大气电场异常判别及预报效能的统计检验
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摘要
依据郝建国等提出的异常判别规则对大气电场的原始观测资料重新进行了异常判别和分组， 并依据朱成熹等提出的效率值法，分别对监测到的异常及实际上报的异常与地震预报的相关进行了统计检验及评分，信度在 １５％ 以下，该方法通过了假设检验。结果表明，这一方法用于地震预报是有统计依据的
In this paper, the original data of atmospheric electric field is classified according to the anomaly criteria given by Hao Jianguo and others, then the statistical test is carried out for the correlation between the earthquake events and the observed corresponding anomalies and the correlation between the predicted earthquakes and the actual events, and finally the prediction evaluation is made according to Zhu's method. When the creditability is 15%, the method passes the statistical test, and it is proved that the method is reasonable for the earthquake prediction.
In this paper, the original data of atmospheric electric field is classified according to the anomaly criteria given by Hao Jianguo and others, then the statistical test is carried out for the correlation between the earthquake events and the observed corresponding anomalies and the correlation between the predicted earthquakes and the actual events, and finally the prediction evaluation is made according to Zhu's method. When the creditability is 15%, the method passes the statistical test, and it is proved that the method is reasonable for the earthquake prediction.
引文
1 郝建国.近地表大气电场异常与地震.地震学报,1988,10(2):206～212
2 郝建国,柳松.大气电场观测研究在近场地震短临预报中的应用.中国地震,1990,12(3):87～91
3 朱成熹,郑兴树,朱令人.预报手段效率值的研究.地震学报,1992,14(3):296～303
4 郝建国,唐天明,李德瑞.一种地震短临前兆:震前大气电场异常研究.地震学报,1998,20(1):101～108
2 郝建国,柳松.大气电场观测研究在近场地震短临预报中的应用.中国地震,1990,12(3):87～91
3 朱成熹,郑兴树,朱令人.预报手段效率值的研究.地震学报,1992,14(3):296～303
4 郝建国,唐天明,李德瑞.一种地震短临前兆:震前大气电场异常研究.地震学报,1998,20(1):101～108
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