多模式对四川一次强降水过程不确定性预报分析
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摘要
本文就2008年"5.12"四川大地震后,5月25~26日四川盆地出现的一次强降水过程,比较分析成都区域中心运行的3个区域(GRAPES、AREM和MM5)模式降水预报情况以及各模式预报的物理量场和大气状况的演变,得到:模式就不同起报时间,对同一时间段的降水预报效果是不一样的,初始场获取的大气信息对预报有着重要作用;模式预报的降水落区与物理量的垂直时间演变密切相关;各模式大气初始场差异及随时间演变决定了各模式降水预报差异。
A strong precipitation process happened from 25 to 26 May,2008 after the "5.12" great earthquake has been analysed on its evolution of precipitations,physical fields and atmospheric conditions through the three regional models running in ChengDu region meterological center.The results show that precipitation predictions effect are different in the same time for the same model at different integral beginning time.Atmospheric information obtained from initial fields has an important impact on prediction.There is a close relation between simulated precipitation area and the vertical time evolution of physical fields.The difference of initial fields and its evolution with time decides the difference of precipitation prediction for various models.
A strong precipitation process happened from 25 to 26 May,2008 after the "5.12" great earthquake has been analysed on its evolution of precipitations,physical fields and atmospheric conditions through the three regional models running in ChengDu region meterological center.The results show that precipitation predictions effect are different in the same time for the same model at different integral beginning time.Atmospheric information obtained from initial fields has an important impact on prediction.There is a close relation between simulated precipitation area and the vertical time evolution of physical fields.The difference of initial fields and its evolution with time decides the difference of precipitation prediction for various models.
引文
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[2]顾建峰,王晓峰,王坚捍,等.上海3KM数值预报系统数据传输与产品制作[J].南京气象学院学报,2004,27(1):90-96
[3]程麟生,冯伍虎.“98.7”突发大暴雨及中尺度低涡结构的分析和数值模拟[J].大气科学,2001,25(4):465-478
[4]宇如聪,薛纪善,徐幼平,等.AREMS中尺度暴雨数值预报模式系统[M].北京:气象出版社,2004
[5]何光碧,陈静,李川,等.低涡与急流对“04.9”川东暴雨影响的分析与数值模拟[J].高原气象,2005,24(6):1012-1023
[6]何光碧.高原东侧陡峭地形对一次盆地中尺度涡旋及暴雨的数值试验[J].高原气象,2006,25(3):428-441
[7]王建捷,周斌,郭肖容.不同对流参数化方案试验中凝结加热的特征及对暴雨中尺度模拟结果的影响[J].气象学报,63(4):405-417
[8]顾建峰.不同深对流参数化方案在降水预报中的比较试验[J].气象,1999,25(4):41-53
[9]何光碧,曹杰.不同对流参数化方案和初值场组合对两次四川暴雨影响的数值模拟[J].高原气象,2008,27(4):787-795
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