基于SOM网络的厄尔尼诺事件预测
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摘要
本文依据厄尔尼诺事件发生的三个重要成因,应用SOM神经网络,采用1976年至1990年的日食条件、地震次数、海温矩平数据,建立基于SOM网络的厄尔尼诺事件预测模型,对1996年至2000年厄尔尼诺事件预测,准确率较高.
Based on the three causes of EL Nino events,this work uses the SOM neural network to build up the SOM network EL Nino event forecast model in terms of the number of earthquake,condition of solar-eclipse and average of sea-temperature during 1976 to 1990.Then we use this model to forecast the EL Nino event during 1996 to 2000.The accuracy rate is fairly high.
Based on the three causes of EL Nino events,this work uses the SOM neural network to build up the SOM network EL Nino event forecast model in terms of the number of earthquake,condition of solar-eclipse and average of sea-temperature during 1976 to 1990.Then we use this model to forecast the EL Nino event during 1996 to 2000.The accuracy rate is fairly high.
引文
[1] 杨学祥.厄尔尼诺现象的构造基础与激发因素[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4) :367～370． Yang X X. Tectonic basis and excitation condition of El Nino [J]. North Western Seismological Journal, 2002, 24 (4) :367～370．
[2] 占志明.厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件及其对南中国海和华南地区的气候异常影响.硕士论文,中山大学,2001． Zhan Z M. The El Nino and La Nina Events, and influence to climatic anomalies of the South China Sea and the Southren China. Essays of Master, Zhongshan University, 2001．
[3] 林振山,赵佩章,赵文桐.日食-厄尔尼诺系数及其应用[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(6) :732～737． Lin Z S, Zhao P Z, Zhao W T. The solar eclipse-nino coefficients and its application [J ]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 1999, 42(6) : 732～737．
[4] Kohonen T. Self-organized formation of topologically correct feature maps [J]. Biological Cybernetics, 1982, 43: 59～69． Kohonen T. Self-OOrganizing maps, 2nd edition [M]. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997．
[5] Kohonen T. Self-Organizing maps, 2nd edition [M], Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997.
[6] 刘敦文,徐国元,黄仁东,等.一种基于神经网络的探地雷达信号解释研究[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(1) :179～182． Liu D W, Xu G Y, Huang R D, et al. Study on a signal interpretation of GPR based on BP neural network [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2004,19(1) : 179～ 182．
[7] 徐海浪,吴小平.电阻率二维神经网络反演[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(2) :584～589． Xu H L, Wu X P. 2-D resistivity inversion using the neural network method [J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),2006, 49(2) : 584～589．
[8] 曹思远,梁春生.储层预测中BP神经网络的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(1) :84～90． Cao S Y, Liang C S. The application of BP neural network in reservoir prediction[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2002,17(1) : 84～90．
[9] 林红波,李月,马海涛,等.混沌噪声背景下检测微弱信号的神经网络方法分析[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(4) :743～747． Lin H B, Li Y, Ma H T, et al. Analysis of neural network method for chaos-based weak harmonic signal detection[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2003,18(4) :743～747．
[10] 张小浩,周鼎武.径向基函数方法在南泥湾油田勘探中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(1) :213～217． Zhang X H, Zhou D W. Application of radial basis function in nan niwan oil field [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007,22(1) :213～217．
[11] 杨立强,王志章,熊琦华.复杂岩性储层参数评价中神经网络技术的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(1) :44～48． Yang L Q, Wang Z Z, Xiong Q H. Application of neural network in logging interpretation[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2003,18(1) :44～48．
[12] 郑庆生,韩大匡.高阶神经网络在储层分布参数[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :552～555． Zheng Q S, Han D K. Estimation of reservoir distribution parameters using higher order neural network spproach[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007,22 (2) : 552 ～ 555．
[13] 邱颖,孟庆武,李悌,等.神经网络用于岩性及岩相预测的可行性分析[J].地球物理学进展,2001,16(3) :76～84． Qiu Y, Meng Q W, Li T, et al. The feasibility analysis of neural network in the prediction of lithology and lithofacles [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2001,16(3) : 76～84．
[14] 丁柱,杨长春,陶宏根,等.神经网络反演双侧向电阻率测井曲线的物理约束[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(2) :331～336． Ding Z, Yang C C, Tao H G, et al. Physical restriction on model selection of neural network in dual-lateral log inversion [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2002, 17 (2) : 331～336．
[15] 贾小龙,李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(6) :1238～1249． Jia X L, Li C Y. Dipole oscillation in the Southern Indian Ocean and its impacts on climate[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 2005, 48(6) : 1238～1249．
[16] 孙建奇,王会军.东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3) : 662～671． Sun J Q, Wang H J. Regional difference of summer air temperature anomalies in Northeast China and its relationship to atmospheric general circulation and sea surface temperature[J].Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(3) : 662～671．
[17] 毛江玉,吴国雄.青藏高原热状况和海温异常对亚洲季风季节转换年际变化的影响[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5) : 1279～1287． Mao J Y, Wu G X. Impacts of anomalies of thermal state over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and sea surface temperature on interannual variability of the Asian monsoon seasonal transition[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49 (5) : 1279～1287
[18] 莫嘉琪,林一骅,王辉.副热带圈和赤道太平洋海表温度年代际变更的海-气振子模型的研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(6) :1899～1902． Mo J Q, Lin Y H, Wang H. Study for the sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and the sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(6) : 1899～1902．
[19] 严华生,杨小波,马振锋.近60年全球大气环流经向模态的气候变化[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(6) :1658～1665． Yan H S, Yang X B, Ma Z F. Climatic variability in the meridional mode of global atmospheric circulation in the during recent 60 years [ J ]. Chinese J. Geophys. ( in Chinese), 2007, 50(6) :1658～1665．
[20] 陈际龙,黄荣辉.从经向气流看亚澳季风的季节区域特征[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(1) :70～76． Chen J L, Huang R H. Seasonal and regional features of the Asian-Australian monsoon as revealed by meridional flow[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 50(1) : 70～76．
[21] 韩瑛,伍荣生.冷空气入侵对热带气旋发生发展的影响[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1321～1332． Han Y, Wu R S. The effect of cold air intrusion on the development of tropical cyclone[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(5) :1321～1332．
[2] 占志明.厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件及其对南中国海和华南地区的气候异常影响.硕士论文,中山大学,2001． Zhan Z M. The El Nino and La Nina Events, and influence to climatic anomalies of the South China Sea and the Southren China. Essays of Master, Zhongshan University, 2001．
[3] 林振山,赵佩章,赵文桐.日食-厄尔尼诺系数及其应用[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(6) :732～737． Lin Z S, Zhao P Z, Zhao W T. The solar eclipse-nino coefficients and its application [J ]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 1999, 42(6) : 732～737．
[4] Kohonen T. Self-organized formation of topologically correct feature maps [J]. Biological Cybernetics, 1982, 43: 59～69． Kohonen T. Self-OOrganizing maps, 2nd edition [M]. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997．
[5] Kohonen T. Self-Organizing maps, 2nd edition [M], Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997.
[6] 刘敦文,徐国元,黄仁东,等.一种基于神经网络的探地雷达信号解释研究[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(1) :179～182． Liu D W, Xu G Y, Huang R D, et al. Study on a signal interpretation of GPR based on BP neural network [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2004,19(1) : 179～ 182．
[7] 徐海浪,吴小平.电阻率二维神经网络反演[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(2) :584～589． Xu H L, Wu X P. 2-D resistivity inversion using the neural network method [J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese),2006, 49(2) : 584～589．
[8] 曹思远,梁春生.储层预测中BP神经网络的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(1) :84～90． Cao S Y, Liang C S. The application of BP neural network in reservoir prediction[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2002,17(1) : 84～90．
[9] 林红波,李月,马海涛,等.混沌噪声背景下检测微弱信号的神经网络方法分析[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(4) :743～747． Lin H B, Li Y, Ma H T, et al. Analysis of neural network method for chaos-based weak harmonic signal detection[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2003,18(4) :743～747．
[10] 张小浩,周鼎武.径向基函数方法在南泥湾油田勘探中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(1) :213～217． Zhang X H, Zhou D W. Application of radial basis function in nan niwan oil field [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007,22(1) :213～217．
[11] 杨立强,王志章,熊琦华.复杂岩性储层参数评价中神经网络技术的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(1) :44～48． Yang L Q, Wang Z Z, Xiong Q H. Application of neural network in logging interpretation[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2003,18(1) :44～48．
[12] 郑庆生,韩大匡.高阶神经网络在储层分布参数[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :552～555． Zheng Q S, Han D K. Estimation of reservoir distribution parameters using higher order neural network spproach[J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2007,22 (2) : 552 ～ 555．
[13] 邱颖,孟庆武,李悌,等.神经网络用于岩性及岩相预测的可行性分析[J].地球物理学进展,2001,16(3) :76～84． Qiu Y, Meng Q W, Li T, et al. The feasibility analysis of neural network in the prediction of lithology and lithofacles [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2001,16(3) : 76～84．
[14] 丁柱,杨长春,陶宏根,等.神经网络反演双侧向电阻率测井曲线的物理约束[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(2) :331～336． Ding Z, Yang C C, Tao H G, et al. Physical restriction on model selection of neural network in dual-lateral log inversion [J]. Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese), 2002, 17 (2) : 331～336．
[15] 贾小龙,李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(6) :1238～1249． Jia X L, Li C Y. Dipole oscillation in the Southern Indian Ocean and its impacts on climate[J]. Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese), 2005, 48(6) : 1238～1249．
[16] 孙建奇,王会军.东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3) : 662～671． Sun J Q, Wang H J. Regional difference of summer air temperature anomalies in Northeast China and its relationship to atmospheric general circulation and sea surface temperature[J].Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(3) : 662～671．
[17] 毛江玉,吴国雄.青藏高原热状况和海温异常对亚洲季风季节转换年际变化的影响[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5) : 1279～1287． Mao J Y, Wu G X. Impacts of anomalies of thermal state over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and sea surface temperature on interannual variability of the Asian monsoon seasonal transition[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49 (5) : 1279～1287
[18] 莫嘉琪,林一骅,王辉.副热带圈和赤道太平洋海表温度年代际变更的海-气振子模型的研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(6) :1899～1902． Mo J Q, Lin Y H, Wang H. Study for the sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and the sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(6) : 1899～1902．
[19] 严华生,杨小波,马振锋.近60年全球大气环流经向模态的气候变化[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(6) :1658～1665． Yan H S, Yang X B, Ma Z F. Climatic variability in the meridional mode of global atmospheric circulation in the during recent 60 years [ J ]. Chinese J. Geophys. ( in Chinese), 2007, 50(6) :1658～1665．
[20] 陈际龙,黄荣辉.从经向气流看亚澳季风的季节区域特征[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(1) :70～76． Chen J L, Huang R H. Seasonal and regional features of the Asian-Australian monsoon as revealed by meridional flow[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 50(1) : 70～76．
[21] 韩瑛,伍荣生.冷空气入侵对热带气旋发生发展的影响[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1321～1332． Han Y, Wu R S. The effect of cold air intrusion on the development of tropical cyclone[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(5) :1321～1332．
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