基于GIS的概率比率模型的滑坡易发性评价
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摘要
以中国1∶50万区域环境地质调查(以地质灾害为主)、700个县(市)地质灾害调查与区划调查等(成果)资料为基础,选取地形起伏度、地貌类型、工程地质岩组、地震动峰值加速度、年平均降雨量、土地利用程度综合指数6个评价因子,采用概率比率模型,1 km×1 km评价单元,计算得到全国滑坡易发性评价指数图,并验证了结果的可靠性。进行了易发程度分区,最终得到高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区4个分区,完成了全国滑坡易发程度分区图。研究表明,概率比率模型方法可以客观、定量地评价滑坡易发性,适用于大区域易发性评价。
On the basis of the 1∶500000 regional environgeology survey in China with emphasis on geological hazards and the geological hazard and regionalization investigation conducted in 700 counties/cities nationwide,we utilized the 1 km×1 km probability ratio model to deliver the Landslide Proneness Exponent Diagram of China with 6 evaluation factors including terrain roughness,geomorphy,engineering geological petrofabric,seismic motion,climate and land-use types.According to landslide susceptibilities,the high-,medium-,low-and no-risk zones are delineated and shown in the resultant China Landslide Proneness Zoning Map.The result reliabilities have been examined in this study,which indicates that the probability ratio model is effective in evaluating the large-scale landslide proneness quantitatively and objectively.
On the basis of the 1∶500000 regional environgeology survey in China with emphasis on geological hazards and the geological hazard and regionalization investigation conducted in 700 counties/cities nationwide,we utilized the 1 km×1 km probability ratio model to deliver the Landslide Proneness Exponent Diagram of China with 6 evaluation factors including terrain roughness,geomorphy,engineering geological petrofabric,seismic motion,climate and land-use types.According to landslide susceptibilities,the high-,medium-,low-and no-risk zones are delineated and shown in the resultant China Landslide Proneness Zoning Map.The result reliabilities have been examined in this study,which indicates that the probability ratio model is effective in evaluating the large-scale landslide proneness quantitatively and objectively.
引文
[1]Wu S R,Shi J S,Zhang C S,et al.Preli minary discussion ontechnical guideline for geohazard risk assessment[J].Geolog-ical Bulletin of China,2009,28(8):995-1005(in Chinese).
[2]Liu C Z,Li T F,Cheng L P,et al.A method by to analysefour parameters for assessment and early warning on the re-gional geo-hazards[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geolo-gy,2004,31(4):1-8(in Chinese).
[3]Zhang C S,Zhang Y C,Zhang L H.Danger assessment ofcollapses,landslides and debris flows of geological hazards inChina[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2004,10(1):27-32(inChinese).
[4]Zhu L F,Wu X C,Yin K L,et al.Risk zonation of landslidein China based on information content model[J].Journal ofEarth Sciences and Environment,2004,26(3):53-56(inChinese).
[5]Jiang X Z.Application of GIS to the assessment of surfacescollapse hazardsin China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2003,24(5):469-474(in Chinese).
[6]Meng H,Hu S E,Zhao J C.National study of geological dis-aster-prone areas[M]∥China Institute of Geological Environ-mental Monitoring.National Geological Disaster PreventionPlanning.Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2008:103-132(in Chinese).
[7]Lee S,Talib J A.Probabilistic landslide susceptibility andfactor effect analysis[J].Environmental Geology,2005,47:982-990.
[8]Zhao J H,Chen H L,Yang S F.Comparison of models forhazard assessment of landslide[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,2006,15(1):128-134(in Chinese).
[9]Lee S,Pradhan B.Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor,Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models[J].Landslides,2007(4):33-41.
[10]Lee S,Min K.Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibilityat Yongin,Korea[J].Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[11]Yao Y Z,Ren QZ,Li R F,et al.Application of analytic hi-erarchay process in probability assessment of mountain disas-ters:A case study of Lingyuan Region,Liaoning Province[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2010,37(2):130-134(in Chinese).
[12]Chu X D,Zhou WB,Su W.Regional geological hazard sus-ceptibility zoning[J].Geotechnical Engineering World,2009,12(11):54-56(in Chinese).
[13]Guo F F,Yang N,Meng H,et al.Application of the reliefamplitude and slope analysis to regional landslide hazard as-sessments[J].Geology in China,2008,35(1):131-143(inChinese).
[14]Gao Z Q,Liu J Y,Zhuang D F.The research of Chineseland-use/land-cover present situations[J].Journal of RemoteSensing,1999,3(2):134-138(in Chinese).
[1]吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):995-1005.
[2]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8.
[3]张春山,张业成,张立海.中国崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性评价[J].地质力学学报,2004,10(1):27-32.
[4]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):53-56.
[5]蒋小珍.基于GIS技术的全国地面塌陷灾害危险性评价[J].地球学报,2003,24(5):469-474.
[6]孟晖,胡树娥,赵继昌.全国地质灾害易发区研究[M]∥中国地质环境监测院.全国地质灾害防治规划研究.北京:地质出版社,2008:103-132.
[8]赵建华,陈汉林,杨树锋.滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):128-134.
[11]姚玉增,任群智,李仁峰,等.层次分析法在山地地质灾害危险性评价中的应用:以辽宁凌源地区为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(2):130-134.
[12]储小东,周文斌,苏玮.区域地质灾害易发程度区划研究:以九江县为例[J].岩土工程界,2009,12(11):54-56.
[13]郭芳芳,杨农,孟晖,等.地形起伏度和坡度分析在区域滑坡灾害评价中的应用[J].中国地质,2008,35(1):131-143.
[14]高志强,刘纪远,庄大方.基于遥感和GIS的中国土地利用/土地覆盖的现状研究[J].遥感学报,1999,3(2):134-138.
①数据来源:土地利用和年均降雨量数据由国家科学数据共享工程——地球系统科学数据共享网提供,网址为http:∥www.geodata.cn.
[2]Liu C Z,Li T F,Cheng L P,et al.A method by to analysefour parameters for assessment and early warning on the re-gional geo-hazards[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geolo-gy,2004,31(4):1-8(in Chinese).
[3]Zhang C S,Zhang Y C,Zhang L H.Danger assessment ofcollapses,landslides and debris flows of geological hazards inChina[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2004,10(1):27-32(inChinese).
[4]Zhu L F,Wu X C,Yin K L,et al.Risk zonation of landslidein China based on information content model[J].Journal ofEarth Sciences and Environment,2004,26(3):53-56(inChinese).
[5]Jiang X Z.Application of GIS to the assessment of surfacescollapse hazardsin China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2003,24(5):469-474(in Chinese).
[6]Meng H,Hu S E,Zhao J C.National study of geological dis-aster-prone areas[M]∥China Institute of Geological Environ-mental Monitoring.National Geological Disaster PreventionPlanning.Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2008:103-132(in Chinese).
[7]Lee S,Talib J A.Probabilistic landslide susceptibility andfactor effect analysis[J].Environmental Geology,2005,47:982-990.
[8]Zhao J H,Chen H L,Yang S F.Comparison of models forhazard assessment of landslide[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,2006,15(1):128-134(in Chinese).
[9]Lee S,Pradhan B.Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor,Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models[J].Landslides,2007(4):33-41.
[10]Lee S,Min K.Statistical analysis of landslide susceptibilityat Yongin,Korea[J].Environmental Geology,2001,40:1095-1113.
[11]Yao Y Z,Ren QZ,Li R F,et al.Application of analytic hi-erarchay process in probability assessment of mountain disas-ters:A case study of Lingyuan Region,Liaoning Province[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2010,37(2):130-134(in Chinese).
[12]Chu X D,Zhou WB,Su W.Regional geological hazard sus-ceptibility zoning[J].Geotechnical Engineering World,2009,12(11):54-56(in Chinese).
[13]Guo F F,Yang N,Meng H,et al.Application of the reliefamplitude and slope analysis to regional landslide hazard as-sessments[J].Geology in China,2008,35(1):131-143(inChinese).
[14]Gao Z Q,Liu J Y,Zhuang D F.The research of Chineseland-use/land-cover present situations[J].Journal of RemoteSensing,1999,3(2):134-138(in Chinese).
[1]吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):995-1005.
[2]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8.
[3]张春山,张业成,张立海.中国崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性评价[J].地质力学学报,2004,10(1):27-32.
[4]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):53-56.
[5]蒋小珍.基于GIS技术的全国地面塌陷灾害危险性评价[J].地球学报,2003,24(5):469-474.
[6]孟晖,胡树娥,赵继昌.全国地质灾害易发区研究[M]∥中国地质环境监测院.全国地质灾害防治规划研究.北京:地质出版社,2008:103-132.
[8]赵建华,陈汉林,杨树锋.滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):128-134.
[11]姚玉增,任群智,李仁峰,等.层次分析法在山地地质灾害危险性评价中的应用:以辽宁凌源地区为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(2):130-134.
[12]储小东,周文斌,苏玮.区域地质灾害易发程度区划研究:以九江县为例[J].岩土工程界,2009,12(11):54-56.
[13]郭芳芳,杨农,孟晖,等.地形起伏度和坡度分析在区域滑坡灾害评价中的应用[J].中国地质,2008,35(1):131-143.
[14]高志强,刘纪远,庄大方.基于遥感和GIS的中国土地利用/土地覆盖的现状研究[J].遥感学报,1999,3(2):134-138.
①数据来源:土地利用和年均降雨量数据由国家科学数据共享工程——地球系统科学数据共享网提供,网址为http:∥www.geodata.cn.
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