前兆逆向追踪法与台湾地震前兆

英文篇名：Reverse tracing of precursors and earthquake precursors in eastern Taiwan region
中文刊名：地震学报
英文刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica
作者：王丽萍 ; 李勇 ; 马丽 ; 张淑梅
英文作者：Wang Liping1) Li Yong1) ; Ma Li2) Zhang Shumei1)1) School of Mathematical Science ; Beijing Normal University ; Key Laboratory of Mathematics and Complex Systems ; Ministry of Education ; Beijing 100875 ; China 2) Institute of Earthquake Science ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100036 ; China
中文关键词：地震前兆 ; 前兆逆向追踪 ; 地震链 ; 线性判别
英文关键词：earthquake precursor ; reverse tracing of precursor ; seismic chain ; linear discriminant
出版日期：2008-01-15
机构：北京师范大学数学科学学院数学与复杂系统教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学数学科学学院,数学与复杂系统教育部重点实验室,中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京师范大学数学科学学院,数学与复杂系统教育部重点实验室,
年：2008
期：01
出版单位：地震学报

摘要

用前兆逆向追踪法研究台湾东部地区大地震前兆,讨论适合该地区地震链和中期图象的参数,确定地震链的中期图象阈值.将线性判别方法应用于地震链的中期图象,给出一种探索大地震前兆的途径.数据分析结果表明,这种途径可降低对该地区大地震的虚报率;前兆逆向追踪法在台湾地区是适用的.
In this paper, we investigate the precursors of large earthquakes in eastern Taiwan region by means of the reverse tracing of precursors, find the suitable parameters for seismic chains and intermediate-term patterns, and get the threshold of the patterns. Applying the linear discriminant approach to the intermediate-term patterns of seismic chains, we present an approach to find the precursors of large earthquakes. The result of data analysis show that the method can decrease the mistake rate of false predictor for large earthquakes, and the Reverse Tracing of Precursors is suitable for eastern Taiwan region.

引文

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