性分形之间的因果关系。在此基础上,提出了系统组构的分形是系统输出能量的分形的根源的观点,并进一步利用已有的观测资料进行了分析。最后,基于这个观点和区域断层分布可以通过常规的航卫片分析、地面调查和地质勘探等手段确定的事实,提出了利用断层的分维数与地震的分维数的相关关系,对区域地震的概率分布特征进行估计的观点,可为地震的预测预报提供参考。
By analyzing the earthquake activities in the tectonic regions of the Chinese mainland,Qinghai Tibet plateau,Xinjiang,north China,and northeast China,it was demonstrated that the regional earthquake is a kind of SOC phenomena.The fractal characteristics and trans-scale features of fractal structural of faults in Chinese mainland and tectonic regions were researched comprehensively with the macroscopic grid method in fractal theory.According to the experiments result of sand pile model with fractal features and the fracture mechanics,it was suggested that the SOC phenomena of earthquake is associated with the SOC dynamic process of fractal geometry faults.There is a positive correlation between the fractal dimension of faults and earthquake.The causal relation between faults fractal and earthquake fractal was clarified.Base on the preceding conclusions,a hypothesis was proposed that the system output energy fractal is based on the fractal structure of system.Further analysis was carried on with existing observation data.Finally,based on this hypothesis,and also the fact that the region faults distribution can be determined by aerial and satellite shot,ground survey and geologic exploration,it was proposed that the probability distribution of regional earthquake can be estimate with the positive correlation of the fractal dimension between faults and earthquake.The results can be helpful for earthquake prediction.
By analyzing the earthquake activities in the tectonic regions of the Chinese mainland,Qinghai Tibet plateau,Xinjiang,north China,and northeast China,it was demonstrated that the regional earthquake is a kind of SOC phenomena.The fractal characteristics and trans-scale features of fractal structural of faults in Chinese mainland and tectonic regions were researched comprehensively with the macroscopic grid method in fractal theory.According to the experiments result of sand pile model with fractal features and the fracture mechanics,it was suggested that the SOC phenomena of earthquake is associated with the SOC dynamic process of fractal geometry faults.There is a positive correlation between the fractal dimension of faults and earthquake.The causal relation between faults fractal and earthquake fractal was clarified.Base on the preceding conclusions,a hypothesis was proposed that the system output energy fractal is based on the fractal structure of system.Further analysis was carried on with existing observation data.Finally,based on this hypothesis,and also the fact that the region faults distribution can be determined by aerial and satellite shot,ground survey and geologic exploration,it was proposed that the probability distribution of regional earthquake can be estimate with the positive correlation of the fractal dimension between faults and earthquake.The results can be helpful for earthquake prediction.
引文
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Bak P,Tang C,Wiesenfeld K.1987.Self-organized Criticality:AnExplanation of1/f Noise[J].Physical Review Letters,59(4):381-384.
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Hed G A,SolinaⅡD H,Keane D T,et al.1990.Experimental Studyof Criticality Mass Fluctuation in an Evolving Sandpile[J].Physi-cal Review Letters,65(9):1120-1123.
陈运平,席道瑛,樊星.2002.用分形理论研究海南岛的活动断裂[J].地震研究,25(4):351-355.
邓起东,徐锡伟,于贵华.1994.中国大陆活动断裂的分区特征及其成因[C]//中国地震学会地震地质专业委员会.中国活动断层研究.北京:地震出版社:1-15.
丁国瑜.1993.活断层分段——原则、方法及应用[M].北京:地震出版社.
高召宁,姚令侃,苏凤环,等.2007.大尺度散体组构分维和SOC判据研究[J].水土保持通报,27(1):86-91.
顾功叙,林庭煌,时振梁,等.1983.中国地震目录(公元前1831年～公元1969年)[M].北京:科学出版社.
国家地震局地质研究所,国家地震局地震研究所.1980.中国卫星影象地震构造判读图[M].北京:中国地图出版社.
李炜.2001.演化中的标度行为和雪崩动力学[D].武汉:华中师范大学.
任光耀,王光瑞.1994.前震预报与蠕动破裂的多体相互作用[J].中国地震,10(3):270-276.
沈军,汪一鹏.1999.用断裂滑动速率估计小江断裂带的地震危险性[J].地震研究,22(3):251-259.
苏凤环,姚令侃,高召宁.2006.分形元胞自动机在自组织临界性中的应用[J].西南交通大学学报,41(6):675-679.
特科特D L著.1993.分形与混沌——在地质学和地球物理学中的运用[M].陈颙,郑捷,季颖译.北京:地震出版社.
王博,刘耀炜,孙小龙.2008.地下流体与断裂活动关系的研究综述[J].地震研究,31(3):296-302.
Bak P,Tang C,Wiesenfeld K.1987.Self-organized Criticality:AnExplanation of1/f Noise[J].Physical Review Letters,59(4):381-384.
Bak P,Tang C.1989.Earthquakcs as a Self-organized Critical Phenom-enon[J].JGR,94(B1l):15635-15637.
Hed G A,SolinaⅡD H,Keane D T,et al.1990.Experimental Studyof Criticality Mass Fluctuation in an Evolving Sandpile[J].Physi-cal Review Letters,65(9):1120-1123.
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