宁波地震台ZK03井水温异常与8级及以上地震的关系
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摘要
通过近5年时间的观测,发现宁波台ZK03井水温测值变化具有一定的规律性。即在没有明显地震活动和干扰背景下,测值呈缓慢平稳趋势性上升,日波动值仅为仪器的短期稳定性值。虽然没有对应本学科认为的预报效能范围内的地震发生,但地球上发生的共6次8级及以上地震前,该井水温测值都有较明显的异常现象出现。除印尼8.7、8.5级地震前可能有中、短、临异常出现外,其它4次都表现为临震异常。异常主要表现形式为脉冲式向上突跳或阶跃式变化,最大异常量可达日均正常上升速率的数倍至数千倍。水温异常出现的可能原因是由于地震前的长周期波通过上地幔或软流层传播,间接地导致了地下流体温度发生了微小的变化,被高精度的测温仪记录下来。
Through 5 years observation,we found some regularity in the variation of water temperature in Ningbo ZK03 Well,that is,under no obvious interfere of earthquake activities,the observed value increase smoothly.Though there was no occurrence of local earthquakes,but it showed some anomalies before 6 over 8 magnitude global strong earthquakes.They are all imminent anomaliesis,except Indonesia 8.7 and 8.5 magnitude strong earthquake,which showed medium,short term and imminent anomaly.The main pattern of anomalies is impulse or step,with a maximum anomaly value about several times to thousands times to the normal daily mean value.The water temperature anomalies may be caused by the long cycle waves before earthquakes.
Through 5 years observation,we found some regularity in the variation of water temperature in Ningbo ZK03 Well,that is,under no obvious interfere of earthquake activities,the observed value increase smoothly.Though there was no occurrence of local earthquakes,but it showed some anomalies before 6 over 8 magnitude global strong earthquakes.They are all imminent anomaliesis,except Indonesia 8.7 and 8.5 magnitude strong earthquake,which showed medium,short term and imminent anomaly.The main pattern of anomalies is impulse or step,with a maximum anomaly value about several times to thousands times to the normal daily mean value.The water temperature anomalies may be caused by the long cycle waves before earthquakes.
引文
①邱永平,江西九江5.7级地震前宁波台水温异常现象探讨,2006,待刊
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[2]邱永平.宁波ZK03井水温异常与昆仑山口西8.1级地震的关系[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):141-144.
[3]邱永平.宁波地震台ZK03井水温异常与日本北海道8.0级地震的关系[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2004,25(6):49-54.
[4]邱永平.ZK03井水温异常与印尼8.7级地震的关系[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(4):13-16.
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[6]邱永平.宁波台数字式温度计三次受强雷电干扰记录的异常特征[J].华南地震,2004,24(1):69-73.
[7]国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,146.
[8]郭增建,秦保燕.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979,171.
[1]邱永平,夏超德.宁波台矿泉井水温异常与萨尔瓦多8.0级地震的关系[J].华南地震,2002,22(3):80-83.
[2]邱永平.宁波ZK03井水温异常与昆仑山口西8.1级地震的关系[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):141-144.
[3]邱永平.宁波地震台ZK03井水温异常与日本北海道8.0级地震的关系[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2004,25(6):49-54.
[4]邱永平.ZK03井水温异常与印尼8.7级地震的关系[J].华北地震科学,2005,23(4):13-16.
[5]邱永平,李慧峰.宁波台水温强远震前异常与强雷电干扰异常对比分析[J].华北地震科学,2004,22(3):20-24.
[6]邱永平.宁波台数字式温度计三次受强雷电干扰记录的异常特征[J].华南地震,2004,24(1):69-73.
[7]国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,146.
[8]郭增建,秦保燕.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979,171.
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