1966年邢台大震的回顾性预测讨论

英文篇名：DISCUSSION ON RETROSPECTIVE PREDICTION OF 1966 XINGTAI LARGE EARTHQUAKE
中文刊名：内陆地震
英文刊名：Inland Earthquake
作者：郭增建 ; 郭安宁 ; 李亚荣 ; 张惠芳
英文作者：GUO Zeng-jian ; GUO An-ning ; LI Ya-rong ; ZHANG Hui-fang (Lanzhou Institute of Seismology ; CEA ; Lanzhou 730000 ; Gansu ; China)
中文关键词：邢台大震 ; 三性法 ; 异年倍九法 ; 不断拦截战略
英文关键词：Xingtai large earthquake ; triplet-character method ; method of multiple of nine-day in different year ; strategy of non-stop interception
出版日期：2006-06-30
机构：中国地震局兰州地震研究所,中国地震局兰州地震研究所,中国地震局兰州地震研究所,中国地震局兰州地震研究所甘肃兰州730000,甘肃兰州730000,甘肃兰州730000,甘肃兰州730000
年：2006
期：02
出版单位：内陆地震

摘要

用三性法按华北历史地震资料讨论了邢台大震的发生年份。三性是指周期性、倍周期性和每个周期的黄金分割性。用异年倍九法讨论了邢台大震的发生日期。异年倍九是指某地区某季节内历史大震的发生日期与后来地震发生的日期其差值呈倍九天关系。因为现在单一解的地震预报还很困难,所以三性法和异年倍九法所预测的年份和日期是若干个固定的时间,对此应采取“不断拦截”的预测战略。
With triplet-character method,the article discusses occurrence year of Xingtai earthquake with historical catalogue in north China.The triplet-characters means periodicity,multiple periodicity and golden section character of every period.The article discusses the occurrence date of Xingtai large event with the method of multiple of nine-day in different year.Multiple of nine-day in different year means that the difference between occurrence dates of historical large event and later event has a relation of multiple of nine-day during some season in some region.Since earthquake prediction with one method is difficult, prediction year and date with triplet-character method and method of multiple of nine-day in different year are several fixed time,and it is necessary to take prediction strategy of non-stop interception.

引文

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