基于模糊综合评判的汶川8.0级地震重灾区滑坡泥石流气候风险评估
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摘要
用1971-2000年的30年逐日降水量资料,按旬统计汶川地震重灾县5-12月各旬的雨日、中雨日、大雨日、暴雨日的平均日数和气候概率,根据地震重灾区实际地质环境条件,降低强降雨强度条件,基于模糊综合评判法,按照最大隶属度原则对汶川特大地震重灾区的39个县进行地质灾害时空气候风险评估。结果表明:重灾区的地质灾害气候风险指数值存在两个高值期间,一个是5月中旬至7月上旬,另一个是8月下旬至9月下旬。而10月下旬至次年4月,重灾区降雨明显减少,绝大部分地区没有地质灾害气候风险;从地域分布来看,高风险区域主要集中在重灾区的西部和中部,风险等级为3～4级(风险较大或很大),东部地区风险等级为1～2级(中等风险或风险较小),但7月下旬高等级风险区位置集中在重灾区的南部和东部。
Based on 30 years' daily precipitation data from 1971 to 2000,the authors statistically calculated the average number of days and climate probability of rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,and rainstorm in 10 days from May to December.Since the condition of Geological environment is poor in the main disaster area,we have lessened strength condition of strong rainfall.Then in virtue of Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation,we have done spatio-temporal and climatic rick assessment of geological hazard on 39 counties in the main disaster area of Wenchuan area,based on maximum membership principle.The results show that there are the two high climatic risk index values in main disaster area,one is from mid-May to early July,and another is from late August to late September.In addition,from late October to April of the next year,rainfall declined seriously in main disaster area,of which most part did not have climatic disaster.In terms of geographical distribution,high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the west and central of main disaster area,where the risk level is 3～4(high risk or great risk);well,the risk level of eastern part is 1～2(moderate risk or little risk).However,in late July high-risk area focused on southern and eastern part.
Based on 30 years' daily precipitation data from 1971 to 2000,the authors statistically calculated the average number of days and climate probability of rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,and rainstorm in 10 days from May to December.Since the condition of Geological environment is poor in the main disaster area,we have lessened strength condition of strong rainfall.Then in virtue of Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation,we have done spatio-temporal and climatic rick assessment of geological hazard on 39 counties in the main disaster area of Wenchuan area,based on maximum membership principle.The results show that there are the two high climatic risk index values in main disaster area,one is from mid-May to early July,and another is from late August to late September.In addition,from late October to April of the next year,rainfall declined seriously in main disaster area,of which most part did not have climatic disaster.In terms of geographical distribution,high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the west and central of main disaster area,where the risk level is 3～4(high risk or great risk);well,the risk level of eastern part is 1～2(moderate risk or little risk).However,in late July high-risk area focused on southern and eastern part.
引文
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[3]彭贵芬,段旭,舒康宁,等.应用KDD技术分析气象地质灾害降水的关系[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):252-257.
[4]彭贵芬.云南地质灾害危险等级PP-ES预报方法[J].气象科技,2006,34(6):745-749.
[5]郭虎,熊亚军,扈海波.北京市奥运期间气象灾害风险承受与控制能力分析[J].气象,2008,34(2):77-82.
[6]牛叔超,朱桂林,刘月辉.致洪大暴雨的风险评估及气象效益[J].气象科技,2000,26(1):32-35.
[7]冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2001,29(1):27-30.
[8]王志,赵琳娜,张国平,等.汶川地震灾区堰塞湖流域面雨量计算方法研究[J].气象,2010,36(6):7-12.
[9]杨马陵,沈繁銮,陈大庆,等.地震预测预警等级风险评估与分区分级发布方案的研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(4):1-4,10.
[10]焦雪,冯民学,王尧钧,等.雷电灾害风险评估系统开发与应用[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):72-76.
[11]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007:37-57.
[12]黄崇富.自然灾害风险评价-理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
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