地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示
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摘要
地震可预测性是当前地震预测预报研究关注的前沿问题,对此问题的关注也代表了地震预测预报研究的现状,即采用更务实的态度、"循序渐进"地研究地震的可预测属性。本文介绍了国际上目前在地震可预测性研究中影响较大的"地震可预测性合作研究"(Collaboratory for theStudy of Earthquake Predictability,CSEP)计划,通过对CSEP计划的历史背景、研究现状和技术特点的介绍,讨论了其对中国地震预测预报研究的可能的启发意义。
The earthquake predictability has been regarded as one of the most popular related topics in earthquake forecast/prediction study,and such attention also reflects the status quo and prospect in this field.In this paper,we give a brief introduction on the Coilaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) project,which is one of the most influential projects on earthquake predictability.The history background,technical characteristics and research progress in CSEP project are worthy of our reference and is enlightening for earthquake prediction/forecast in China.
The earthquake predictability has been regarded as one of the most popular related topics in earthquake forecast/prediction study,and such attention also reflects the status quo and prospect in this field.In this paper,we give a brief introduction on the Coilaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) project,which is one of the most influential projects on earthquake predictability.The history background,technical characteristics and research progress in CSEP project are worthy of our reference and is enlightening for earthquake prediction/forecast in China.
引文
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张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.2002． 年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,24:525～532
朱令人,洪时中,陈棋福,郑兆苾,王琼.2003． 一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J].地震,23(2) :1～11
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朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,秦卫平,郑兴树,黄世奇.1990． 地震预报效能评价的研究[J].内陆地震,4(1) :1～12
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Garavaglia E,Guagenti E,Pavani R and Petrini IL.2007． Renewal models for earthquake predictability[J].Journal of Seis mology,10． 1007/s10950 008 9147-6
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Michael A J.1997． Testing prediction methods:earthquake clustering versus a Poisson model[J].Geophys Res Lett,24,1891～1894
Molchan G M.1991． Structure of optirnal strategies in earthquake prediction[J].Tectonophysics,193,267～276
Molchan G M and Kagan Y Y.1992． Earthquake prediction and its optimization[J].J Geophys Res,97,4 823～4 838
Molchan G M.1990． Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,61,84～98
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Robinson R,Zhou S Y,Johnston S and Vere Jones D.2005． Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog:A preliminary study[J].Geophys Res Lett,32,L07309,doi:10． 1029/2005GL022576
SwetsJ A.1973． The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,182,990～1000
Wu Z L,Liu J,Zhu C Z,Jiang C S and Huang F Q.2007． Annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes in continental China:Its scientific and practical merits[J].Earthquake Research in China,21,365～371
Yamashina k.2006． Trial of earthquake prediction in Japan and a statistical test of time shift[J].Tectonophysics,417 (1～2) :169～182
ZecharJ DandJordan T H.2008． Testing alarm based earthquakepredictions[J].Geophys J Int,172,715～724
Zechar J D,Schorlemmer D,Liukis M,Yu J,Euchner F,Maechling P J and Jordan T H.2009． The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability perspective on computational earthquake science[J].Concurrency and Computation:Practice and Experience,Submitted.
石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.2000． 对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,17,63～69
吴忠良,朱传镇,蒋长胜,赵祎喆.2008． 统计地震学的基本问题[J].中国地震,24(3) :197～206
许绍燮.1989． 地震预报能力评分[M].见:国家地震局科技监测司编,地震预报方法实用化攻关文集(测震分册),北京: 地震出版社,586～589
张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.2002． 年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,24:525～532
朱令人,洪时中,陈棋福,郑兆苾,王琼.2003． 一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J].地震,23(2) :1～11
朱令人.洪时中,陈棋福,郑兆苾,王琼.2004． 一次地震预报有效性的“概率统计”评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J].地震,24(2) :119～125
朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,秦卫平,郑兴树,黄世奇.1990． 地震预报效能评价的研究[J].内陆地震,4(1) :1～12
Field E D eds.2007． Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models[J].Seism Res Lett,78,1～140
Garavaglia E,Guagenti E,Pavani R and Petrini IL.2007． Renewal models for earthquake predictability[J].Journal of Seis mology,10． 1007/s10950 008 9147-6
Hardebeck J I,Felzer K R and Michael A J.2008． Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant[J].J Geophys Res,113,B08310,doi:10． 1029/2007JB005410
Jordan T H.2006． Earthquake predictability,brick by brick[J].SeismRes Lett,77 (1) :3～6
Michael A J.1997． Testing prediction methods:earthquake clustering versus a Poisson model[J].Geophys Res Lett,24,1891～1894
Molchan G M.1991． Structure of optirnal strategies in earthquake prediction[J].Tectonophysics,193,267～276
Molchan G M and Kagan Y Y.1992． Earthquake prediction and its optimization[J].J Geophys Res,97,4 823～4 838
Molchan G M.1990． Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,61,84～98
Molchan G M.1997． Earthquake prediction asa decision-making problem[J].PureAppl Geophys,149,233～247
Robinson R,Zhou S Y,Johnston S and Vere Jones D.2005． Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog:A preliminary study[J].Geophys Res Lett,32,L07309,doi:10． 1029/2005GL022576
SwetsJ A.1973． The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,182,990～1000
Wu Z L,Liu J,Zhu C Z,Jiang C S and Huang F Q.2007． Annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes in continental China:Its scientific and practical merits[J].Earthquake Research in China,21,365～371
Yamashina k.2006． Trial of earthquake prediction in Japan and a statistical test of time shift[J].Tectonophysics,417 (1～2) :169～182
ZecharJ DandJordan T H.2008． Testing alarm based earthquakepredictions[J].Geophys J Int,172,715～724
Zechar J D,Schorlemmer D,Liukis M,Yu J,Euchner F,Maechling P J and Jordan T H.2009． The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability perspective on computational earthquake science[J].Concurrency and Computation:Practice and Experience,Submitted.
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