地震灾情快速评估方法和应用:以玉树地震为例
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摘要
地震突发性强,短时间内可造成严重伤亡和损失,需要进行应急响应和震害快速评估。针对中国震害评估中存在的空间对应性和时间有效性问题,总结分析了中国大陆地区地震烈度的已有快速评估模型,提出了考虑震源机制解的带方向的地震烈度图快速生成方法。进而在应急评估模式下,针对不同的数据完备性,设计并开发了利用GIS空间叠加分析功能的震害快速评估演进模型与方法,包括震害倒损房屋和受灾人口的定性与定量渐进评估,解决了时间有效性问题。以玉树地震为例,对倒损房屋和受灾人数进行了定性和定量评估;与国务院公布的受灾人数比对,误差为23.3%,符合国家减灾应急要求(误差<30%),表明本文模型合理、评估结果可靠,有应用前景。
The earthquake will result in severe damages in a shor time.The emergency response and rapid assessment are necessary.In view of the shortcomings of available earthquake disaster assessment methods in spatial and temporal scales,based on a review of current evaluation models for rapid assessment of seismic intensity,this paper proposes a method for generating seismic intensity map based on seismological mechanism solutions.Using available data,the chains of rapid assessment of earthquake disaster were analyzed,and different models were established for different temporal scales of data sets.By using GIS overlay,the assessment models were mathematically established and software developed,including the qualitative and quantitative assessment of damaged houses and affected population due to earthquake.Finally,taking the Yushu earthquake as an example,the affected population and damaged buildings were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed.As compared to the announced data from the State Council,the error of rapid assessment results on affected population were 23.3%,which is in the range of the demands of national disaster reduction and emergency(with error less than 30%).It shows that the method and models presented in this paper are reasonable and reliable,and is of value for future applications.
The earthquake will result in severe damages in a shor time.The emergency response and rapid assessment are necessary.In view of the shortcomings of available earthquake disaster assessment methods in spatial and temporal scales,based on a review of current evaluation models for rapid assessment of seismic intensity,this paper proposes a method for generating seismic intensity map based on seismological mechanism solutions.Using available data,the chains of rapid assessment of earthquake disaster were analyzed,and different models were established for different temporal scales of data sets.By using GIS overlay,the assessment models were mathematically established and software developed,including the qualitative and quantitative assessment of damaged houses and affected population due to earthquake.Finally,taking the Yushu earthquake as an example,the affected population and damaged buildings were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed.As compared to the announced data from the State Council,the error of rapid assessment results on affected population were 23.3%,which is in the range of the demands of national disaster reduction and emergency(with error less than 30%).It shows that the method and models presented in this paper are reasonable and reliable,and is of value for future applications.
引文
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[18]王继,俞言祥.华中、华南中强地震区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].震灾防御技术,2008,3(1):20-26.Wang Ji,Yu Yanxiang.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2008,3(1):20-26.
[19]徐国栋,方伟华,史培军,等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6):74-83.Xu Guodong,Fang Weihua,Shi Peijun,et al.Journal of EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,28(6):74-83.
[20]尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,1996,12(1):49-55.Yin Zhijian.Earthquake in China,1996,12(1):49-55.
[21]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.Ma Yuhong,Xie Lili.Journal of Earthquake Engineering andEngineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140-147.
[22]中国统计出版社.2010青海统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.Chinese Statistic Publishing House.2010 Statistical yearbook ofQinghai[M].Beijing:Chinese Statistic Publishing House,2010.
[23]国务院关于印发玉树地震灾后恢复重建总体规划的通知[EB/OL].[2010-06-13].http://www.qhys.gov.cn/html/40/47547.html.State Council on the issuance of Yushu earthquake recovery andreconstruction master plan notified[EB/OL].[2010-06-13].http://www.qhys.gov.cn/html/40/47547.html.
[2]Erdik M,Sesetyan K,Demircioglu M B,et al.Rapid earthquake lossassessment after damaging earthquakes[J].Soil Dynamics and EarthquakeEngineering,2010,doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.03.009.
[3]汤爱平,谢礼立,陶夏新.基于GIS的城市地震应急反应系统[J].东北地震研究,2001,17(2):35-40.Tang Aiping,Xie Lili,Tao Xiaxin.Seismological Research of NortheatChina,2001,17(2):35-40.
[4]兰青龙,安卫平,赵文星.地震灾害损失的分级评估[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(4):46-53.Lan Qinglong,An Weiping,Zhao Wenxing.North China EarthquakeSciences,1999,17(4):46-53.
[5]危福泉,蔡宗文,焦双健,等.基于人口统计数据的区域震害快速评估方法[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):518-524.Wei Fuquan,Cai Zongwen,Jiao Shuangjian,et al.Acta SeismologicaSinica,2008,30(5):518-524.
[6]刘欣,谢庆胜.基于GIS技术的快速震害评估方法[J].灾害学,2002,17(3):26-29.Liu Xin,Xie Qingsheng.Journal of Catastrophology,2002,17(3):26-29.
[7]王景来,宋志峰.地震灾害快速评估模型[J].地震研究,2001,24(2):162-167.Wang Jinglai,Song Zhifeng.Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(2):162-167.
[8]李萍,陶夏新,颜世菊.基于3S技术的震害快速评估[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(3):110-114.Li Ping,Tao Xiaxin,Yan Shiju.Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(3):110-114.
[9]王龙,王晓青,丁香,等.基于遥感和GIS的建筑物震害损失评估方法研究与实现[J].地震,2007,27(4):77-84.Wang Long,Wang Xiaoqing,Ding Xiang,et al.Earthquake,2007,27(4):77-84.
[10]范一大,杨思全,王磊,等.汶川地震应急监测评估方法研究[J].遥感学报,2008,12(6):858-864.Fan Yida,Yang Siquan,Wang Lei,et al.Journal of Remote Sensing,2008,12(6):858-864.
[11]赵福军,蔡山,陈曦.遥感震害快速评估技术在汶川地震中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):1-7.Zhao Fujun,Cai Shan,Chen Xi.Journal of Nature Disaters,2010,19(1):1-7.
[12]陈文凯,何少林,周中红.基于多源数据的震害快速评估方法探讨[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):76-82.Chen Wenkai,He Shaolin,Zhou Zhonghong.Northwest SeismologicalJournal,2010,32(1):76-82.
[13]胡聿贤.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.Hu Yuxian.The technology of seismic safety evaluation[M].Beijing:Earthquake Publishing House,1999.
[14]汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,等.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,16(2):99-106.Wang Suyun,Yu Yanxiang,Gao Ajia,et al.Earthquake Research inChina,2000,16(2):99-106.
[15]石树中,沈建文.上海及邻近地区地震烈度衰减规律研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003,23(1):50-54.Shi Shuzhong,Shen Jianwen.Journal of Disaster Prevention andMitigation Engineering,2003,23(1):50-54.
[16]沙海军,吕悦军,彭燕菊,等.地震烈度椭圆衰减的限定模型及其在华北地区的应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(1):28-36.Sha Haijun,Lu Yuejun,Peng Yanju,et al.Journal of DisasterPrevention and Mitigation Engineering,2004,24(1):28-36.
[17]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.四川及邻区地震动衰减关系[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):500-511.Lei Jiancheng,Gao Mengtan,Yu Yanxiang.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(5):500-511.
[18]王继,俞言祥.华中、华南中强地震区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].震灾防御技术,2008,3(1):20-26.Wang Ji,Yu Yanxiang.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2008,3(1):20-26.
[19]徐国栋,方伟华,史培军,等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6):74-83.Xu Guodong,Fang Weihua,Shi Peijun,et al.Journal of EarthquakeEngineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,28(6):74-83.
[20]尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,1996,12(1):49-55.Yin Zhijian.Earthquake in China,1996,12(1):49-55.
[21]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.Ma Yuhong,Xie Lili.Journal of Earthquake Engineering andEngineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140-147.
[22]中国统计出版社.2010青海统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.Chinese Statistic Publishing House.2010 Statistical yearbook ofQinghai[M].Beijing:Chinese Statistic Publishing House,2010.
[23]国务院关于印发玉树地震灾后恢复重建总体规划的通知[EB/OL].[2010-06-13].http://www.qhys.gov.cn/html/40/47547.html.State Council on the issuance of Yushu earthquake recovery andreconstruction master plan notified[EB/OL].[2010-06-13].http://www.qhys.gov.cn/html/40/47547.html.
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