R值在华东地区地震预测中的研究
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摘要
利用华东地区1970年以来的地震目录,对华东地区、郯庐断裂带100km范围、2007年度划定为地震危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区及安徽地区,以地震活动性参数群体异常变化项目数为参量,进行相应的均值之差与标准差统计分析,提取其变化率R(李永莉等,2003),即通过统计计算地震活动性参数异常项目月变化率R值,观察R值变化特征。结果发现,华东地区、安徽地区中强震前R值异常表现为中短期异常特征,郯庐断裂带100km范围内及本年度划定为危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区,R值异常表现为中长期异常特征。
Using the earthquake catalogue of East China since 1970,we analyze the mean value and standard deviation of the anomaly item numbers of the seismic parameters to get the R value to count monthly variety ratio of anomaly items of seismic parameters.We found that,the R value shows mid-long term anomaly before medium-strong earthquake in East China and Anhui area,but mid-long term anomaly in the 100 kilometers area around the Tanlu fault and the joint area of Jiangsu,Shandong,Anhui Provinces which was delimited as earthquake danger zone this year.
Using the earthquake catalogue of East China since 1970,we analyze the mean value and standard deviation of the anomaly item numbers of the seismic parameters to get the R value to count monthly variety ratio of anomaly items of seismic parameters.We found that,the R value shows mid-long term anomaly before medium-strong earthquake in East China and Anhui area,but mid-long term anomaly in the 100 kilometers area around the Tanlu fault and the joint area of Jiangsu,Shandong,Anhui Provinces which was delimited as earthquake danger zone this year.
引文
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陈宇卫,张军,黄显良等.2005.华北块体中等地震活动平静特征[J].地震地磁观测与研究,26:11～17
韩渭宾,杜芳,易桂喜等.1999.四川地区中短期前兆识别、指标体系、预报方法及效能评价研究[J].四川地震,90(1):2～24
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