大地形变资料用于地震预测的回顾与思考
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摘要
对在大地测量学科用于地震预报及相关研究方面所了解的一些进展和历程进行了简要回顾和总结。其中包括1975年海城地震、1976年唐山地震、1989年大同地震、1996年丽江地震、2001年昆仑山口西地震、2005年乌什地震和2004年底的印尼8.7级特大地震等多次强烈破坏性地震及其观测到的形变异常现象和所做的预测研究成果,显示大地测量,特别是空间大地测量的发展对地震预测研究产生了明显的促进作用,对多学科开展联合攻关研究及地震监测预报的宏观决策有一定的参考和指导意义。
Brief review and summarization on the development and recent history concerning the application of geodetic data to earthquake prediction have been given based on authors' understanding.Some research results of crust deformational anomalies and predictions related with strong earthquakes are given in the paper.It includes Haicheng earthquake in 1975,Tangshan earthquake in 1976,Datong earthquake in 1989,Lijiang earthquake in 1996,West to Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001,Xinjiang Wushi earthquake in 2005,and the Indonesia great earthquake with MS8.7 occurred at the end of 2004.The results show that the geodesy,especially the development of satellite techniques on earth survey,has promoted the earthquake prediction research obviously.Moreover,those results have significant values of reference and guidance for further study with multi-subjects and the decision-making about earthquake monitoring and prediction.
Brief review and summarization on the development and recent history concerning the application of geodetic data to earthquake prediction have been given based on authors' understanding.Some research results of crust deformational anomalies and predictions related with strong earthquakes are given in the paper.It includes Haicheng earthquake in 1975,Tangshan earthquake in 1976,Datong earthquake in 1989,Lijiang earthquake in 1996,West to Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001,Xinjiang Wushi earthquake in 2005,and the Indonesia great earthquake with MS8.7 occurred at the end of 2004.The results show that the geodesy,especially the development of satellite techniques on earth survey,has promoted the earthquake prediction research obviously.Moreover,those results have significant values of reference and guidance for further study with multi-subjects and the decision-making about earthquake monitoring and prediction.
引文
[1]薄万举,杨国华,郭良迁,等.地壳形变与地震预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[2]薄万举,郭良迁.地质构造与大地形变的综合研究[A].刘连柱.减灾论坛[C].香港:欧亚经济出版社,2000.13-22.
[3]薄万举,章思亚,刘广余,等.新疆乌什6.2级地震的中期预测[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(1):26-30.
[4]薄万举,刘广余,郭良迁,等.印尼洋8.7级特大地震后川滇地区地震活动性趋势判定[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):1-6.
[5]中国地震局.中国大地形变测量成果表(1~11册)[M].北京:测绘出版社,1984.
[6]张祖胜.利用大地形变测量资料估计我国大陆地区几十年的地震趋势[A].国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震大形势预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1990.68-79.
[7]应绍奋,沈永坚,黄立人,等.中国大陆形变场特征及中长期地震危险期划分[A].国家地震局科技发展司.中国大陆2005年前强震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.13-17.
[8]Wanju Bo,Yanxing Li,Guohua Yang,et al.Crustal Deformation State Shown by Fault Measure-ment and GPS[J].Journal of Seismology,2000,4(3):259-266.
[9]Bo Wanju,Guo Liangqian,Dong Guiying,et al.A Seismogenic Pattern Akin to“Dam Bursting”[J].Journal Geological Sociaty of India.2003,(61):549-556.
[10]李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):65-80.
[11]江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1地震前区域构造变形背景[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):163-172.
[12]李延兴.GPS技术研究新进展[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1996.
①中央地震工作小组办公室地震测量队,华北部分地区地壳形变与地震,1970年。
①薄万举等.大地形变异常场分析、中长期前兆预测方法及其应用研究,1999年。
①中国地震局第一监测中心,2005年地震趋势研究报告,2005年。
[2]薄万举,郭良迁.地质构造与大地形变的综合研究[A].刘连柱.减灾论坛[C].香港:欧亚经济出版社,2000.13-22.
[3]薄万举,章思亚,刘广余,等.新疆乌什6.2级地震的中期预测[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(1):26-30.
[4]薄万举,刘广余,郭良迁,等.印尼洋8.7级特大地震后川滇地区地震活动性趋势判定[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):1-6.
[5]中国地震局.中国大地形变测量成果表(1~11册)[M].北京:测绘出版社,1984.
[6]张祖胜.利用大地形变测量资料估计我国大陆地区几十年的地震趋势[A].国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震大形势预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1990.68-79.
[7]应绍奋,沈永坚,黄立人,等.中国大陆形变场特征及中长期地震危险期划分[A].国家地震局科技发展司.中国大陆2005年前强震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.13-17.
[8]Wanju Bo,Yanxing Li,Guohua Yang,et al.Crustal Deformation State Shown by Fault Measure-ment and GPS[J].Journal of Seismology,2000,4(3):259-266.
[9]Bo Wanju,Guo Liangqian,Dong Guiying,et al.A Seismogenic Pattern Akin to“Dam Bursting”[J].Journal Geological Sociaty of India.2003,(61):549-556.
[10]李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):65-80.
[11]江在森,张希,祝意青,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1地震前区域构造变形背景[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):163-172.
[12]李延兴.GPS技术研究新进展[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1996.
①中央地震工作小组办公室地震测量队,华北部分地区地壳形变与地震,1970年。
①薄万举等.大地形变异常场分析、中长期前兆预测方法及其应用研究,1999年。
①中国地震局第一监测中心,2005年地震趋势研究报告,2005年。
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