河南“75.8”大暴雨的中尺度集合预报试验
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摘要
发生在河南的"75.8"特大暴雨是我国历史上影响最大、受灾程度最严重的一次灾害性天气过程,其造成的人员伤亡与唐山地震相当,造成的经济损失近百亿元,我国气象学家对此展开过大量的研究,其可预报性问题一直都受关注。尝试采用近年来在预报理论与实践中提出的中尺度集合预报技术,以GRAPES中尺度有限区模式作为试验模式工具,针对此次过程展开两组试验。试验1主要着眼于对暴雨有较大影响的积云对流参数化方案,分别从对流激发和大尺度环境场相互作用的角度出发,对其中一些经验性参数在合理取值范围内给予调整,使其在一定程度上表征模式的不确定性,来构建集合成员。试验结果表明:对流参数化方案中不同的参数对降水的影响作用各不相同,空间上对于降水落区的影响不是很大,但是对降水强度的改善却很明显,集合平均对强暴雨中心的体现有积极作用,平均后的暴雨区最大降水量预报为90mm/24h,比"确定性"预报(控制试验)值70mm/24h改善了约30%,最佳的单个成员的暴雨区最大降水量预报值(120mm/24h)比控制试验预报(70mm/24h)提高了70%;时间上看,不同的参数会影响到积云对流的激发,使得降水发生的时间有所不同,进而影响后续降水的发展。试验2利用模式不同分辨率和不同物理参数化方案的组合来构造集合成员,进行中尺度集合预报试验,试验结果表明:简单的集合平均能在一定程度上改善降水强度,与高分辨率模式预报结果比较,暴雨中心降水量约提高了20%~30%。可见:集合预报能在一定程度上减弱模式不确定性的影响;对流参数化方案和经验性参数的差异、模式分辨率的差异确实对模拟结果有一定的影响。
"75.8" heavy rain is a disaster,which caused a large loss to the society.Many meteorologists have done a lot of research works of this event,and paid much attention to the predictability."75.8"heavy rain in Henan Province was particularly chosen for the study of the mesoscale ensemble forecast.Two experiments were implemented.The first one especially focused on the relations between cumulus convective parameterizations and the heavy rain.For this purpose,the Kain-Fristch ETA scheme was chosen.The interaction between the trigger function and the mass flux calculations in large scale environment was taken into consideration.Some empirical factors have been perturbed in a reasonable range to construct the ensemble members to describe the uncertainty of model.The results indicate that different factors in cumulus convective parameterization have different impacts on the precipitation.The location of the rainfall is less influenced by different factors,but the intensity of the heavy rain is improved,the precipitation forecasted by ensemble mean increased by 30%.Meanwhile,different factors would have different impacts on the time when the convection happens,the rainy duration as well as the development of convection.The second experiment adopted different resolution of model and multi-parameterization to form ensemble members.The results prove that the ensemble mean would improve the intensity forecast to some extent.Compared with the results coming from model with high resolution,the precipitation forecasted by ensemble increases by 20%-30%.Ensemble forecast would decrease the uncertainties from the model itself.The differences among various cumulus convective parameterizations,empirical factors and model resolutions indeed have a certain impacts on the simulated results of model.
"75.8" heavy rain is a disaster,which caused a large loss to the society.Many meteorologists have done a lot of research works of this event,and paid much attention to the predictability."75.8"heavy rain in Henan Province was particularly chosen for the study of the mesoscale ensemble forecast.Two experiments were implemented.The first one especially focused on the relations between cumulus convective parameterizations and the heavy rain.For this purpose,the Kain-Fristch ETA scheme was chosen.The interaction between the trigger function and the mass flux calculations in large scale environment was taken into consideration.Some empirical factors have been perturbed in a reasonable range to construct the ensemble members to describe the uncertainty of model.The results indicate that different factors in cumulus convective parameterization have different impacts on the precipitation.The location of the rainfall is less influenced by different factors,but the intensity of the heavy rain is improved,the precipitation forecasted by ensemble mean increased by 30%.Meanwhile,different factors would have different impacts on the time when the convection happens,the rainy duration as well as the development of convection.The second experiment adopted different resolution of model and multi-parameterization to form ensemble members.The results prove that the ensemble mean would improve the intensity forecast to some extent.Compared with the results coming from model with high resolution,the precipitation forecasted by ensemble increases by 20%-30%.Ensemble forecast would decrease the uncertainties from the model itself.The differences among various cumulus convective parameterizations,empirical factors and model resolutions indeed have a certain impacts on the simulated results of model.
引文
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[15]顾建峰.不同深对流参数化方案在降水预报中的比较试验[J].气象,1999,25(4):39-44.
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[17]伍红雨,陈德辉,徐国强.不同物理过程参数化方案对贵州降水预报的敏感性试验[J].气象,2007,33(4):23-28.
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[24]Roebber P J,D M.Schultz,B A.Colle et al.FORE-CAST’S FORUM Towards i mproved prediction:High-resolution and ensemble modelingsystemin oper-ations[J].Weather and Forecasting.2004,19:936-949.
[25]Mass C F.David Ovens,Ken Westrick et al,Doesin-creasing horizontal resolution produce more skillfulforecasts[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.2002,83:407-430.
[26]Du J.Hybrid Ensemble Prediction System:A NewEnsemble Approach,2004.[C]Symposium on the50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical WeatherPrediction.
[27]陈静.中尺度暴雨短期集合预报研究[M].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2003年.
[28]谭燕,陈德辉.基于非静力模式物理扰动的中尺度集合预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):396-406.
[29]王晨稀.短期集合降水概率预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(1):78-88.
[30]牛震宇,张立凤.基于集合预报思想对一次暴雨过程的数值模拟[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,7(1):73-79.
[2]南方周末.2005年8月25日第1124期.
[3]丁一汇,蔡则怡,李吉顺.1975年8月上旬河南特大暴雨的研究[J].大气科学,1978,2(4):276-289.
[4]758暴雨会战北京组.758河南特大暴雨的动力分析[J].气象学报,1979,37:(4)45-55.
[5]赵思雄,周晓平.风场在预报暴雨发生中的作用——1975年8月上旬特大暴雨的数值试验[J].大气科学,1984,8(1):1-6.
[6]蔡则怡,宇如聪.LASG-η坐标有限区域数值预报模式对一次登陆台风特大暴雨的数值试验[J].大气科学,1997,21(04):460-471.
[7]http://www.hnqx.cn/758/index.jsp.
[8]Kain Jone S.The Kain-Fritsch Convective Paramateri-zation:An Update,2004[J].Journal of Applied Me-teorology.2004,43:170-181.
[9]Brooks,H.E.,M.S.Tracton,D.J.Stensrud,etal.Short-range ensemble forecasting:Report from aworkshop,25-27 July 1994[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1995,76:1617-1624.
[10]Harrison.M.S.Analysis and model dependciesin medium-range forecast:twotransplant case studies[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.1999,126:711-724.
[11]Hou,D.,Kalnay,E.and Droegemier,K.K..Objec-tive verification of the SAMEX’98 ensemble forecasts[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,2001,129:73-91.
[12]Alberto Arribas.Results of an initial stochastic physicsscheme for the Met Office Unified Model[R].Ex-eter:Forecasting Research Technical Report No.452,2004.
[13]张大林.各种非绝热物理过程在中尺度模式中的作用[J].大气科学,1998,22(4):548-561.
[14]陈静.物理过程参数化方案对中尺度暴雨数值模拟影响的研究[J].气象学报,2003,61(2):203-218.
[15]顾建峰.不同深对流参数化方案在降水预报中的比较试验[J].气象,1999,25(4):39-44.
[16]段旭,王曼,刘建宇,等.低纬高原地区MM5v3不同参数化方案降水模拟试验[J].气象,2006,32(4):16-23.
[17]伍红雨,陈德辉,徐国强.不同物理过程参数化方案对贵州降水预报的敏感性试验[J].气象,2007,33(4):23-28.
[18]Houtekamer,P.L.,Lefaivre,L.,Derome,J.,et al.ASystemsi mulation approach to ensemble prediction[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,1996,124:1225-1242.
[19]Personal Communication with Dr Martin Charron.
[20]Epstein,E S.Stochastic dynamic prediction[J].Tel-lus,1969,21:739-759.
[21]Houtekamer,P.L.,and Derome J.Methods for en-semble prediction[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,1995,123:2181-2196.
[22]Du J,Mullen S.L,and Sanders F.Short-Range En-semble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.1997,125:2427-2459.
[23]Mullen,S.L and R.Buizza.The I mpact of Horizon-tal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Fore-casts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Pre-diction System[J].Weather and Forecasting.2002,17:173-191.
[24]Roebber P J,D M.Schultz,B A.Colle et al.FORE-CAST’S FORUM Towards i mproved prediction:High-resolution and ensemble modelingsystemin oper-ations[J].Weather and Forecasting.2004,19:936-949.
[25]Mass C F.David Ovens,Ken Westrick et al,Doesin-creasing horizontal resolution produce more skillfulforecasts[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.2002,83:407-430.
[26]Du J.Hybrid Ensemble Prediction System:A NewEnsemble Approach,2004.[C]Symposium on the50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical WeatherPrediction.
[27]陈静.中尺度暴雨短期集合预报研究[M].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2003年.
[28]谭燕,陈德辉.基于非静力模式物理扰动的中尺度集合预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):396-406.
[29]王晨稀.短期集合降水概率预报试验[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(1):78-88.
[30]牛震宇,张立凤.基于集合预报思想对一次暴雨过程的数值模拟[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,7(1):73-79.
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