新疆强震成组活动与前兆异常的演化特征
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摘要
对新疆近几年来强震成组活动和地震前兆场的动态演化图像进行追踪分析 ,进一步探讨了前兆异常群体演化与 1996— 1998年新疆成组地震的关系。结果表明 ,在成组强震孕育过程中 ,全新疆年度趋势预测定点前兆异常群体演化特征明显。自 1993年开始 ,全新疆异常比例逐年增加 ,1996年度为 38% ,在强震连发的 1997年度全新疆异常比例达最高值 4 7%。在前兆异常群体中期演化过程中 ,1996年 1月开始 ,出现较为密集的转折性短临异常变化 ,到 1996年 3月爆发了强震成组活动。目前 ,全新疆异常比例达低值 ,地震活动也表现出相对平静。结合这种演化特征 ,分析了新疆乌恰地区和北天山西段 2个地震危险区近期地震危险性。
By tracing and analyzing the grouped strong earthquake activity and the dynamic evolution pattern of the earthquake precursor field in recent years in Xinjiang, the relation between the colonial evolution of precursor anomalies and 1996 1998 grouped earthquakes in Xinjiang was discussed. The result indicates the precursor anomalies observed at fixed stations in Xinjiang showed obvious colonial evolution feature. Since 1993 the proportion of the earthquake anomalies in Xinjiang has been increasing year by year. In 1996 the proportion was 30%, and to the 1997 in which the strong shocks occurred continuously, it is high to 47%. In the medium term of colonial evolution of precursor anomalies, there had been intensive short term and impending earthquake anomalies appearing (from Jan. 1996), and in Mar. 1996 occurred grouped strong earthquake activity. At present, the proportion of the anomalies in Xinjiang has come to a low value, meanwhile, the seismic activity is also relatively calm. Combined with this anomaly evolution feature, the recent seismic risks in two seismic risk regions of Wuqia and the west of Tianshan in Xinjiang were analyzed.
By tracing and analyzing the grouped strong earthquake activity and the dynamic evolution pattern of the earthquake precursor field in recent years in Xinjiang, the relation between the colonial evolution of precursor anomalies and 1996 1998 grouped earthquakes in Xinjiang was discussed. The result indicates the precursor anomalies observed at fixed stations in Xinjiang showed obvious colonial evolution feature. Since 1993 the proportion of the earthquake anomalies in Xinjiang has been increasing year by year. In 1996 the proportion was 30%, and to the 1997 in which the strong shocks occurred continuously, it is high to 47%. In the medium term of colonial evolution of precursor anomalies, there had been intensive short term and impending earthquake anomalies appearing (from Jan. 1996), and in Mar. 1996 occurred grouped strong earthquake activity. At present, the proportion of the anomalies in Xinjiang has come to a low value, meanwhile, the seismic activity is also relatively calm. Combined with this anomaly evolution feature, the recent seismic risks in two seismic risk regions of Wuqia and the west of Tianshan in Xinjiang were analyzed.
引文
[1]刘蒲雄.华北成串强震整体孕育过程的探讨[J].地震科学研究,1983,(4):30—37.
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[7]张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙,等.构造块体成组孕育模型和前兆场某些特征[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):1—10.
[8]谢华章,田建明,黄耘,等.华东地区中短期地震前兆的区域特征[J].地震,2000,20(增刊):169—174
[2]高国英,韩月鹏.新疆及其邻区强震活动与趋势预测[J].内陆地震,1995,9(4):357—362.
[3]郭良迁.对中国大陆地壳水平变形的初步探讨[J].中国地震,2000,16(2):126—133.
[4]吴云,帅平,周硕愚,等.用GPS观测结果对中国大陆及邻区现今地壳运动和形变的初步探讨[J].地震学报,1999,21(5):545—553.
[5]陈兵,江在森,赵振才.中国西部断层形变趋势异常特征与地震活动关系研究[J].中国地震,2000,16(1):77—85.
[6]张国民,耿鲁明,石耀霖.中国大陆强震轮回的计算机模型研究[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):20—32.
[7]张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙,等.构造块体成组孕育模型和前兆场某些特征[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):1—10.
[8]谢华章,田建明,黄耘,等.华东地区中短期地震前兆的区域特征[J].地震,2000,20(增刊):169—174
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