地壳形变与地震预测研究中的测量精度
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摘要
对地壳形变与地震预测研究中普遍存在对测量成果精度要求过于苛刻的问题进行了分析,结果认为这可能导致以前很多有价值的信息未能得到充分的利用。追求高质量的观测数据是对的,但针对实际问题的性质和需求,首先应强调如何充分发挥历史资料的作用,因为历史资料可能精度不高,但更可能是无法取代的。因此要最大限度地挖掘原有数据中的有用信息,切不可因误差较大而放弃可能获取有用信息的机会。并以中国大陆1999—2009两期GPS垂直形变速率场及其分析和应用为例,用实例进一步阐释这一观点。
The problem by over considered for geodetic data precision in most of the researches on crustal deformation and earthquake prediction is analyzed.The problem might let so conservative as to some valuable information in the data are not fully utilized.Pursuing high quality of the data is right,but the first consideration should be how to fully use the historic data according to the reality and the requirements,because the historic data are not replaceable.Thus,it should do the best for mining information from the data,and not give up the chance to get information from it only due to more deviation of the data.Finally,this viewpoint is further demonstrated with the results in an example,utilization and analysis of velocity field of crust vertical movement monitored by GPS in Chinese continent from 1999 to 2009.
The problem by over considered for geodetic data precision in most of the researches on crustal deformation and earthquake prediction is analyzed.The problem might let so conservative as to some valuable information in the data are not fully utilized.Pursuing high quality of the data is right,but the first consideration should be how to fully use the historic data according to the reality and the requirements,because the historic data are not replaceable.Thus,it should do the best for mining information from the data,and not give up the chance to get information from it only due to more deviation of the data.Finally,this viewpoint is further demonstrated with the results in an example,utilization and analysis of velocity field of crust vertical movement monitored by GPS in Chinese continent from 1999 to 2009.
引文
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8顾国华,等.中国地壳运动观测网络GPS数据处理进展[J].全球定位系统,2001,26(1):7-15.(Gu Guohua,etal.Progress of GPS data processing of China crust movementand monitoring network[J].Gnss World of China,2001,26(1):7-15)
9张培震,等.青藏高原现今构造变形特征与GPS速度场[J].地学前缘,2002,9(2):442-450.(Zhang Peizhen,etal.Nowadays geotectonic deformation features in Qinghai-Tibet plateau of China and GPS velocity field[J].Earth Sci-ence Frontiers,2002,9(2):442-450)
10黄立人,王敏.中国大陆构造块体的现今活动和变形[J].地震地质,2003,(1):24-33.(Huang Liren andWang Min.Present-day activity and deformation of tectonicblocks in China’s continent[J].Seismology and Geology,2003,(1):24-33:
11杨国华,马青.通量均衡意义下中国大陆现今地壳垂直运动及梯度分布与构造活动的关系[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,(4):53-58.(Yang Guohua and Ma Qing.Pres-ent vertical crustal movement and its gradient in the main-land of China under the flux-isostatic datum and some rela-tions between them and tectonic activity[J].Crustal De-formation and Earthquake,1992,(4):53-58)
12杨国华.场论方法在地壳垂直形变数据处理中的应用[J].地壳形变与地震,1991,(2):63-69.(Yang Guo-hua.The application of the method of field theory to crustalvertical deformation data processing[J].Crustal Deforma-tion and Earthquake,1991,(2):63-69)
13华北出现巨大漏斗区将引起地面沉降海水内浸[EB/OL].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2002-09-03/0825703447.html.
14农网快讯.华北形成世界最大“地下水漏斗”[EB/OL].http://www.ahnw.gov.cn/2006nwkx/html/200007/html.
2於宗俦,等.测量平差基础[M].北京:测绘出版社,1978.(Yu Zongchiu,et al.Foundation of surveying adjustment[M].Beijing:Surveying and Mapping Press,1978)
3陈俊勇.中国地壳运动观测网络简介——中国“九五”科学工程之一[J].测绘通报,1997,(2):8-11.(Chen Ju-nyong.Introduction of the crustal movement observation net-work of China—one of China“Ninth-Five”scientific pro-jects[J].Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,1997,(2):8-11)
4杨国华,等.应用GPS技术监测山西断裂带的水平运动[J].地震学报,2000,22(5):465-471.(Yang Guohua,etal.Monitoring the horizontal movement along the Shanxi faultzone by GPS measurement[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2000,22(5):465-471)
5李延兴,等.根据现代地壳垂直运动划分中国大陆活动地块边界的尝试[J].地震学报,2001,23(1):12-17.(LiYanxing,et al.Preliminary division of active block boundaryin Chinese mainland based on recent vertical crustal move-ment[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2001,23(1):12-17)
6江在森,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,(3):5-13.(Jiang Zaisen,etal.On crustal movement in China continent and its relation-ship with strong earthquakes[J].Journal of Geodesy and Ge-odynamics,2006,(3):5-13)
7王琪,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动和构造变形[J].中国科学(D辑),2001,(7):529-536.(Wang Qi,et al.Nowa-days crust movement and geotectonic deformation in Chinamainland[J].Science in China(Ser.D),2001,(7):529-536)
8顾国华,等.中国地壳运动观测网络GPS数据处理进展[J].全球定位系统,2001,26(1):7-15.(Gu Guohua,etal.Progress of GPS data processing of China crust movementand monitoring network[J].Gnss World of China,2001,26(1):7-15)
9张培震,等.青藏高原现今构造变形特征与GPS速度场[J].地学前缘,2002,9(2):442-450.(Zhang Peizhen,etal.Nowadays geotectonic deformation features in Qinghai-Tibet plateau of China and GPS velocity field[J].Earth Sci-ence Frontiers,2002,9(2):442-450)
10黄立人,王敏.中国大陆构造块体的现今活动和变形[J].地震地质,2003,(1):24-33.(Huang Liren andWang Min.Present-day activity and deformation of tectonicblocks in China’s continent[J].Seismology and Geology,2003,(1):24-33:
11杨国华,马青.通量均衡意义下中国大陆现今地壳垂直运动及梯度分布与构造活动的关系[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,(4):53-58.(Yang Guohua and Ma Qing.Pres-ent vertical crustal movement and its gradient in the main-land of China under the flux-isostatic datum and some rela-tions between them and tectonic activity[J].Crustal De-formation and Earthquake,1992,(4):53-58)
12杨国华.场论方法在地壳垂直形变数据处理中的应用[J].地壳形变与地震,1991,(2):63-69.(Yang Guo-hua.The application of the method of field theory to crustalvertical deformation data processing[J].Crustal Deforma-tion and Earthquake,1991,(2):63-69)
13华北出现巨大漏斗区将引起地面沉降海水内浸[EB/OL].http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2002-09-03/0825703447.html.
14农网快讯.华北形成世界最大“地下水漏斗”[EB/OL].http://www.ahnw.gov.cn/2006nwkx/html/200007/html.
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