8级大震的预测研究讨论
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摘要
两个8级地震的预测在某种程度上被验证了。一个是 2001 年11月14 日昆仑山口西 8.1 级大震,另一个是 2003年9 月27日中蒙俄交界处的7.9 级地震(矩震级为 8级)。基于月球最北直下点的引潮力触发效应和8级大震的三性法分析,我们预测在2005～2008年间,西藏南部和附近地区可能再次发生 8级大震。
The predictions of two great earthquakes with magnitude of 8 have been vitrified in some sense. One is the earthquake(Ms=8.1)in the west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass on November14, 2001, and the other is the one(Ms=7.9, Mw=8) in the bordering region of Russia, Mongolia and China on September27, 2003. Based on the relation between earthquake activity and the tidal-force-trigger-effect in the northern most point beneath the moon and the triplet method analysis on the temporal distribution of great earthquake in the studied region, we predict that another great earthquake(Ms≈8) will be possible to occur in the south part of Tibet and its vicinity during the period between 2005～2008.
The predictions of two great earthquakes with magnitude of 8 have been vitrified in some sense. One is the earthquake(Ms=8.1)in the west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass on November14, 2001, and the other is the one(Ms=7.9, Mw=8) in the bordering region of Russia, Mongolia and China on September27, 2003. Based on the relation between earthquake activity and the tidal-force-trigger-effect in the northern most point beneath the moon and the triplet method analysis on the temporal distribution of great earthquake in the studied region, we predict that another great earthquake(Ms≈8) will be possible to occur in the south part of Tibet and its vicinity during the period between 2005～2008.
引文
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[2]郭增建,吴瑾冰.海原大震的历史意义及大震减灾对策的讨论——纪念海原地震80周年[J].国际地震动态.2000(12),1～4
[3]郭增建.太阳活动与发震断层走向[J].西北地震学报.2001,23(4),P369
[4]郭安宁.青藏高原及其边缘地区大震发生时间的可公度性[M].青藏高原地震文集.西宁:青海人民出版社,1986,146～149
[5]郭增建,韩延本,吴瑾冰.对2001年11月14日新疆青海交界8.1级大震预测的反思[J].国际地震动态,2001(12),6～7
[6]郭增建,张晓东,吴瑾冰.东北深震区——8级大震的穴位[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4),289～293
[7]郭增建,吴瑾冰.8级大震讨论[J].华北地震科学.2002,20(4),19～22
[8]郭安宁,陈家超.中国大震问题[M].北京:地震出版 社,2002
[9]V.Keilis-Borok,Ll.knopoff andG.R.Allen,Bursts of seism city asLong-Term precursors of strong earthquake,Journal of geophysicalResearchVol.85,No.B2,803～811,1980
[10]郭增建.影响西部建设的特大地震灾害问题讨论.科技进步与西部优势产业发展——中国西部地区科技进步与经济发展论坛专集(六).中国科协、中国工程院、贵州省人民政府编.四川科技出版社,2003,127～130
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