地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析——以紫坪铺水库为例
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摘要
为系统研究水库对附近地区地震活动的影响,提出了一个综合分析地震活动性与水库蓄水引起的应力变化的方法并开发了通用性较强的软件。以紫坪铺水库为例,对水库引起的应力变化与库区附近地震活动性变化的关系进行了详细分析。一方面,定量地分析了水库蓄水过程在附近断层附加的库仑应力变化;另一方面,用紫坪铺水库地震观测台网的地震目录,对包括地震发生频度、能量释放速率、b值、空间相关距离等统计参数的时间演化进行了详细解析。数值计算结果发现,无论是荷重还是孔隙压的扩散都在被认为是汶川大地震发震断层的映秀-北川断层和灌县-江油断层的库区下伏段引起了明显的库仑应力变化。地震活动统计特性的时间演化与主要断层的应力变化之间存在明确的且符合岩石力学破坏准则的相关性。据此,初步认为紫坪铺水库在其蓄水过程中对其地下的龙门山中央断层和山前断层有明显的作用。
To investigate the mechanism of seismicity due to impoundment of a reservoir,we propose a method for integrated study on regional/local seismicity and stress by both surface loading and pore pressure diffusion.As an example,possible role of Zipingpu Reservoir on nearby seismicity was studied in detail.The epicenter of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12 of 2008 is very close to the Zipingpu Reservoir.On one hand,several statistical properties including event rate(n),cumulative energy release(E),seismic b-value in the magnitude-frequency relation,and spatial correlation length(SCL)of earthquakes occurring in Zipingpu area from 2004.8 to 2008.5.11 were estimated in detail.On the other hand,we quantitatively examined change of Coulomb Stress(ΔCFS)due to the impoundment of the reservoir.Both weight loading and pore pressure diffusion resulted in significant ΔCFS on the underlying Yingshu-Beichuan and Guanxian-Mianzhu Faults,which are considered as the source faults of the Wenchuan earthquake.Some clear correlations were verified between the local seismicity and stress change,thus we concluded that the impoundment of Zipingpu Reservoir clearly affected the local seismicity and it is worthwhile to further study if the effect played a role in triggering the Wenchuan earthquake.
To investigate the mechanism of seismicity due to impoundment of a reservoir,we propose a method for integrated study on regional/local seismicity and stress by both surface loading and pore pressure diffusion.As an example,possible role of Zipingpu Reservoir on nearby seismicity was studied in detail.The epicenter of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12 of 2008 is very close to the Zipingpu Reservoir.On one hand,several statistical properties including event rate(n),cumulative energy release(E),seismic b-value in the magnitude-frequency relation,and spatial correlation length(SCL)of earthquakes occurring in Zipingpu area from 2004.8 to 2008.5.11 were estimated in detail.On the other hand,we quantitatively examined change of Coulomb Stress(ΔCFS)due to the impoundment of the reservoir.Both weight loading and pore pressure diffusion resulted in significant ΔCFS on the underlying Yingshu-Beichuan and Guanxian-Mianzhu Faults,which are considered as the source faults of the Wenchuan earthquake.Some clear correlations were verified between the local seismicity and stress change,thus we concluded that the impoundment of Zipingpu Reservoir clearly affected the local seismicity and it is worthwhile to further study if the effect played a role in triggering the Wenchuan earthquake.
引文
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易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun.2004.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemu-he Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(3):322—333.
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
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Aki K,Richards P G.2002.Quantitative Seismology(2nd edition)[M].University Science Books.
Bender B.1983.Maximum likelihood estimation ofbvalues for magnitude grouped data[J].Bulletin of SeismologicalSociety of America,73:831—851.
Bell M L and Nur A.1978.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stress and application to LakeOroville[J].J Geophys Res,83:4469—4483.
Biot M A.1941.General theory of three-dimensional consolidation[J].J Appl Phys,12:155—164.
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Hagiwara Tand Ohtake M.1972.Seismic activity associated with the filling of the reservoirs behind the Kurobe dam,Japan1963-70[J].Tectonophys,15:241—254.
Hainzl S and Ogata Y.2005.Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling[J].JGeophys Res,110.doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.
Helmstetter A and Sornette D.2003.Mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks:Howdo foreshock statisti-cal properties emerge from aftershock laws[J].J Geophys Res,108,doi:10.1029/2002JB001991.
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King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,84:935—953.
Kitagawa Y,Fujimori K,Koizumi K.2007.Temporal change in permeability of the Nojima Fault zone by repeated waterinjection experiments[J].Tectonophysics,443:183—192.
Lei X L,Kusunose K,Rao M V M S,et al.2000.Quasi-static fault growth and cracking in homogeneous brittle rockunder triaxial compression using acoustic emission monitoring[J].J Geophys Res,105(B3):6127—6139.
Lei X L.2006.Typical phases of pre-failure damage in granitic rocks under differential compression[A].In:Cello G&Malamud B D(eds).Fractal Analysis for Natural Hazards.Geological Society,London,Special Publications,261:11—9.
Lei X L and Satoh T.2007.Indicators of critical point behavior prior to rock failure inferred from pre-failure damage[J].Tectonophysics,431:97—111.
Lei X L,Yu G,Ma S,et al.2008.Earthquakes induced by water injection at～3km depth within the Rongchang gas field,Chongqing,China[J].J Geophys Res,113,B10310.doi:10.1029/2008JB005604.
Liu L,Zoback MD.1992.The effect of topography on the state of stress in the crust:Application to the site of the Ca-jon Pass scientific drilling project[J].J Geophys Res,97(B4):5095—5180.
Masuda K,Nishizawa O,Kusunose K,et al.1990.Positive feedback fracture process induced by nonuniform high-pres-sure water flow in dilatant granite[J].J Geophys Res,95(B13):21,583—21,592.
Muco B.1999.Statistical investigation on possible seasonality of seismic activity and rainfall-induced earthquakes inBalkan area[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,114:119—127.
Ogata Y.1992.Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model[J].JGeophys Res,97:845—19,871.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence[J].J Geo-phys Res,106:8729—8744.
Ogata Y.2005.Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the2003Tokachi-Okiearthquake ofM8.0[J].J Geophys Res,110.doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.
Ogata Y,Jones L M,Toda S.2003.When and where the aftershock activity was depressed:Contrasting decay patternsof the proximate large earthquakes in southern California[J].J Geophys Res,108.doi:10.1029/2002JB002009.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,82:2,1018—1040.
Reasenberg P A and Simpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by theLoma Prieta earthquake[J].Science,255:1687—1690.
Rice J R and Cleary MP.1976.Some basic stress diffusion solutions for fluid-saturated elastic porous media with com-pressible constitutes[J].Rev Geophys Space Phys,14:227—291.
Scholz C H.2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge Univ Press,New York.
Scholz C H.1968.The frequency-magnitude relation of microcracking in rock and its relation to earthquakes[J].Bul-letin of Seismological Society of America,58:399—415.
Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S,Wyss M.2005.Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes[J].Nature,437:539—542.
Sornette A and Sornette D.1999.Renormalization of earthquake aftershocks[J].Geophys Res Lett,26:1981—1984.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605—609.
Tyupkin Y S and Giovambattista R D.2005.Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a largeearthquake[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,230:85—96.
Uehara S&Shimamoto T.2007.Permeability of fault rocks from the Median Tectonic Line in Ohshika-Mura,Nagano,Japan as studied by pressure-cycling tests[A].In:Lewis H&Couples G D(eds).The relationship between dam-age and localization.Geological Society,London,Special Publications.289:143—160.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value ofbin a formula logN=a-bMshowing the magnitude-frequencyrelation for earthquakes[J].Geophysical Bulletin,13:99—103(in Japanese).
Wolf L W,Rowe C A,Horner R B.1997.Periodic seismicity near Mt.Ogden on the Alaska-British Columbia border:A case for hydrologically triggered earthquakes?[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,87:6,1473—1483.
Z ller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.2001.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point prior tolarge earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,106:2167—2175.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,等.2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,30(3):597—629.XU Xi-Wei,WEN Xue-Ze,YE Jian-Qing,et al.2008.TheMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake surface ruptures and its seis-mogenic structure[J].Seismology and Geology,30(3):597—629(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun.2004.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemu-he Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(3):322—333.
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1066—1073.ZHANG Pei-Zhen,XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,et al.2008.Slip rates and recurrence intervals of Longmenshan activefault zone and tectonic implications for mechanism of the May12Wenchuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(4):1066—1073(in Chinese).
朱艾斓,徐锡伟,刁桂苓,等.2008.汶川MS8.0地震部分余震重新定位及地震构造初步分析[J].地震地质,30(3):759—767.ZHU Ai-lan,XU Xi-wei,DIAO Gui-ling,et al.2008.Relocation of theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake sequence inpart:preliminary seismotectonic analysis[J].Seismology and Geology,30(3):759—767(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate ofbin the formula logN=a-bMand its confidence[J].Bulletin ofEarthquake Research Institute,University of Tokyo,43:237—239.
Aki K,Richards P G.2002.Quantitative Seismology(2nd edition)[M].University Science Books.
Bender B.1983.Maximum likelihood estimation ofbvalues for magnitude grouped data[J].Bulletin of SeismologicalSociety of America,73:831—851.
Bell M L and Nur A.1978.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stress and application to LakeOroville[J].J Geophys Res,83:4469—4483.
Biot M A.1941.General theory of three-dimensional consolidation[J].J Appl Phys,12:155—164.
Frohlich C,Davis S D.1990.Single-link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate spatial and temporal properties ofearthquakes[J].Geophys J Int,100:19—32.
Guha S K.2000.Induced Earthquakes[M].Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Hagiwara Tand Ohtake M.1972.Seismic activity associated with the filling of the reservoirs behind the Kurobe dam,Japan1963-70[J].Tectonophys,15:241—254.
Hainzl S and Ogata Y.2005.Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling[J].JGeophys Res,110.doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.
Helmstetter A and Sornette D.2003.Mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks:Howdo foreshock statisti-cal properties emerge from aftershock laws[J].J Geophys Res,108,doi:10.1029/2002JB001991.
Huang Y,Wu J,Zhang T,et al.2008.Relocation of theM8.0Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershock sequence[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,51(12):1703—1711.
Jaeger J C and Cook NG W.1979.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics[M].pp.593,3rd ed.,Chapman and Hall,Lon-don.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,84:935—953.
Kitagawa Y,Fujimori K,Koizumi K.2007.Temporal change in permeability of the Nojima Fault zone by repeated waterinjection experiments[J].Tectonophysics,443:183—192.
Lei X L,Kusunose K,Rao M V M S,et al.2000.Quasi-static fault growth and cracking in homogeneous brittle rockunder triaxial compression using acoustic emission monitoring[J].J Geophys Res,105(B3):6127—6139.
Lei X L.2006.Typical phases of pre-failure damage in granitic rocks under differential compression[A].In:Cello G&Malamud B D(eds).Fractal Analysis for Natural Hazards.Geological Society,London,Special Publications,261:11—9.
Lei X L and Satoh T.2007.Indicators of critical point behavior prior to rock failure inferred from pre-failure damage[J].Tectonophysics,431:97—111.
Lei X L,Yu G,Ma S,et al.2008.Earthquakes induced by water injection at～3km depth within the Rongchang gas field,Chongqing,China[J].J Geophys Res,113,B10310.doi:10.1029/2008JB005604.
Liu L,Zoback MD.1992.The effect of topography on the state of stress in the crust:Application to the site of the Ca-jon Pass scientific drilling project[J].J Geophys Res,97(B4):5095—5180.
Masuda K,Nishizawa O,Kusunose K,et al.1990.Positive feedback fracture process induced by nonuniform high-pres-sure water flow in dilatant granite[J].J Geophys Res,95(B13):21,583—21,592.
Muco B.1999.Statistical investigation on possible seasonality of seismic activity and rainfall-induced earthquakes inBalkan area[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,114:119—127.
Ogata Y.1992.Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model[J].JGeophys Res,97:845—19,871.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence[J].J Geo-phys Res,106:8729—8744.
Ogata Y.2005.Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the2003Tokachi-Okiearthquake ofM8.0[J].J Geophys Res,110.doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.
Ogata Y,Jones L M,Toda S.2003.When and where the aftershock activity was depressed:Contrasting decay patternsof the proximate large earthquakes in southern California[J].J Geophys Res,108.doi:10.1029/2002JB002009.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,82:2,1018—1040.
Reasenberg P A and Simpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by theLoma Prieta earthquake[J].Science,255:1687—1690.
Rice J R and Cleary MP.1976.Some basic stress diffusion solutions for fluid-saturated elastic porous media with com-pressible constitutes[J].Rev Geophys Space Phys,14:227—291.
Scholz C H.2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge Univ Press,New York.
Scholz C H.1968.The frequency-magnitude relation of microcracking in rock and its relation to earthquakes[J].Bul-letin of Seismological Society of America,58:399—415.
Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S,Wyss M.2005.Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes[J].Nature,437:539—542.
Sornette A and Sornette D.1999.Renormalization of earthquake aftershocks[J].Geophys Res Lett,26:1981—1984.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605—609.
Tyupkin Y S and Giovambattista R D.2005.Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a largeearthquake[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,230:85—96.
Uehara S&Shimamoto T.2007.Permeability of fault rocks from the Median Tectonic Line in Ohshika-Mura,Nagano,Japan as studied by pressure-cycling tests[A].In:Lewis H&Couples G D(eds).The relationship between dam-age and localization.Geological Society,London,Special Publications.289:143—160.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value ofbin a formula logN=a-bMshowing the magnitude-frequencyrelation for earthquakes[J].Geophysical Bulletin,13:99—103(in Japanese).
Wolf L W,Rowe C A,Horner R B.1997.Periodic seismicity near Mt.Ogden on the Alaska-British Columbia border:A case for hydrologically triggered earthquakes?[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,87:6,1473—1483.
Z ller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.2001.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point prior tolarge earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,106:2167—2175.
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