我国海岸带灾害的加剧发展及其防御方略
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摘要
中国大陆海岸带绵长1.8万公里,地跨12个省市,是我国人口密集、经济发展最快的地区。出现的严重灾害有台风、风暴潮、洪涝、地震海啸、海岸侵蚀、盐水入侵、海冰、地基下沉、污染、赤潮等十类,并互相叠加,形成年直接经济损失100亿元以上。全球海平面上升与人类活动加强,使海岸带灾害加剧发展,粗略估计到下世纪初中期,导致的损失可能达到1000亿元以上,是海岸带经济发展的重要制约因素。必须提高全民防灾意识,在调查研究基础上,拟订海岸带减灾规划;加强灾害的监测、预报和预警;加高加固防潮防洪大堤与护岸工程,疏浚内陆洼地和城市排洪河道,提高排水能力;保护地下水源,严格限制过量开采,以防止地面下沉和盐水入侵;合理开发海岸带资源,保护生态环境,严格限制超标排污;积极参加国际合作,逐步限制CO_2等温室气体的排放,和缓海平面上升趋势,争取大幅度减轻海岸带灾害。
Through systematically researching the current situation of coastal hazards (including tropical cycle, storm surge, flood, tsunami, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion, sea-ice, land subsidence, pollution and red-tide) in China, this paper focuses discussion on sea level rise caused by global warming and heightening human activities, as well as the relation among each of them and the evolution of coastal hazards. The results show that, coastal hazards of China are exacerbating due to sea level rise and unreasonable human activities; By the middle of next century, economic losses caused by exacerbating coastal hazards would reach 100 billion RMB yuan in the coastal areas of China. Finally, this paper also puts forward corresponding defensive countermeasures from seven categories, these measures include drafting comprehensive programme for mitigation disas-ter, giving more effective observation and forecasting to coastal hazards, heightening the standard of defence projects, reducing unreasonable human activities and strengthening the awareness of people's preventing disaster etc.
Through systematically researching the current situation of coastal hazards (including tropical cycle, storm surge, flood, tsunami, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion, sea-ice, land subsidence, pollution and red-tide) in China, this paper focuses discussion on sea level rise caused by global warming and heightening human activities, as well as the relation among each of them and the evolution of coastal hazards. The results show that, coastal hazards of China are exacerbating due to sea level rise and unreasonable human activities; By the middle of next century, economic losses caused by exacerbating coastal hazards would reach 100 billion RMB yuan in the coastal areas of China. Finally, this paper also puts forward corresponding defensive countermeasures from seven categories, these measures include drafting comprehensive programme for mitigation disas-ter, giving more effective observation and forecasting to coastal hazards, heightening the standard of defence projects, reducing unreasonable human activities and strengthening the awareness of people's preventing disaster etc.
引文
1 包澄澜等.海洋灾害及预报.北京:海洋出版社,1991
2 蔡则怡.中国台风灾害.见:孙广忠等编著.中国自然灾害.北京:学术书刊出版社,1990,103～116
3 赵德三等.山东沿海区域环境与灾害.北京:科学出版社,1991
4 杨华庭.中国海洋灾害基本概况及其防御对策.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1992,259～267
5 凌泽民.中国沿海城市地面沉降现状及问题.南京大学学报 自然灾害研究专辑,1991,334～338
6 季子修.长江三角洲附近地区的海岸侵蚀及海平面上升对海岸侵蚀影响的初步分析.南京地理与湖泊所论文,1991
7 刘瑞珊.渤海沿岸,海蚀破坏严重-海滩挖沙,水源贫乏是主要原因.中国科学报,1993年10月22日
8 温国平,程金沐.海面上升对珠江三角洲主要城市排水及其纳污河流水质影响预测和对策研究.佛山市环境保护监测中心站,1992
9 范锦春.海平面上升对珠江三角洲水环境影响.见:海平面上升对大河三角洲的影响和对策.北京:科学出版社,1994 ??(印刷中)
10 卢鼎元.海平面上升对上海水利方面的影响.
11 何洪.海平面上升对珠江三角洲潮位的影响.
12 王颖.海平面上升与海滩效应.中国科学院地学部.海平面上升对我国沿海地区经济发展影响与对策研讨会论文,见:论文摘要汇编.1993
13 朱慧芳,徐海根,贺松林,陈吉余.海平面上升对长江河口三角洲海岸影响的初步分析.华东师范大学河口海岸研究所,1993
14 李素琼.海平面上升对珠江三角洲咸潮入侵可能的影响.珠江水利委员会科研所,1992
15 杨桂山,朱季文.全球海平面上升对长江口盐水入侵影响的研究.中国科学B辑,1993,23(1) :69～76
16 张声才.海平面上升对广州市区高水位影响预测.华南师范大学地理系,1993
17 朱季文,季子修等.长江三角洲地区海面变化趋势和影响评估.见:赵希涛等编.中国海面变化:过去、现在和未来.济南:山东科技出版社,1993(印刷中)
18 夏东兴、刘振夏等.渤海湾西岸海平面上升威胁的防治对策.自然灾害学报,1993,2(1) :48～52
19 国家海洋环境监测中心,海洋国土整治及环境保护研究.1992
20 孙顺才,蔡则怡.长江中游及三角洲地区洪涝灾害及其原因与减灾对策研究.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,199～207
21 刘树坤,程晓陶.洪水灾害与防洪对策.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科技出版社,216～221
22 Netherlands Ministry of Transport and Public Works. Tidal Water Division, Rising waters. Impacts of the greenhouse effect for the Netherlands, Hague. 1990
23 Hansen, J. and Lebedeff, S. Global trends of measured surface air temperature. Jour. of Geophysicl Research, 1987, 92(11) : 13345～13372
24 Intergovermental Panel on Climate Changs. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assesssment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1990
25 Chen Jiyu and Chen Xiqing. Major hazards in the coastal areas of China, Their mitigatian and associated planning policy. In: Shi yafeng, C. Embletun ed. Geo. Hazards and their Mitigatian. Beijing: Science Press, 1992
26 Barnett, T. P. Global sea level change, NCPO, Climate variation over the past centusy and greenhouse effect. A report based on the first climate trends workshop, Washingfon D. C. 1988
27 Warrick, R. A. and Oerlemans, H. Sea level rise. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge university Press, 1990, 275～282
28 Hulme, M. Wigley, T. TaoJiang, Zongei Zhao et al. Climate change due to the greenhouse effect and its implication for China. World Wide Fund for Nature, Switzerland. 1992
29 Pirazolli, P. A. Present and near future global sea level change. Paleogeograpgy, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology, 1989, 75:241～258
30 Han Mukang. Sea level rise on China's coastal plains Tiempo, 1992, 6:17～21
2 蔡则怡.中国台风灾害.见:孙广忠等编著.中国自然灾害.北京:学术书刊出版社,1990,103～116
3 赵德三等.山东沿海区域环境与灾害.北京:科学出版社,1991
4 杨华庭.中国海洋灾害基本概况及其防御对策.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,1992,259～267
5 凌泽民.中国沿海城市地面沉降现状及问题.南京大学学报 自然灾害研究专辑,1991,334～338
6 季子修.长江三角洲附近地区的海岸侵蚀及海平面上升对海岸侵蚀影响的初步分析.南京地理与湖泊所论文,1991
7 刘瑞珊.渤海沿岸,海蚀破坏严重-海滩挖沙,水源贫乏是主要原因.中国科学报,1993年10月22日
8 温国平,程金沐.海面上升对珠江三角洲主要城市排水及其纳污河流水质影响预测和对策研究.佛山市环境保护监测中心站,1992
9 范锦春.海平面上升对珠江三角洲水环境影响.见:海平面上升对大河三角洲的影响和对策.北京:科学出版社,1994 ??(印刷中)
10 卢鼎元.海平面上升对上海水利方面的影响.
11 何洪.海平面上升对珠江三角洲潮位的影响.
12 王颖.海平面上升与海滩效应.中国科学院地学部.海平面上升对我国沿海地区经济发展影响与对策研讨会论文,见:论文摘要汇编.1993
13 朱慧芳,徐海根,贺松林,陈吉余.海平面上升对长江河口三角洲海岸影响的初步分析.华东师范大学河口海岸研究所,1993
14 李素琼.海平面上升对珠江三角洲咸潮入侵可能的影响.珠江水利委员会科研所,1992
15 杨桂山,朱季文.全球海平面上升对长江口盐水入侵影响的研究.中国科学B辑,1993,23(1) :69～76
16 张声才.海平面上升对广州市区高水位影响预测.华南师范大学地理系,1993
17 朱季文,季子修等.长江三角洲地区海面变化趋势和影响评估.见:赵希涛等编.中国海面变化:过去、现在和未来.济南:山东科技出版社,1993(印刷中)
18 夏东兴、刘振夏等.渤海湾西岸海平面上升威胁的防治对策.自然灾害学报,1993,2(1) :48～52
19 国家海洋环境监测中心,海洋国土整治及环境保护研究.1992
20 孙顺才,蔡则怡.长江中游及三角洲地区洪涝灾害及其原因与减灾对策研究.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科学技术出版社,199～207
21 刘树坤,程晓陶.洪水灾害与防洪对策.见:黄鼎成等编.中国自然灾害灾情分析与减灾对策.武汉:湖北科技出版社,216～221
22 Netherlands Ministry of Transport and Public Works. Tidal Water Division, Rising waters. Impacts of the greenhouse effect for the Netherlands, Hague. 1990
23 Hansen, J. and Lebedeff, S. Global trends of measured surface air temperature. Jour. of Geophysicl Research, 1987, 92(11) : 13345～13372
24 Intergovermental Panel on Climate Changs. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assesssment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1990
25 Chen Jiyu and Chen Xiqing. Major hazards in the coastal areas of China, Their mitigatian and associated planning policy. In: Shi yafeng, C. Embletun ed. Geo. Hazards and their Mitigatian. Beijing: Science Press, 1992
26 Barnett, T. P. Global sea level change, NCPO, Climate variation over the past centusy and greenhouse effect. A report based on the first climate trends workshop, Washingfon D. C. 1988
27 Warrick, R. A. and Oerlemans, H. Sea level rise. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge university Press, 1990, 275～282
28 Hulme, M. Wigley, T. TaoJiang, Zongei Zhao et al. Climate change due to the greenhouse effect and its implication for China. World Wide Fund for Nature, Switzerland. 1992
29 Pirazolli, P. A. Present and near future global sea level change. Paleogeograpgy, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology, 1989, 75:241～258
30 Han Mukang. Sea level rise on China's coastal plains Tiempo, 1992, 6:17～21
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