一种综合统计方法——地震学参数异常总量分析
|
摘要
提出一种综合性的统计方法,地震学参数异常总量方法,该方法选取的研究区具有较好映震能力,并且具有明确物理意义的地震活动性参数,通过所选参数的异常总量进行统计分析,研究未来地震趋势估计。对研究区发生的14个震例分析发现,参数总量异常对研究区中强地震具有较好的对应关系,大震前常常出现明显的高值异常。分析认为,地震参数总量异常是一个综合性的地震趋势判断的中期指标,对未来的大震形势判断具有一定的参考意义,通过对研究区不同分区的参数异常总量进行分析,对未来大震地点判断有一定的参考意义。
In this paper,a comprehensive statistical method for analysis the total abnormity of seismological parameters is presented.Seismicity parameters with good ability of reflecting earthquake were selected in the study area.The future trends in earthquake were studied by making statistical analysis of the selected parameters of the total abnormity.14 earthquake cases in the study area show that parameters of the total abnormity have a fine correspond with the mid-strong earthquake in the study area.High value occurs in the total abnormity of parameters before the strong shock happening.The analysis shows that total abnormity of seismic parameters is a medium index predicting the trends of the earthquake.It has some reference value to estimate the situation of the future strong earthquake.It has some reference value to estimate the location where strong earthquake occurs,based on analyzing the total abnormity of the parameters in different proportion of the study area.
In this paper,a comprehensive statistical method for analysis the total abnormity of seismological parameters is presented.Seismicity parameters with good ability of reflecting earthquake were selected in the study area.The future trends in earthquake were studied by making statistical analysis of the selected parameters of the total abnormity.14 earthquake cases in the study area show that parameters of the total abnormity have a fine correspond with the mid-strong earthquake in the study area.High value occurs in the total abnormity of parameters before the strong shock happening.The analysis shows that total abnormity of seismic parameters is a medium index predicting the trends of the earthquake.It has some reference value to estimate the situation of the future strong earthquake.It has some reference value to estimate the location where strong earthquake occurs,based on analyzing the total abnormity of the parameters in different proportion of the study area.
引文
黄耘,李清河,孙业君,等.江苏及邻区地壳上地幔结构研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(4) :369-376．
黄耘,李清河,张元生,等.江苏及邻区地震重新定位和构造特征分析[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(1) :175-185．
梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.华北地区强震活动长期演变过程的共性//地震短临预报的理论与方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997．
孙业君,冯志生,黄耘,等.基于构造的测震学参数在鲁东-黄海地块的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(2) :9-14．
王炜,戴维乐,等.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,1994,10(3) .
王炜,等.地震空间集中度C值及其在地震预报中的应用//地震预报实用化研究文集[M].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989．
王炜,刘震华.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,1987,9(2) .
黄耘,李清河,张元生,等.江苏及邻区地震重新定位和构造特征分析[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(1) :175-185．
梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.华北地区强震活动长期演变过程的共性//地震短临预报的理论与方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997．
孙业君,冯志生,黄耘,等.基于构造的测震学参数在鲁东-黄海地块的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(2) :9-14．
王炜,戴维乐,等.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,1994,10(3) .
王炜,等.地震空间集中度C值及其在地震预报中的应用//地震预报实用化研究文集[M].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989．
王炜,刘震华.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,1987,9(2) .
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心