汶川地震后中国及邻区地震活动趋势——地震能量释放特征的“振荡类比”研究
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摘要
根据欧亚地震带东段地质构造和地震活动特征,选取中国及邻区地震区域,对1897—2008年发生的824次震级Ms≥6.0地震的年度释放能量进行滤波和系统分析.结果显示,地震能量释放特征表现为周期性衰减振荡.通过振荡特征分析和计算,从理论上预测中国及邻区长期和中短期强震活动形势.计算结果表明,所选区域内大陆板块地震活跃时间应持续153.7a,如果从1897年开始,即到2050年结束.这一理论结果与中国两千多年历史地震资料分析结论一致,也为我国的地震活跃期持续150a左右提供了理论依据.同时,根据地震活动周期性特征进行初步预测检验,进而从理论上预测了未来中短期地震活动趋势.
According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone,China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions,where earthquakes of Ms≥6. 0 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008. The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy,we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium-and short-term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 153. 7 a,namely,1897—2050. Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a,and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity,we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012,furthermore,the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021,and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently,the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050.
According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone,China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions,where earthquakes of Ms≥6. 0 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008. The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy,we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium-and short-term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 153. 7 a,namely,1897—2050. Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a,and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity,we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012,furthermore,the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021,and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently,the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050.
引文
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[2]Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,Yao Z X2008Chin.J.Geophys.511403
[3]Zhang Z,Wang Y,Chen Y,Houseman G A,Tian X,Wang E,Teng J2009Geophys.Res.Lett.3617310
[4]Hubbard J,Shaw J H2009Nature458194
[5]Guo L Q,Li Y X,Hu X K,Liu X2009Chin.J.Geophys.52531(in Chinese)[郭良迁、李延兴、胡新康、刘峡2009地球物理学报52531]
[6]Wang Y P,Ma J,Li C Y2007Seismology and Geology291(in Chinese)[汪一鹏、马瑾、李传友2007地震地質291]
[7]Xu J R,Zhao Z X,Ishikawa Y2008Chin.J.Geophys.51770(in Chinese)[徐纪人、赵志新、石川有三2008地球物理学报51770]
[8]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E2008Nature454509
[9]Fu Z X,Ding X,Wang X Q2006Earthquake2635(in Chinese)[傅征祥、丁香、王晓青2006地震2635]
[10]Chen X Z2007Earthquake2741(in Chinese)[陈学忠2007地震2741]
[11]Su N Q2003Inland Earthquake17190(in Chinese)[苏乃秦2003内陆地震17190]
[12]Deng Q D,Zhang Y M,Xu G L,Fan F T1979Seismology and Geology111(in Chinese)[邓起东、张裕明、许桂林、范福田1979地震地质111]
[13]Shi Z L,Huan W L,Lu S D1982Sci.China B12840(inChinese)[时振梁、环文林、卢寿德1982中国科学B12840]
[14]Shi Z L,Zhao R G,Wang S Z,Wang J X1986World Earthquake Catalog(1900—1980,Ms≥6.0)(Beijing:Cartographic Publishing House)pp236—269(in Chinese)[时振梁、赵荣国、王淑贞、王敬贤1986世界地震目录(1900—1980,Ms≥6.0)(北京:地图出版社)第236—269页]
[15]Gu G X1983China Earthquake Catalog(B.C.1831—1979)(Beijing:Science Press)(in Chinese)[顾功叙1983中国地震目录(北京:科学出版社)]
[16]Ganse R A,Nelson J B1988BC2000—1979Global Great Earthquake Catalog(Beijing:Seismology Press(in Chinese))[甘斯R A、纳尔逊J B1988公元前2000年—公元1979年全球重大地震目录(中译本)(北京:地震出版社)]
[17]Zhu C Z1990The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland(Beijing:Seismology Press)pp63—77(in Chinese)[朱传镇1990中国地震大形势预测研究(北京:地震出版社)第63—77页]
[18]Wang L M1990The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland(Beijing:Seismology Press)pp114—124(in Chinese)[汪良谋1990中国地震大形势预测研究(北京:地震出版社)第114—124页]
[19]Lu Z Y1990The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland(Beijing:Seismology Press)pp34—49(in Chinese)[陆忠远1990中国地震大形势预测研究(北京:地震出版社)第34—49页]
[20]Li S J2007J.Geomech.1325(in Chinese)[李述靖2007地质力学学报1325]
[21]Cui Z W,Wang K X,Hu H S,Sun J G2007Chin.Phys.B16746
[22]Liu J X,Cui Z W,Wang K X2007Chin.Phys.B162180
[23]Du Q Z,Liu L L,Sun J B2007Acta Phys.Sin.566143(in Chinese)[杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波2007物理学报566143]
[24]Li H X,Tao C H2009Acta Phys.Sin.582836(in Chinese)[李红星、陶春辉2009物理学报582836]
[25]Du Q Z,Yang H Z2004Acta Phys.Sin.532801(in Chinese)[杜启振、杨慧珠2004物理学报532801]
[26]Ding J H1993In1994on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study(Beijing:Seismology Press)pp1—63(in Chinese)[丁鉴海19931994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社)第1—63页]
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