基于影响因素分布模型的滑坡稳定性敏感分析
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摘要
提出了基于影响因素分布模型的滑坡稳定性敏感分析方法,该法用于分析影响因素在整个定义域内对滑坡稳定性的敏感程度,以滑坡影响因素为子序列,以其稳定性系数为目标序列,根据子序列的累积分布函数求影响因素区间概率函数,与目标序列差值乘积加和得到敏感性综合决策值。以三峡库区奉节县太山庙滑坡为例,经类比统计得到滑带土抗剪强度参数的分布函数,通过经验分析得到地震水平加速度和库水位变化的分布函数,应用该法计算得到影响因素中对滑坡稳定性最敏感的因素。以内摩擦角为例,分析了影响因素方差与滑坡稳定性敏感分析结果的关系。
The sensitivity analysis method of landslide stability based on models of influencing factors is conducted to analyze sensitivities of influencing factors in their definition domains.This method regards influencing factors as sub-sequences,the corresponding safety factors as target-sequences.The area probability functions of influencing factors,which are calculated by cumulative distribution functions of sub-sequences,product with difference values of target-sequences respectively;then,results that are produced by those two values are summed to get decision values of sensitivity.With this method,taking Taishanmiao landslide for example,which is located at Fengjie county in the Three-Gorges reservoir.Based on the distribution functions of shear strength factors by analogy and statistics and the ones of maximum horizontal acceleration of earthquake and water level fluctuations by empirical analysis,the most sensitive factor among all influencing factors is obtained.Finally,the relation between the sonsitivity of landslide stability and variances of influencing factors is analyzed on basis of internal friction angle.
The sensitivity analysis method of landslide stability based on models of influencing factors is conducted to analyze sensitivities of influencing factors in their definition domains.This method regards influencing factors as sub-sequences,the corresponding safety factors as target-sequences.The area probability functions of influencing factors,which are calculated by cumulative distribution functions of sub-sequences,product with difference values of target-sequences respectively;then,results that are produced by those two values are summed to get decision values of sensitivity.With this method,taking Taishanmiao landslide for example,which is located at Fengjie county in the Three-Gorges reservoir.Based on the distribution functions of shear strength factors by analogy and statistics and the ones of maximum horizontal acceleration of earthquake and water level fluctuations by empirical analysis,the most sensitive factor among all influencing factors is obtained.Finally,the relation between the sonsitivity of landslide stability and variances of influencing factors is analyzed on basis of internal friction angle.
引文
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[2]汪洋,殷坤龙,安关峰.滑坡敏感因子的灰色关联分析[J].岩土力学,2004,25(1):91-93.WANG Yang,YIN Kon-long,AN Guan-feng.Greycorrelation analysis of sensitive factors of landslide[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2004,25(1):91-93.
[3]夏元友,熊海丰.边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性人工神经网络分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(16):2703-2 707.XIA Yuan-you,XIONG Hai-feng.Sensibility Analysis ofslope stability based on artificial neural network[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(16):2 703-2 707.
[4]杨和雄,王良元.敏感性分析及其模糊方法[J].南京邮电学院学报,1998,18(1):99-108.YANG He-xiong,WANG Liang-Yuan.Sensitivityanalysis and its fuzzy method[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Posts and Telecommunications,1998,18(1):99-108.
[5]徐建平,胡厚田,张安松,等.边坡岩体物理力学参数的统计特征研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1999,18(4):382-386.XU Jian-ping,HU Hou-tian,Zhang An-song,et al.Onstatistical characteristics of physical and mechanicalparameters in slope rockmass[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1999,18(4):382-386.
[6]周春梅,殷坤龙,罗冲.锚拉桩应用于水库库岸滑坡治理的关键问题探讨[J].岩土力学,2005,26(3):450-460.ZHOU Chun-mei,YIN Kun-long,LUO Chong.A studyon some key questions of cable-anchored piles oflandslides in reservoir shore lines[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2005,26(3):450-460.
[7]张社荣,贾世军,郭怀志.岩石边坡稳定的可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,1999,20(2):57-66.ZHANG She-rong,JIA Shi-jun,GUO Huai-zhi.Thesusceptibility analysis of reliability for the probabilitydistribution types of parameters in strength criterion[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,1999,20(2):57-66.
[8]罗冲,殷坤龙,陈丽霞,等.万州区滑坡滑带土抗剪强度参数概率分布拟合及其优化[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(9):1 588-1 593.LUO Chong,YIN Kun-long,CHEN Li-xia,et al.Probability distribution fitting and optimization of shearstrength parameters in sliding zone alonghorizontal-stratum landslides in Wanzhou city[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(9):1 588-1 593.
[9]蔡克霞,张莉娟.地震时最大地面水平加速度分布参数的确定方法[J].兰州理工大学学报,2004,30(1):73-75.CAI Ke-xia,ZHANG Li-juan.A approach to determinedistribution parameters of maximum horizontalacceleration of ground surface during earthquakes[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2004,30(1):73-75.
[10]国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社,1999,392-400.
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