断层相互作用对中国川滇地区地震危险评估的意义
摘要
研究了1904年以来发生在中国四川、云南地区的强烈地震所伴生的库仑应力变化.研究区涉及了中国大陆最活动的地震带.由于欧亚板块与印度板块沿喜马拉雅会聚带的碰撞,菱形区域的构造运动受到西藏高原向东扩展的影响,在东—西方向上受到主要板内走滑断裂运动的调节.在研究区,断层顺时针逐步旋转,转动角达90°,造成了应力场的复杂性.计算了由强地震(MS≥6.5)的同震滑动和连续构造加载在主要断裂上产生的库仑破裂函数变化(ΔCFF).在应力评估模型的每一步,对是否能触发下一次地震的可能性都进行了判断.最后,模型给出了下一次地震中断层易于破裂的证据,对未来危险性进行了评估.
Coulomb stress changes associated with the strong earthquakes occurred since 1904 in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces of China are investigated.The study area comprises the most active seismic fault zones in the mainland of China and suffers from both strong and frequent events.The tectonic regime of this rhombic-shaped area is affected by the eastern extrusion of the Tibetan plateau due to the collision of Indian against the Eurasia lithospheric block along the Himalayan Convergent Zone.This movement is accommodated on major strike slip intraplate fault zones that strike in an E--W direction.The gradual 90° clockwise rotation of the faults in the study area contributes to the complexity of the stress field.The seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb failure function(ΔCFF)arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events(MS≥6.5)and the stress built-up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults.At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence the fault segments that apt to fail in an impending strong event,thus providing future seismic hazard evaluation.
Coulomb stress changes associated with the strong earthquakes occurred since 1904 in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces of China are investigated.The study area comprises the most active seismic fault zones in the mainland of China and suffers from both strong and frequent events.The tectonic regime of this rhombic-shaped area is affected by the eastern extrusion of the Tibetan plateau due to the collision of Indian against the Eurasia lithospheric block along the Himalayan Convergent Zone.This movement is accommodated on major strike slip intraplate fault zones that strike in an E--W direction.The gradual 90° clockwise rotation of the faults in the study area contributes to the complexity of the stress field.The seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb failure function(ΔCFF)arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events(MS≥6.5)and the stress built-up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults.At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence the fault segments that apt to fail in an impending strong event,thus providing future seismic hazard evaluation.
引文
韩渭宾,蒋国芳.2004.川滇地区强震活动分布特征及其与地壳块体构造背景关系的研究[J].地震学报,26(2):211--222.
万永革,沈正康,曾跃华,盛书中.2007.青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响[J].地震学报,29(2):115--129.
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河—安宁河—则木河断裂带破裂分段特征[J].地震地质,22(2):239--249.
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,王思维.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河—则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294--303.
易桂喜,闻学泽.2000.活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系[J].地震学报,22(5):527--537.
Mozaffari,吴忠良,陈运泰.1998.用经验格林函数方法研究澜沧—耿马MS=7.6地震的破裂过程[J].地震学报,20(1):1--11.
Allen C,Gillespie A,Han Y,Sieh K,Zhang B,Zhu C.1984.Red River and associatedfaults,Yunnan Province,China:Quaternary geology,slip rates,and seismic hazard[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,95:686--700.
Allen C,Luo Z,Qian H,Wen X,Zhou H,Huang W.1991.Field study of a highly active fault zone:The Xianshuihefault of Southwestern China[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,103:1178--1199.
Armijo R,Tapponnier P,Mercier J L,Han T L.1986.Quaternary extensionin southern Tibet:Field observations andtectonic implications[J].J Geophys Res,91:13803--13872.
Chen Y T,Wu F T.1989.Langcang-Gengma earthquake:Apreliminary report on the November6,1988event anditsaftershocks[J].Eos,Trans Amer Geophys Union,12:1527--1540.
Chen Z,Burchfiel B C,Liu Y,King R W,Royden L H,Tang W,Wang E,Zhao J,Zhang X.2000.Global positioningsystem measurements fromeastern Tibet and their implications for India/Eurasia intercontinental deformation[J].JGeophys Res,105:16215--16227.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of the stress fieldin southern California andtriggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200-year perspective[J].J Geophys Res,102:9859-9886.
Engdhal E R,Van der Hilst R D,Buland R P.1998.Global teleseismic earthquake relocation withimprovedtravel timesand procedures for depth determination[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,88:722-743.
Gao Y,Wu Z L,Liu Z,Zhou HL.2000.Seismic source characteristics of nine strong earthquakes from1988to1990andearthquake activity since1970in the Sichuan-Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Zone in China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157:1423--1443.
Harris R,Simpson R.1993.In the shadowof1857:An evaluation of the static stress changes generated by theM8Ft.Tejon,California,earthquake[J].Eos,Trans Amer Geophys Union,74(43):427.
Harris R,Simpson R.1996.In the shadow of1857:The effect of the great Ft Tejon earthquake on subsequent earth-quakes in Southern California[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:229--232.
Holt W,Ni J,Wallace T,Haines A.1991.The active tectonics of the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and surrounding re-gions[J].J Geophys Res,96:14595-14632.
Holt W,Chamot-Rooke N,Le Pichon X,Haines A,Shen Tu B,Ren J.2002.Velocity fieldin Asia inferred from Qua-ternary fault slip rates and Global Positioning System[J].J Geophys Res,105:19185--19209.
JauméS C.1994.Earthquakes in An Evolving Stress/Strain Field[D].New York:Columbia University:261.
Jones L,Han W,Hauksson E,Jin A,Zhang Y,Luo Z.1984.Focal mechanisms and aftershocklocations of the Songpanearthquakes of August1976in Sichuan,China[J].J Geophys Res,89:7697--7707.
King G,Stein R,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:935--953.
Kirby E,Whipple K,Burchfiel B C,Tang W,Berger G,Sun Z,Chen Z.2000.Neotectonics of the Min Shan,China:Implications for mechanisms driving Quaternary deformation along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,112:375--393.
Leloup P,Lacassin R,Tapponier P,Scharer U,Dalai Z,Xiaohan L,Liangshang Z,Shaocheng J,Trinh P.1995.TheAilao Shan-Red River shear zone(Yunnan,China),Tertiary transformboundary of Indochina[J].Tectonophysics,251:3--84.
Molnar P,Deng Q.1984.Faulting associated withlarge earthquakes and the average rate of deformation in central andeastern Asia[J].J Geophys Res,89:6203--6227.
Molnar P,Tapponnier P.1977.Relation of the tectonics of eastern China to the India-Eurasia collision:Application ofslip-line field theory to largescale continental tectonics[J].Geology,5:212--216.
Nalbant S,McCloskey J,Steacy S,Barka A.2002.Stress accumulation andincreased seismic riskin eastern Turkey[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,195:291--298.
Nur A,Mavko G.1974.Postseimic viscoelastic rebound[J].Science,183:204-206.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:1018--1040.
Papadimitriou E,Wen X,Karakostas V,Xueshen J.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone ofwestern Sichuan,China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1683--1707.
Papazachos B,Scordilis E,Panagiotopoulos D,Papazachos C,Karakaisis G.2004.Global relations between seismic faultparameters and moment magnitude of earthquakes[J].Bull Geol Soc Greece,36:1482--1489.
Parsons T,Stein R,Reasenberg A.1999.Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity:Acomparison betweenlimited-offset ob-lique and major strike-slip faults[J].J Geophys Res,104:20183-20202.
Qin C,Papazachos C,Papadimitriou E.2002.Velocity field for crustal deformation in China derived fromseismic mo-ment tensor summation of earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,359:29--46.
Reasenberg A,Simpson R.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prietaearthquake[J].Science,255:1687--1690.
Replumaz A,Lacassin R,Tapponier P,Leloup P.2001.Large river offsets and Plio-Quaternary dextral slip rate on theRed River Fault(Yunnan,China)[J].J Geophys Res,106:819-836.
Royden L,Burchfiel C,King R,Wang E,Chen Z,Shen F,Liu Y.1997.Surface deformation andlower crustal flowineastern Tibet[J].Science,276:788--790.
Scholz C.2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:439.
Socquet A,Pubbelier M.2005.Cenozoic deformation in western Yunnan(China-Myanmar border)[J].J Asian EarthSci,24:495--515.
Stein R.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605--609.
Steketee J.1958.On Voltera′s dislocations in a semi-infinite elastic medium[J].Can J Phys,36:192--205.
Tang R,Wen D,Deng T,Huang S.1976.Apreliminary study on the characteristics of the ground fractures during theLuhuo earthquakeM=7.9,1973and the origin of the earthquake[J].Acta Geophys Sin,19:17--27(in Chinese).
Tang R,Huang Z,Qian H,Deng T,Jiang L,Ge P,Liu S,Cao Y,Zhang C.1984.On the recent tectonic activity andearthquake of Xianshuihe fault zone[C]∥A Collection of Papers of International Symposium of on ContinentalSeismicity and Earthquake Prediction.Beijing:China Seismological Press:347--363.
Toda S,Stein R,Reasenberg A,Dieterich H,Yoshida A.1998.Stress transferred by the1995MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities[J].J Geophys Res,103:24543--24565.
Wang E,Burchfiel C.2000.Late Cenozoic to Holocene deformationin southwestern Sichuan and adjacent Yunnan,Chinaandits role in formation of the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geophys Res,112:413--423.
Wen X,Yi G,Zhang P,Xu X.2002.Time dependent seismic hazard assessment for the eastern-boundary fault zone ofSichuan-Yunnan Block,China[C]∥Teruyuki Kato,Zheng Sihua eds.Proc.1st China-Japan Workshop on Earth-quake Disaster Mitigation.Japan:Earthquake Research Institute:141--154.
Xu X W,Wen XZ,Zheng RZ,Ma W,Song F,Yu G.2003.Pattern of latest tectonic motion andits dynamics for activeblocks in Sichuan-Yunnan region,China[J].Science in China(Series D),33(Supp.):210--226.
Yang Z X,Waldhauser F,Chen Y T,Richards P.2005.Double difference relocation of earthquakes in central-westernChina[J].J Seismology,9:241--264.
Zhao S,Dingbo C,Xian L,Jusheng X,Gunter S.1999.TheML=7.0Lijiang earthquake,Yunnan,China:An anticipa-ted event[J].J Geodynamics,16:529--546.
Zhou H,Allen C,Kanamori H.1983a.Rupture complexity of the1970Tonghai and1973Luhuo earthquakes,China,from P wave inversion,and relationship to surface faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:1585-1597.
Zhou H,Liu H,Kanamori H.1983b.Source processes of large earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault in southwesternChina[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:537--551.
万永革,沈正康,曾跃华,盛书中.2007.青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响[J].地震学报,29(2):115--129.
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河—安宁河—则木河断裂带破裂分段特征[J].地震地质,22(2):239--249.
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,王思维.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河—则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294--303.
易桂喜,闻学泽.2000.活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系[J].地震学报,22(5):527--537.
Mozaffari,吴忠良,陈运泰.1998.用经验格林函数方法研究澜沧—耿马MS=7.6地震的破裂过程[J].地震学报,20(1):1--11.
Allen C,Gillespie A,Han Y,Sieh K,Zhang B,Zhu C.1984.Red River and associatedfaults,Yunnan Province,China:Quaternary geology,slip rates,and seismic hazard[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,95:686--700.
Allen C,Luo Z,Qian H,Wen X,Zhou H,Huang W.1991.Field study of a highly active fault zone:The Xianshuihefault of Southwestern China[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,103:1178--1199.
Armijo R,Tapponnier P,Mercier J L,Han T L.1986.Quaternary extensionin southern Tibet:Field observations andtectonic implications[J].J Geophys Res,91:13803--13872.
Chen Y T,Wu F T.1989.Langcang-Gengma earthquake:Apreliminary report on the November6,1988event anditsaftershocks[J].Eos,Trans Amer Geophys Union,12:1527--1540.
Chen Z,Burchfiel B C,Liu Y,King R W,Royden L H,Tang W,Wang E,Zhao J,Zhang X.2000.Global positioningsystem measurements fromeastern Tibet and their implications for India/Eurasia intercontinental deformation[J].JGeophys Res,105:16215--16227.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of the stress fieldin southern California andtriggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200-year perspective[J].J Geophys Res,102:9859-9886.
Engdhal E R,Van der Hilst R D,Buland R P.1998.Global teleseismic earthquake relocation withimprovedtravel timesand procedures for depth determination[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,88:722-743.
Gao Y,Wu Z L,Liu Z,Zhou HL.2000.Seismic source characteristics of nine strong earthquakes from1988to1990andearthquake activity since1970in the Sichuan-Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Zone in China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157:1423--1443.
Harris R,Simpson R.1993.In the shadowof1857:An evaluation of the static stress changes generated by theM8Ft.Tejon,California,earthquake[J].Eos,Trans Amer Geophys Union,74(43):427.
Harris R,Simpson R.1996.In the shadow of1857:The effect of the great Ft Tejon earthquake on subsequent earth-quakes in Southern California[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:229--232.
Holt W,Ni J,Wallace T,Haines A.1991.The active tectonics of the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and surrounding re-gions[J].J Geophys Res,96:14595-14632.
Holt W,Chamot-Rooke N,Le Pichon X,Haines A,Shen Tu B,Ren J.2002.Velocity fieldin Asia inferred from Qua-ternary fault slip rates and Global Positioning System[J].J Geophys Res,105:19185--19209.
JauméS C.1994.Earthquakes in An Evolving Stress/Strain Field[D].New York:Columbia University:261.
Jones L,Han W,Hauksson E,Jin A,Zhang Y,Luo Z.1984.Focal mechanisms and aftershocklocations of the Songpanearthquakes of August1976in Sichuan,China[J].J Geophys Res,89:7697--7707.
King G,Stein R,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:935--953.
Kirby E,Whipple K,Burchfiel B C,Tang W,Berger G,Sun Z,Chen Z.2000.Neotectonics of the Min Shan,China:Implications for mechanisms driving Quaternary deformation along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geol Soc Amer Bull,112:375--393.
Leloup P,Lacassin R,Tapponier P,Scharer U,Dalai Z,Xiaohan L,Liangshang Z,Shaocheng J,Trinh P.1995.TheAilao Shan-Red River shear zone(Yunnan,China),Tertiary transformboundary of Indochina[J].Tectonophysics,251:3--84.
Molnar P,Deng Q.1984.Faulting associated withlarge earthquakes and the average rate of deformation in central andeastern Asia[J].J Geophys Res,89:6203--6227.
Molnar P,Tapponnier P.1977.Relation of the tectonics of eastern China to the India-Eurasia collision:Application ofslip-line field theory to largescale continental tectonics[J].Geology,5:212--216.
Nalbant S,McCloskey J,Steacy S,Barka A.2002.Stress accumulation andincreased seismic riskin eastern Turkey[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,195:291--298.
Nur A,Mavko G.1974.Postseimic viscoelastic rebound[J].Science,183:204-206.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:1018--1040.
Papadimitriou E,Wen X,Karakostas V,Xueshen J.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone ofwestern Sichuan,China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1683--1707.
Papazachos B,Scordilis E,Panagiotopoulos D,Papazachos C,Karakaisis G.2004.Global relations between seismic faultparameters and moment magnitude of earthquakes[J].Bull Geol Soc Greece,36:1482--1489.
Parsons T,Stein R,Reasenberg A.1999.Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity:Acomparison betweenlimited-offset ob-lique and major strike-slip faults[J].J Geophys Res,104:20183-20202.
Qin C,Papazachos C,Papadimitriou E.2002.Velocity field for crustal deformation in China derived fromseismic mo-ment tensor summation of earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,359:29--46.
Reasenberg A,Simpson R.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prietaearthquake[J].Science,255:1687--1690.
Replumaz A,Lacassin R,Tapponier P,Leloup P.2001.Large river offsets and Plio-Quaternary dextral slip rate on theRed River Fault(Yunnan,China)[J].J Geophys Res,106:819-836.
Royden L,Burchfiel C,King R,Wang E,Chen Z,Shen F,Liu Y.1997.Surface deformation andlower crustal flowineastern Tibet[J].Science,276:788--790.
Scholz C.2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:439.
Socquet A,Pubbelier M.2005.Cenozoic deformation in western Yunnan(China-Myanmar border)[J].J Asian EarthSci,24:495--515.
Stein R.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605--609.
Steketee J.1958.On Voltera′s dislocations in a semi-infinite elastic medium[J].Can J Phys,36:192--205.
Tang R,Wen D,Deng T,Huang S.1976.Apreliminary study on the characteristics of the ground fractures during theLuhuo earthquakeM=7.9,1973and the origin of the earthquake[J].Acta Geophys Sin,19:17--27(in Chinese).
Tang R,Huang Z,Qian H,Deng T,Jiang L,Ge P,Liu S,Cao Y,Zhang C.1984.On the recent tectonic activity andearthquake of Xianshuihe fault zone[C]∥A Collection of Papers of International Symposium of on ContinentalSeismicity and Earthquake Prediction.Beijing:China Seismological Press:347--363.
Toda S,Stein R,Reasenberg A,Dieterich H,Yoshida A.1998.Stress transferred by the1995MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities[J].J Geophys Res,103:24543--24565.
Wang E,Burchfiel C.2000.Late Cenozoic to Holocene deformationin southwestern Sichuan and adjacent Yunnan,Chinaandits role in formation of the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geophys Res,112:413--423.
Wen X,Yi G,Zhang P,Xu X.2002.Time dependent seismic hazard assessment for the eastern-boundary fault zone ofSichuan-Yunnan Block,China[C]∥Teruyuki Kato,Zheng Sihua eds.Proc.1st China-Japan Workshop on Earth-quake Disaster Mitigation.Japan:Earthquake Research Institute:141--154.
Xu X W,Wen XZ,Zheng RZ,Ma W,Song F,Yu G.2003.Pattern of latest tectonic motion andits dynamics for activeblocks in Sichuan-Yunnan region,China[J].Science in China(Series D),33(Supp.):210--226.
Yang Z X,Waldhauser F,Chen Y T,Richards P.2005.Double difference relocation of earthquakes in central-westernChina[J].J Seismology,9:241--264.
Zhao S,Dingbo C,Xian L,Jusheng X,Gunter S.1999.TheML=7.0Lijiang earthquake,Yunnan,China:An anticipa-ted event[J].J Geodynamics,16:529--546.
Zhou H,Allen C,Kanamori H.1983a.Rupture complexity of the1970Tonghai and1973Luhuo earthquakes,China,from P wave inversion,and relationship to surface faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:1585-1597.
Zhou H,Liu H,Kanamori H.1983b.Source processes of large earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault in southwesternChina[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:537--551.
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