发扬李四光地震预报的科学思想
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摘要
李四光教授关于地震地质工作中地震预报方面的重要观点和思想主要包括:地应力变化与地震密切相关;地震活动带中也存在相对安全的地区("安全岛"理论);地震地质调查是地震预报的基础;地震是可以预测的,地应力的变化过程是地震预报的关键。他的"安全岛"理论及地震预报思想至今仍有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
Some useful viewpoints on earthquake forecasting,based on Prof.Li Siguang's important speeches and instructions,are presented in this paper in combination with authors' own experience and understanding.Those can be summarized in the four aspects as follows.The existence and change of earth stress has close relation with earthquake.Relatively safe areas may occur in active earthquake zones.Earthquake survey must be the basis of earthquake forecasting.Earthquake is predictable and the change process of earth stress is the key for earthquake forecasting.Professor Li Siguang's theory of "Safe Island" and the thought on earthquake forecast is of great significance both theoretically and realistically,which are the precious assets he left to us and worthy of further consideration,research and implementation so far.
Some useful viewpoints on earthquake forecasting,based on Prof.Li Siguang's important speeches and instructions,are presented in this paper in combination with authors' own experience and understanding.Those can be summarized in the four aspects as follows.The existence and change of earth stress has close relation with earthquake.Relatively safe areas may occur in active earthquake zones.Earthquake survey must be the basis of earthquake forecasting.Earthquake is predictable and the change process of earth stress is the key for earthquake forecasting.Professor Li Siguang's theory of "Safe Island" and the thought on earthquake forecast is of great significance both theoretically and realistically,which are the precious assets he left to us and worthy of further consideration,research and implementation so far.
引文
[1]李四光.地震地质[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:38.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:38.
[2]李四光.地震地质:与地质力学研究所参加西南地震地质工作同志的谈话[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:22.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Talks with the comrades joining southwestern seismogeological work in the Institute ofGeomechanics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:22.
[3]李四光.地震地质:关于地震地质工作的谈话[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:28.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Talks about seismogeological work[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:28.
[4]李四光.地震地质:地震是可以预报的[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:31.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Earthquake is predictable[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:31.
[5]李四光.地震地质:谈地震地质队的方向和任务[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:41.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:The orientation and task of seismogeological team[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:41.
[6]马胜云,马兰.李四光年谱[M].北京:地质出版社,1999:1～321.MA Sheng-yun,MA Lan.Chronological life of LI Si-guang[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1999:1～321.
[7]李四光.地震地质:与中国科学院地震体改小组的座谈记要[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:37.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Discussion summary about seismogeological organizational reforms in Chinese Academy ofScience[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:37.
[8]李方全.李四光同志二三事:李四光纪念文集[M].北京:地质出版社,1981:89～92.LI Fang-quan.Anecdotes of LI Si-guang:Essays in memory of LI Si-guang[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1981:89～92.
①李四光同志关于地质工作方面的一些意见(一):谈地应力测量仪器试制等问题(一九六八年一月十二日).北京:中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,1974:187.
[2]李四光.地震地质:与地质力学研究所参加西南地震地质工作同志的谈话[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:22.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Talks with the comrades joining southwestern seismogeological work in the Institute ofGeomechanics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:22.
[3]李四光.地震地质:关于地震地质工作的谈话[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:28.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Talks about seismogeological work[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:28.
[4]李四光.地震地质:地震是可以预报的[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:31.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Earthquake is predictable[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:31.
[5]李四光.地震地质:谈地震地质队的方向和任务[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:41.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:The orientation and task of seismogeological team[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:41.
[6]马胜云,马兰.李四光年谱[M].北京:地质出版社,1999:1～321.MA Sheng-yun,MA Lan.Chronological life of LI Si-guang[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1999:1～321.
[7]李四光.地震地质:与中国科学院地震体改小组的座谈记要[M].北京:科学出版社,1973:37.LI Si-guang.Seismogeology:Discussion summary about seismogeological organizational reforms in Chinese Academy ofScience[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973:37.
[8]李方全.李四光同志二三事:李四光纪念文集[M].北京:地质出版社,1981:89～92.LI Fang-quan.Anecdotes of LI Si-guang:Essays in memory of LI Si-guang[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1981:89～92.
①李四光同志关于地质工作方面的一些意见(一):谈地应力测量仪器试制等问题(一九六八年一月十二日).北京:中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,1974:187.
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