我国地震区划图的初步检验
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摘要
借助GIS的空间操作和空间分析的功能对我国四张地震区划图(1957年发表的中国地震区域划分图、1977年颁布的中国地震烈度区划图、1990年颁布的中国地震烈度区划图和2001年颁布的中国地震动参数区划图)分别用发表以后大陆地区发生的、经震害调查的5级以上浅源地震的等震线与之叠合,统计出相应时段中实际发生的不同烈度区超过区划图上烈度1度、2度或更多的总面积及相应的百分比;根据各个区划图表达的地震危险性定义制定标准检验了相应的可靠程度。通过与相应时段地震人员伤亡、经济损失的对比分析,指出了地震区划方法的进一步改进要把重点放在提高对7级以上大地震可能发生部位的识别上。
Four seismic zoning maps of China respectively published in 1957,1977,1990,and 2001 are inspected in this study.The isoseismals of shallow earthquakes of M ≥5occurring in the mainland of China after the maps were published are overlaid on the maps by means of Geographic Information System(GIS).The total areas with observed intensity of at least 1°larger than the corresponding intensity on the maps are summed.The percentages of areas with positive intensity difference against the entire mainland of China are calculated by the GIS function of special manipulation and analysis.The reliability of each map is tested according to its hazard definition.A key point for improving zoning methods is suggested by recognizing regions with the potential for large earthquakes of M ≥7on the basis of statistics of deaths,injuries,and losses by earthquakes during the four time periods.
Four seismic zoning maps of China respectively published in 1957,1977,1990,and 2001 are inspected in this study.The isoseismals of shallow earthquakes of M ≥5occurring in the mainland of China after the maps were published are overlaid on the maps by means of Geographic Information System(GIS).The total areas with observed intensity of at least 1°larger than the corresponding intensity on the maps are summed.The percentages of areas with positive intensity difference against the entire mainland of China are calculated by the GIS function of special manipulation and analysis.The reliability of each map is tested according to its hazard definition.A key point for improving zoning methods is suggested by recognizing regions with the potential for large earthquakes of M ≥7on the basis of statistics of deaths,injuries,and losses by earthquakes during the four time periods.
引文
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[2]Stein S,R Geller,M Liu.Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck:Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing[J].Seismological Research Letters,2011,82(5):623-626.
[3]Stein S,R Geller,M Liu.Why Earthquake Hazard Maps often Fail and What to Do About it[J].Tectonophysics,2011,562-563:1-25.
[4]Wang Z,James C Cobb.A Critique of Probabilistic Versus Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis with Special Reference to the New Madrid Seismic Zone[J].Geological Society of America(Special Papers),2013,493:259-275.
[5]Kossobokov V G,A K Nekrasova.Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program Maps Are Erroneous[J].Seismic Instruments,2012,48(2):162-170.
[6]Wyss M,A Nekrasova,V Kossobokov.Errors in Expected Human Losses Due to Incorrect Seismic Hazard Estimates[J].Natural Hazard,2012,62(3):927-935.
[7]李善邦.中国地震区域划分圖及其说明[J].地球物理学报,1957,6(2):2-158.LI San-bang.China Earthquake Zonation and Its Description[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1957,6(2):2-158.(in Chinese)
[8]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划工作报告(内部)[M].北京:地震出版社,1981.State Seismological Bureau.Report of Seismic Intensity Zoning of China(Interior)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1981.(in Chinese)
[9]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划(1990)概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.State Seismological Bureau.Outline of Seismic Intensity Zoning of China(1990)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1993.(in Chinese)
[10]陶夏新.京津唐地区地震区划图编制方法的研究[D].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学研究所,1986.TAO Xia-xin.On Method of Seismic Zoning Map of BeijingTianjin-Tangshan Region[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics of China Earthquake Administration,1986.(in Chinese)
[11]中国地震年鉴编辑委员会.中国地震年鉴(1949—1981)[M].中国地震年鉴1982—2007[M].北京:地震出版社,1990,1983,1985,1985,1986,1987,1988,1990,1991,1992,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,1999,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2007,2008,2009.Editorial Committee of China Earthquake Yearbook.China Earthquake Yearbook(1949—1981)[M].China Earthquake Yearbook in 1982—2007[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1990,1983,1985,1985,1986,1987,1988,1990,1991,1992,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2007,2008,2009.(in Chinese)
[12]国家地震科学数据共享中心.http://data.earthquake.cn/index.html.China Earthquake Information Center:http://data.earthquake.cn/Index.html.(in Chinese)
[13]刘白云,袁道阳,陈继锋.玉树MS7.1地震时空破裂过程及与地表破裂带的对应关系[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):23-28.LIU Bai-yun,YUAN Dao-yang,CHEN Ji-feng.Relation Between the Source Rupture Process and Surface Rupture Zone of the MS7.1Yushu Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):23-28.(in Chinese)
[14]秦娟,蔡辉腾,李光,等.重庆及邻区震后烈度分布评估模型构建[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(2):394-400.QIN Juan,CAI Hui-teng,LI Guang,et al.Study on Model Building of Post-earthquake Lntensity in Chongqing and Ite Adjacent Areas[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(2):394-400.(in Chinese)
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