暴雨型滑坡灾害预报预警方法研究评述
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摘要
滑坡灾害对人类和社会经济的影响已成为仅次于地震的第二大自然灾害。暴雨诱发的滑坡占滑坡总数的90%左右。从滑坡预报方法、暴雨型滑坡灾害时空预报预警、降雨和滑坡机制及稳定性、GIS在滑坡预报中的应用等几方面,分析了国内外动态及发展趋势。分析结果认为,现代数理科学新理论在滑坡预报中的综合应用得到了较快发展;“3S”技术作为滑坡监测预报手段,仍存在没有开发出来的较大潜力;从理论上,机理研究与区域统计研究结合程度有待进一步发展和突破;已建立的滑坡灾害预测预报模型具有很大的地域性、分散性以及由于监测资料不足带来的不稳定性,有必要进行更加系统深入的探讨,尤其要着力建立基于滑坡灾害发生机理的宏观区域预警模型;降雨滑坡关系需有更准确的模型;受降水影响的土体含水量和孔隙水压力的测量方法应更精确、有效;基于WebGIS平台建立区域滑坡灾害实时预警预报系统十分必要。
The impact and damages of landslide hazards on human and social economy have become more and more seriously. Landslide hazards triggered by heavy rainfall take 90% of the total amount. A review on the landslide researches is made, such as, its forecast method, its forecasting and warning, its temporal and spatial distribution, its mechanics induced by heavy rainfall, stability theory, application of GIS. Modern mathematics and physics theories have been comprehensively applied in landslide forecast, which gained quickly development for recent two decades. 3S techniques have been used to monitor and prediction of landslide, but further potential dominance should be developed. Combining degree between mechanism research and regional statistics is dissatisfied,which is necessary to have a breakthrough. Because of its local, dispersed feature and instability due to lacking sufficient data, which should be deeply discussed, the development of regional warning model is therefore emphasized. Survey of water content and pore water pressure in soil body should be more precision and available. Real-time Forecasting and Warning System of landslides based on Web-GIS need to be built for quickly getting data during extremely heavy rainfall.
The impact and damages of landslide hazards on human and social economy have become more and more seriously. Landslide hazards triggered by heavy rainfall take 90% of the total amount. A review on the landslide researches is made, such as, its forecast method, its forecasting and warning, its temporal and spatial distribution, its mechanics induced by heavy rainfall, stability theory, application of GIS. Modern mathematics and physics theories have been comprehensively applied in landslide forecast, which gained quickly development for recent two decades. 3S techniques have been used to monitor and prediction of landslide, but further potential dominance should be developed. Combining degree between mechanism research and regional statistics is dissatisfied,which is necessary to have a breakthrough. Because of its local, dispersed feature and instability due to lacking sufficient data, which should be deeply discussed, the development of regional warning model is therefore emphasized. Survey of water content and pore water pressure in soil body should be more precision and available. Real-time Forecasting and Warning System of landslides based on Web-GIS need to be built for quickly getting data during extremely heavy rainfall.
引文
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2 李媛,孟晖,董颖等.中国地质灾害类型及其特征———基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(2):29～31.
3 InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescednt Societies(1996)WorldDisastersReport1995,pp150.
4 文海家,张永兴,柳源.滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(1):2～15.
5 许强,黄润秋,李秀珍.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展.地球科学进展,2004,19(3):478～483.
6 Saito,M.Forecastingthetimeofoccurrenceofslopefail ure.In:Proceedingsof6thInternationalCongressofSoil MechanicsandFoundationEngineering,Montreal,1965,2:537—541.
7 刘传正,温铭行,唐灿.中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究.地质通报,2004,23(4):303～307.
8 周平根,李媛.滑坡灾害预警准则及预测预报模型方法研究.国土资源大调查项目专题报告,中国地质环境监测院,2002.
9 殷坤龙.滑坡预测预报分类.中国地质灾害防治学报,2003,14(4):13～15.
10 李媛,朱晓冬,杨冰.滑坡泥石流与降雨关系研究动态.典型地区突发性地质灾害时空预警示范区建设进展材料之一,中国地质环境监测院,2002:16～28.
11 李晓.重庆地区的强降雨过程与地质灾害的关系.中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(3):24～32.
12 杜榕恒等.长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究.四川科学技术出版社,1991.
13 杨顺泉.灾发性地质灾害防灾预警系统方案研究.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2002,13(2):110.
14 殷坤龙,张桂荣,龚日祥等.基于Web GIS的浙江省地质灾害实时预警预报系统设计.水文地质工程地质,2003,(3):19～22.
15 谢剑明,刘礼领,殷坤龙等.浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究.地质科技情报,2003,22(4):100～101.
16 林孝松.滑坡与降雨研究.地质灾害与环境保护,2001,12(3):2～7.
17 Brand,E.W.Premchitt,J.Phillipson,H.B.Rela tionshipbetweenrainfallandlandslideinHongkong.Pro ceeding4thInternationalSymposiumLandslides,Toron to,17September1984,1:377—384.
18 MarkE.Reid,andRichardG.Lahusen.Real time MonitoringofActiveLandslidesAlongHighway50,El DoradoCounty.adaptedfrom:CaliforniaGeology,1998,51(3):17—20.
19 周国兵,马力,廖代强.重庆市山体滑坡气象条件等级预报业务系统.应用气象学报,2003,14(1):122～124.
20 单九生,魏丽,刘修奋等.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析.气象,2004,30(1):13～15.
21 王锡稳,陶建红,冯军等.陇南“5.31”特大泥石流灾害成因分析.气象,2003,30(10):43～46.
22 李先华,林珲,陈晓清等.GIS支持下降雨滑坡的启动机制研究与数字仿真.工程地质学报,2001,9(2):133～140.
23 王兰生.斜坡稳定性问题的工程地质分析.三峡库区移民工程地质灾害防治与研究,146～147.
24 戚国庆,黄润秋.土水特征曲线的通用数学模型研究.工程地质学报,2004,12(2):183～185.
2 李媛,孟晖,董颖等.中国地质灾害类型及其特征———基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(2):29～31.
3 InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescednt Societies(1996)WorldDisastersReport1995,pp150.
4 文海家,张永兴,柳源.滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(1):2～15.
5 许强,黄润秋,李秀珍.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展.地球科学进展,2004,19(3):478～483.
6 Saito,M.Forecastingthetimeofoccurrenceofslopefail ure.In:Proceedingsof6thInternationalCongressofSoil MechanicsandFoundationEngineering,Montreal,1965,2:537—541.
7 刘传正,温铭行,唐灿.中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究.地质通报,2004,23(4):303～307.
8 周平根,李媛.滑坡灾害预警准则及预测预报模型方法研究.国土资源大调查项目专题报告,中国地质环境监测院,2002.
9 殷坤龙.滑坡预测预报分类.中国地质灾害防治学报,2003,14(4):13～15.
10 李媛,朱晓冬,杨冰.滑坡泥石流与降雨关系研究动态.典型地区突发性地质灾害时空预警示范区建设进展材料之一,中国地质环境监测院,2002:16～28.
11 李晓.重庆地区的强降雨过程与地质灾害的关系.中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(3):24～32.
12 杜榕恒等.长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究.四川科学技术出版社,1991.
13 杨顺泉.灾发性地质灾害防灾预警系统方案研究.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2002,13(2):110.
14 殷坤龙,张桂荣,龚日祥等.基于Web GIS的浙江省地质灾害实时预警预报系统设计.水文地质工程地质,2003,(3):19～22.
15 谢剑明,刘礼领,殷坤龙等.浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究.地质科技情报,2003,22(4):100～101.
16 林孝松.滑坡与降雨研究.地质灾害与环境保护,2001,12(3):2～7.
17 Brand,E.W.Premchitt,J.Phillipson,H.B.Rela tionshipbetweenrainfallandlandslideinHongkong.Pro ceeding4thInternationalSymposiumLandslides,Toron to,17September1984,1:377—384.
18 MarkE.Reid,andRichardG.Lahusen.Real time MonitoringofActiveLandslidesAlongHighway50,El DoradoCounty.adaptedfrom:CaliforniaGeology,1998,51(3):17—20.
19 周国兵,马力,廖代强.重庆市山体滑坡气象条件等级预报业务系统.应用气象学报,2003,14(1):122～124.
20 单九生,魏丽,刘修奋等.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析.气象,2004,30(1):13～15.
21 王锡稳,陶建红,冯军等.陇南“5.31”特大泥石流灾害成因分析.气象,2003,30(10):43～46.
22 李先华,林珲,陈晓清等.GIS支持下降雨滑坡的启动机制研究与数字仿真.工程地质学报,2001,9(2):133～140.
23 王兰生.斜坡稳定性问题的工程地质分析.三峡库区移民工程地质灾害防治与研究,146～147.
24 戚国庆,黄润秋.土水特征曲线的通用数学模型研究.工程地质学报,2004,12(2):183～185.
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