可公度信息系在强震预报中的应用
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摘要
可公度信息系作为信息预测方法中的一种,主要用来研究物理体系中的特性,其难点在于可公度性数据的提取．采用可公度性作模进行数据划分,依据不同的频数值来提取数据．应用可公度信息性和信息有序性2种方法研究中国大陆8级以上地震和美国加利福尼亚州7级以上地震,得到相同预测值．研究结果表明,中国大陆8级以上地震序列和美国加利福尼亚州7级以上地震序列是有规律的．
As a method of the information forecasting, commensurability information system was mainly ap-plied to studying system characteristics. The difficulty of commensurability information system is the pick-up of commensurable data. This paper adopted the commensurability as module for data partition, and extracted data by the different frequency. According to the commensurability and time order, the M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California. The two methods reached the same goal by different routes. The results show that the series of M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California are in a sense rather than fully stochastic.
As a method of the information forecasting, commensurability information system was mainly ap-plied to studying system characteristics. The difficulty of commensurability information system is the pick-up of commensurable data. This paper adopted the commensurability as module for data partition, and extracted data by the different frequency. According to the commensurability and time order, the M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California. The two methods reached the same goal by different routes. The results show that the series of M≥8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland and M≥7 earthquakes in California are in a sense rather than fully stochastic.
引文
[1]翁文波．预测论基础[M]．北京:石油工业出版社,1984:51-56．
[2]翁文波．预测学[M]．北京:石油工业出版社,1996:20-24．
[3]夏雅琴,苏成,李均之．中国大陆8级以上地震的时空有序性分析[J]．科学研究月刊,2006,21:16-18．XIA Ya-qin,SU Cheng,LI Jun-zhi．Analysis on time and spatial order of earthquakes above magnitude 8 in the continent of China[J]．Scientific Research Monthly,2006,21:16-18．(in Chinese)
[4]耿庆国．可公度性是自然界的一种秩序[c]//中国天灾信息预测研究进展．北京:石油工业出版社,2004:71-76．GENG Qing-guo．Commensurability is a kind of order in natural[C]//The Research of the Informative Visitation of Provi- dence Prediction in China．Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:71-76．(in Chinese)
[5]徐道一．1303年山西洪洞8级大地震的时间有序性特征[J]．山西地震,2003(3):34-36．XU Dao-yi．Characteristics on time order of the 1303 Hongtong,Shanxi,strong earthquake of M≥8[J]．Earthquake Re- search in Shanxi,2003(3):34-36．(in Chinese)
[6]何崇君．中国大陆8级地震的空间关联特征及复发周期探讨[J]．灾害学,2004,19(3):86-91．HE Chong-jun．Discussion on spatial correlation of earthquakes with magnitude 8 in the continent of China and the recurrence interval[J]．Journal of Catasirophology,2004,19(3):86-91．(in Chinese)
[7]门可佩．关于昆仑山8.1级大震时空有序性初探[J]．地球物理学进展,2002,17(1):145-147．MEN Ke-pei．Preliminary research on the space and time order of the 2001 Kunlunshan Mountain large earthquake with M 8.1[J]．Progress in Geophysics,2002,17(1):145-147．(in Chinese)
[8]徐道一,黄建发,王湘南．中国大陆8级地震的有序性——一种新的预测方法[J]．地震地质,1991,13(3):231-240．XU Dao-yi,HUANG Jian-fa,WANG Xiang-nan．Temporal orderliness of earthquakes(M≥8)on China mainland——a new approach to the prediction of earthquakes[J]．Seismology and Geology,1991,13(3):231-240．(in Chinese)
[2]翁文波．预测学[M]．北京:石油工业出版社,1996:20-24．
[3]夏雅琴,苏成,李均之．中国大陆8级以上地震的时空有序性分析[J]．科学研究月刊,2006,21:16-18．XIA Ya-qin,SU Cheng,LI Jun-zhi．Analysis on time and spatial order of earthquakes above magnitude 8 in the continent of China[J]．Scientific Research Monthly,2006,21:16-18．(in Chinese)
[4]耿庆国．可公度性是自然界的一种秩序[c]//中国天灾信息预测研究进展．北京:石油工业出版社,2004:71-76．GENG Qing-guo．Commensurability is a kind of order in natural[C]//The Research of the Informative Visitation of Provi- dence Prediction in China．Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:71-76．(in Chinese)
[5]徐道一．1303年山西洪洞8级大地震的时间有序性特征[J]．山西地震,2003(3):34-36．XU Dao-yi．Characteristics on time order of the 1303 Hongtong,Shanxi,strong earthquake of M≥8[J]．Earthquake Re- search in Shanxi,2003(3):34-36．(in Chinese)
[6]何崇君．中国大陆8级地震的空间关联特征及复发周期探讨[J]．灾害学,2004,19(3):86-91．HE Chong-jun．Discussion on spatial correlation of earthquakes with magnitude 8 in the continent of China and the recurrence interval[J]．Journal of Catasirophology,2004,19(3):86-91．(in Chinese)
[7]门可佩．关于昆仑山8.1级大震时空有序性初探[J]．地球物理学进展,2002,17(1):145-147．MEN Ke-pei．Preliminary research on the space and time order of the 2001 Kunlunshan Mountain large earthquake with M 8.1[J]．Progress in Geophysics,2002,17(1):145-147．(in Chinese)
[8]徐道一,黄建发,王湘南．中国大陆8级地震的有序性——一种新的预测方法[J]．地震地质,1991,13(3):231-240．XU Dao-yi,HUANG Jian-fa,WANG Xiang-nan．Temporal orderliness of earthquakes(M≥8)on China mainland——a new approach to the prediction of earthquakes[J]．Seismology and Geology,1991,13(3):231-240．(in Chinese)
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