中国大陆M_S≥5.0地震年频次与M_S≥7.0地震发生之间的关系及显著性检验
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摘要
利用中国大陆1930年以来的5级以上地震目录,以年为单位统计7级以上地震,只要某年发生了7级以上地震就视为"有震年",不区分该年发生了多少次7级以上地震,若某年没有发生7级以上地震就视为"无震年"。分析5级以上地震年频次与"有震年"或"无震年"之间的关系,利用χ2检验方法对其显著性进行检验。结果表明:①当5级以上地震年频次N>30时,其后第6年为"无震年",这个关系在2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验;②当5级以上地震年频次N≥24时,其后第6年或第9年为"无震年",这个关系分别在10%和2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验;③当N<10时,其后第6年为"有震年",这个关系在2%的显著水平下通过显著性检验。
The years whether MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurred or not are investigated by using the MS≥5.0 earthquake catalog occurred in the Chinese mainland.The year when an MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "earthquake year",and the year when no MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "no-earthquake year".The relationships between the annual numbers of MS≥5.0 earthquakes and "earthquake year" or "no-earthquake year" are analysed,and χ2 test method has been employed to test the significance.The results obtained are as follows: ① If the annual nember of the MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than 30 in some year,the sixth year later is "no-earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent;② If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than or equal to 24 in some year,the sixth and ninth years later are "no-earthquake year".The tests of significance for these two relationships can be passed under the significance level of 10 and 2 percent respectively;③ If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is less than 10 in some year,the sixth year later is "earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent.
The years whether MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurred or not are investigated by using the MS≥5.0 earthquake catalog occurred in the Chinese mainland.The year when an MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "earthquake year",and the year when no MS≥7.0 earthquake occurred is called "no-earthquake year".The relationships between the annual numbers of MS≥5.0 earthquakes and "earthquake year" or "no-earthquake year" are analysed,and χ2 test method has been employed to test the significance.The results obtained are as follows: ① If the annual nember of the MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than 30 in some year,the sixth year later is "no-earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent;② If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is greater than or equal to 24 in some year,the sixth and ninth years later are "no-earthquake year".The tests of significance for these two relationships can be passed under the significance level of 10 and 2 percent respectively;③ If the annual nember of MS≥5.0 earthqaukes is less than 10 in some year,the sixth year later is "earthquake year".The test of significance for this relationship can be passed under the significance level of 2 percent.
引文
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[3]张国民,李献智.印度板块北边界地震活动和中国大陆地震[J].地震,1994,14(3):1-9.
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[5]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[6]张国民,马宏生.我国陆区7级地震形势分析[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.
[7]马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震活动特征的研究[J].地震地质,2006,128(1):48-60.
[8]马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,等.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,2008,28(3):8-13.
[9]邵志刚,张国民,李志雄,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究[J].地震,2008,28(3):33-42.
[10]邵志刚,马宏生,李志雄,等.中国大陆强震活动时空特征分析[J].地震,2009,29(4):98-106.
[11]马宏生,周龙泉,邵志刚,等.全球及中国大陆周边强震活动状态研究[J].地震,2010,30(2):29-37.
[12]刘文兵.中国大陆地区强震的逆向追踪方法研究[J].地震,2010,30(2):46-53.
[13]张浪平,李志雄,邵志刚,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究[J].地震,2010,30(3):53-63.
[14]章景德,高富荣,郑祖光.气象统计预报基础[M].北京:气象出版社,1995.
[15]张天中,王琳英,刘庆芳.条件概率法在地震预测指标判别中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1999,20(1A):138-141.
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