辽宁地区震群序列特征及其性质判定方法的研究
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摘要
本文在以往研究震群性质及其预测方法的基础上,从统计的角度出发,结合"八五"和"九五"地震预报攻关成果中有关震群序列参数的分析方法,对1974年以来,在辽宁及其邻近地区发生的23个震群作了详细研究。根据这些震群时序分布的表象特征,将其分为四种类型:Ⅰ增强型;Ⅱ衰减型;Ⅲ增减型;Ⅳ双丛(峰)型。又根据这些震群参数及有关特征量的统计特征,经认真分析,给出了识别震群性质的标志和定量指标(其中有些是对老指标的修正),进而总结出了较适合辽宁地区的震群性质综合判定方法。同时,与以往判定震群性质的方法还作了比较研究,结果表明,本文方法较以往方法判定结果的质量、信度和科学性等方面都有所提高,因此,可作为辽宁地区中强震短临预报的参考依据。
Based on previous study on the natures of earthquake swarms and prediction methods and having combined the analysis methods of swarm parameters in research achievements during 8th-5 and 9th-5 year plan,23 earthquake swarms have been studied in detail,which occurred in Liaoning region and its near area since 1974.These swarms can be divided into four types according to apparent characteristics of their time-series distribution which are as follows:Ⅰ.increasing type;Ⅱ.attenuation type;Ⅲ.increase and decrease;Ⅳ.Double-peak one.The results maybe become a reference to determine swarm character(foreshock sequence,precursory swarm and non-precursory one).According to the statistic characteristics of the swarms parameters and related feature quantities,the signs and quantitative indexes(some of them are corrected old one) of judging swarm nature have been posed.Then the synthetic method of judging swarm nature suited to Liaoning region have been summarized.Meanwhile,as compared with previous judge method of swarm nature,quality of judge and creditability have been further improved by the method in this paper.Therefore,the result maybe becomes a reference of short-term and impending earthquake prediction in Liaoning region.
Based on previous study on the natures of earthquake swarms and prediction methods and having combined the analysis methods of swarm parameters in research achievements during 8th-5 and 9th-5 year plan,23 earthquake swarms have been studied in detail,which occurred in Liaoning region and its near area since 1974.These swarms can be divided into four types according to apparent characteristics of their time-series distribution which are as follows:Ⅰ.increasing type;Ⅱ.attenuation type;Ⅲ.increase and decrease;Ⅳ.Double-peak one.The results maybe become a reference to determine swarm character(foreshock sequence,precursory swarm and non-precursory one).According to the statistic characteristics of the swarms parameters and related feature quantities,the signs and quantitative indexes(some of them are corrected old one) of judging swarm nature have been posed.Then the synthetic method of judging swarm nature suited to Liaoning region have been summarized.Meanwhile,as compared with previous judge method of swarm nature,quality of judge and creditability have been further improved by the method in this paper.Therefore,the result maybe becomes a reference of short-term and impending earthquake prediction in Liaoning region.
引文
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[2]S.Crampin刘瑞文.地震预报试验的另一种方案[J].世界地震译丛,(7):10～14,1994.
[3]左兆荣,等.1966年邢台Ms7.2地震的前震序列分析[J].华北地震科学,13(2):7～15,1995.
[4]章光月,等.1975年2月4日海城地震(M=7.3)的前震序列[J].地震学报,5(1):1～14,1994.
[5]茂木清夫.地震前兆现象的产生机制[J].世界地震译丛,(4):8～14,1994.
[6]刘正荣,等.前震的一个标志—地震频度的衰减[J].地震研究,2(4):1～9,1979.
[7]林邦慧,等.前震和前震序列的研究[J].地震学报,16(增刊):24～48,1979.
[8]左兆荣,等.1975年辽宁海城Ms7.3地震的前震序列分析[J].地震学报,17(4):493～498,1995.
[9]许绍燮,等.海城地震前震系列与震群[J].地震学报,3(1):1～10,1981.
[10]王炜,等.利用Weibull分布研究华北地区前兆震群的特征[J].中国地震,3(4):13～21,1987.
[11]国家地震局预测预防司.测震学分析预报方法M(第一版)[M].北京:地震出版社,105～172,1997.
[12]孙文福,等.辽宁地区震群序列性质的研究[J].地震,20(4):63～68,2000.
[13]孙文福,等.关于1999年岫岩偏岭5.6级地震前震群序列性质的研究[J].东北地震研究,16(2):45～49,2000.
[14]孙文福,等.关于营口—海城震群性质的研究[J].东北地震研究,18(4):16～22,2002.
[15]孙文福,等.关于北宁震群性质及其意义的研究[J].东北地震研究,18(2):16～23,2002.
[16]蔡静观,等.云南地区各类前震序列时—空—强特征和地震波特征[J].地震学报,16(增刊):39～46,1994.
[17]顾浩鼎,等.前兆震群和S波偏振[J].地震学报,2(4):343～355,1980.
[18]周仕勇,等.地震序列研究综述[J].中国地震,15(3):268～277,1999.
[19]焦明若,等.细观非均匀性对岩石破裂过程和微震序列类型影响的数值试验研究[J].地球物理学报,46(5):659～666,2003.
[20]中国地震局编.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南(第一版)[M].北京:地震出版社,25～173,1998.
[21]力武常次.地震预报(第一版)[M].北京:地震出版社,109～128,1978.
[22]中国地震局监测预报司.强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究(第一版)[M].北京:地震出版社,40～43,2002.
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