基于多地震活动参数的首都圈地区地震危险性分析
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摘要
根据首都圈近32年的区域台网地震资料,采用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值组合分析方法,结合首都圈历史及现今地震活动背景,分析首都圈现今地震活动特征,综合判定处于相对高应力和闭锁状态的断裂段。研究结果表明,张渤地震带陆地段各段落的总体b珔值均低于山西地震带各段落的b珔值,反映张渤地震带陆地段总体应力水平高于山西地震带,b珔、n、槡E和a珔/b珔四个参数值的组合特征提示,今后应注意延怀盆地发生中强地震的危险。
With the Seismic catalog from regional seismic network in the last 32 years,we calculated the b value.Based on the spatial distribution of b value and previous studies of fault segmentation,we calculated the multiple seismicity parameter values.Associating with historical and current seismicity background of Capital zone,we analyzed the current seismicity characteristics,and obtained the fault segments that relatively are in high stress and locking phase.The results show that: each segment's value of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault land part is lower than the segments of Shanxi fault zone,which suggest the stress level of Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault land part is higher than the Shanxi fault zone.After analyzing the combination features of the,n,and four parameters,we believed that the future occurrence risk of moderate-strong earthquake in Yan-huai basin should be pay more attention to.
With the Seismic catalog from regional seismic network in the last 32 years,we calculated the b value.Based on the spatial distribution of b value and previous studies of fault segmentation,we calculated the multiple seismicity parameter values.Associating with historical and current seismicity background of Capital zone,we analyzed the current seismicity characteristics,and obtained the fault segments that relatively are in high stress and locking phase.The results show that: each segment's value of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault land part is lower than the segments of Shanxi fault zone,which suggest the stress level of Zhangjiakou-Bohai fault land part is higher than the Shanxi fault zone.After analyzing the combination features of the,n,and four parameters,we believed that the future occurrence risk of moderate-strong earthquake in Yan-huai basin should be pay more attention to.
引文
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[10]岳晓媛,张红旗,武安绪.首都圈地区MS5.0级以上地震前地震活动图像[J].华北地震科学,2011,(2):45-48.
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[15]Urbancic T I,Trifu C I,Long J M,et al..Space-time correlation of b value spatial with stress release[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,1992,139,449-462.
[16]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western UnitedStates,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2000,90:859-869.
[17]闻学泽,胡先明.根据地震活动参数分析石棉—巧家断裂带的现今活动性[J].地震研究,1984,7(2):164-170.
[18]闻学泽.从地震活动参数估计鲜水河断裂带的近期活动[J].地震学报,1986,8(2):146-155.
[2]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities:An improved technique to calculate recurrence times?[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1997,102(B7):15115-15128.
[3]Wyss M,Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.Mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time:San Jacinto-Elsinore fault zones[J].J.Geo-phys.Res.,2000,105(B4):7829-7844.
[4]易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.由地震活动参数分析安宁河—则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,2004a,26(3):294-303.
[5]易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等,由地震活动参数分析龙门山—岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):117-125.
[6]易桂喜,闻学泽.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):254-268.
[7]黄元敏,杨马陵,叶秀薇.多地震活动性参数在粤闽交界及其近海地区的应用[J].华南地震,2011,31(2):71-78.
[8]M7专项工作组.中国大陆大地震中-长期危险性研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2012:1-336.
[9]徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[10]岳晓媛,张红旗,武安绪.首都圈地区MS5.0级以上地震前地震活动图像[J].华北地震科学,2011,(2):45-48.
[11]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[12]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.
[13]Gutenberg R C,Richter F.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1944,34:185-188.
[14]Scholz C H.The frequency-magnitude relation to microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1968,58,399-415.
[15]Urbancic T I,Trifu C I,Long J M,et al..Space-time correlation of b value spatial with stress release[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,1992,139,449-462.
[16]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western UnitedStates,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2000,90:859-869.
[17]闻学泽,胡先明.根据地震活动参数分析石棉—巧家断裂带的现今活动性[J].地震研究,1984,7(2):164-170.
[18]闻学泽.从地震活动参数估计鲜水河断裂带的近期活动[J].地震学报,1986,8(2):146-155.
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