地震成因及风险分析模型研究
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摘要
首先,介绍了地震形成的自然因素和非自然因素,并对其发生原因进行了分析和研究;其次,通过对1999-2009年间的地震现场的灾害调查资料和损失评估的资料进行研究,对其进行分析与处理,采取以实际烈度区作为分配单元,建立适用于县级区域小尺度的地震风险分析模型;最后基于烈度的地震分析模型与基于建筑物易损性地震分析模型预测结果进行比较,由此说明在县级区域小尺度上,地震风险分析模型的适用性。
We first introduced the earthquake causes which consist of the natural factors and unnatural factors.Second,we use data from the investigation of earthquake disasters and the information of disaster losses 1999-2009,gathering respective sections strength data of the population,the per capita GDP and the area of land,from evaluation information of earthquake disaster and statistics of the earthquake province when the earthquake happens.By analyzing and handling the above data,use virtual broken-level areas as allocation units and establish risk analysis model for medium and small scale earthquake of county.Comparison the two forecast results from the earthquake analysis model based on strength and building damage to prove that the earthquake analysis model based on strength is more suitable for medium and small scale county.Finally,we introduced some knowledge about self-protection when the earthquake happens.
We first introduced the earthquake causes which consist of the natural factors and unnatural factors.Second,we use data from the investigation of earthquake disasters and the information of disaster losses 1999-2009,gathering respective sections strength data of the population,the per capita GDP and the area of land,from evaluation information of earthquake disaster and statistics of the earthquake province when the earthquake happens.By analyzing and handling the above data,use virtual broken-level areas as allocation units and establish risk analysis model for medium and small scale earthquake of county.Comparison the two forecast results from the earthquake analysis model based on strength and building damage to prove that the earthquake analysis model based on strength is more suitable for medium and small scale county.Finally,we introduced some knowledge about self-protection when the earthquake happens.
引文
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[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良.2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊岛西近海Mw9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,2005,27(3):269-275.
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[2]Press F,Brace W F.Earthquake prediction.science[J].1966,152:1575-1584.
[3]许志琴,李海兵,吴忠良.汶川地震和科学钻探[J].地质学报,2008,82(12):1613-1622.
[4]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990-1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[5]中国地震局监测预报司.中国地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996-2000年)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001:45.
[6]楼宝堂.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良.2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊岛西近海Mw9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,2005,27(3):269-275.
[8]National Research Council of the National Academies.Living onan Active Earth[M].Washington D C,2000.
[9]何宏林,孙绍民,王世元.汶川Ms8.0地震地标破裂带[J].地震地质,2008,2:803-809.
[10]李海兵,王宗秀,付小芳,等.2008年5月12日汶川地震地表破裂带的分布特征[J].中国地质,2008,82(12):1623-1643.
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